I actually did this for the past game and when I was done with it I looked at it and said hmmm, Steelers are going to be harder than I initially thought and we could very well drop this game. So I will not do the same here. Maybe it will spark some nice conversation this week as well. I will try to be as objective as possible, but at the same time I am a Bills fan and you all know that so if I am missing something or wrong, point it out and provide reasons, I always like to learn. Then I end with HC and QB on their own. While I know QB doesn't go against QB, it is the only way to really look at it those two in a vacuum. So without further talk I am going to get into it..
Bills on Offense:
OL vs DL (Push) - Before the Steelers game and even with the issues they have (will get into this I would have said Advantage Bills. After the Steelers game I will downgrade my initial thinking to a push, but that is a close push as well, I Almost was going to give a Fins the advantage here, but it was only one game. Now the Bills are bringing back the same OL that they had last year and while that is all well and good because the line last year was really good. There are some issues within it. Dion Dawkins is not close to, and likely will never be in true playing shape this year after his big fight with COVID. He is lighter (I think he mentioned like 30 pounds lost) and not as strong. One thing about this is In Season it is almost impossible to add weight and strength. So I do not think we will see the real Dawkins at all this year, but he needs to get Solid, was tagged for 3 holding calls against Steelers. Feliciano another player that for some reason (not COVID related) decided to come into camp 20 pounds lighter than he normally is. To date he no Bills have really addressed why, only thing we have heard it was his personal choice and not related to any program Bills had him on. And it showed, he was ABUSED by the bigger and stronger Heyward. Morse has always had anchor problems against powerful DTs so those two got abused by Heyward. Ford did not have a good game, but he wasnt far off what he normally is, I just think this is his last year in Buffalo and ready to move on from him. Williams was as Solid as he could have been against Watt but also was tagged with a Hold. The thing is though Fins do not have a Heyward, Ingram and a Watt, there is a step down in the DL talent here, so unlike Steelers I do not think Fins will be able to consistently get pressure with 3 and 4 like Steelers did. So for this game right now I am going Push here.
WR/TEs vs DBs (Advantage Bills) - Before I start this I know your top DBs are really good in the NFL. However going with the overall depth, and the love of Man Coverage that give the Advantage Bills here. In 4 wide sets they will have Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Davis at WR. I put that as an advantage Bills here especially in man concepts, Diggs, Beasley and Sanders are probably all top 10 in terms of route running. They will get separation. I do think you easily take away Knox (I am not high on him at all, I know some are but not me). I tried to watch as much as I could in the preseason and week 1 to see your Zone concepts as Bills have struggled against zones in the past, I just do not see anywhere I can move this into a push here. And because of the man coverage that you run and not having the horses upfront IMO this could be a long day for the secondary.
RBs vs LBers (Push) - I so want to make this an advantage Bills but coaching tells me no. I do think with Singletary and an Active (not a healthy scratch Moss) Bills could really exploit your LBers both in the pass game but more importantly in the run. I just think we are really good to hand the ball off a ton against you and would win this game, but that is NOT going to happen, that isnt what these new Bills are, so that being said the Bills will take their own run game out of it. Now every week since 2020 I saw a good run matchup and thought the Bills would exploit it (even Sunday), they refused to do so. So because of that I will never put advantage Bills in this line again, until they show me they are willing to do it. Last week Moss being inactive for Brieda and Jones (when coach says it is a numbers game and those two are VITAL on ST, the same ST that allowed a blocked punt), I question that decision. I wish the Bills would hand the ball off maybe 10 more times a gam, but I am starting to get to the point that isnt going to happen.
Bills on Defense
OL vs DL (Push) - I liked how the Bills DL started off Sunday, I hated how it ended with them. But Without Star they held their own and played really well against Steelers Run game. Early in the game they were getting around Ben and disrupting him, but then at the end of the game seemed to disappear, now I know that also could have been because Ben went into his get the ball out immediately mode. But this is a work in progress for them. Only reason I didnt go advantage Phins here and maybe I can be talked into it is because I just dont see your OL that good at all. Granted that is an outsider view looking in and when I watch your games I do not watch multiple times to focus on each unit, so I might be missing something here. What I will say though is the Bills will rotate their DEs alot (Hughes and Groot will start) but Addision, Epenesa, Obada will get plenty of rotations, I am not sure what the plan is for Basham as he was a healthy scratch last week as they kept extra DTs up due to Star being out. This will be an area that they will have to win, in order to help out the next group.
WRs/TEs vs DBs (Advantage Fins) - Its been awhile since I thought that against the Bills Secondary against the Fins, but here we are. Tre will take away one player, I am not sure who they would put him on. Sometimes he shadows, sometimes he plays a side. I would imagine him shadowing and taking Parker the entire game which he will and should win that individual matchup. The rest of the secondary I am not as confident about. Levi Wallace was abused Sunday against Steelers, Ben said ok not throwing at Tre (he tried once and was picked, called back on a phantom D hold), but just went after Wallace and to a lesser extent Johnson (he is a solid NB). The Silver lining, ever since Wallace has put a uniform on for the Bills he has a clunker (Sunday) and normally followed by 2-3 really top end games, so in that pattern I shouldn't worry about him but I do. The issue is depth, If MIA OL can hold up and you can trot a 4th and 5th WR and keep Tua clean it could be a long day for the Bills secondary. Milano will be able to handle Gesicki, if not it falls to Poyer and Hyde and I am fine with those matchups as well.
RBs vs LBers (Advantage Bills) - Sorry this might sound hard, not worried a Bit here, we just faced Steelers and Harris and was fine. Edmunds and Milano are two of the top LBers in the league IMO and I have no worries about this position battle.
ST vs ST - (Advantage Phins) - I love our Kicker and with yours thats a Push as well. I hate our Punter, I get why the Bills signed him for holding something Bojo could NEVER get right, but by doing so they downgraded in actual punting. Also traded a HUGE KEY ST player in Johnson to Carolina is hurting them. I like McKenzie as a Return man (though his is dinged up) Stevenson who would be the return man is on IR, I am scared to death of your return game.
HC (Push) - I think Both teams are very well coached and will be ready for the game. I think McD fixes himself on his in game management mistakes he had Sunday.
QB (Advantage Bills) - Gonna keep this short as I dont want to make it sound like an attack. But at this time Allen is a better QB and more advanced in his progression timeline in the NFL.
There is my thinking on the position groups, have fun fragging away and look forward to the discussion this week. Win or lose I will be back early next week (as long as I dont get a timeout for some reason).
