First round Lb? Does it make sense for Miami

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by NJPHINFAN79, Feb 6, 2018.

  1. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins Finheaven VIP

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    Wow, I never realized we had invested so little in the most important position. 6 QB's out of the 131 draft picks. We did trade for some duds, Fiedler and Dante and got lucky with P10

    Break down of those picks by position

    WR - 18
    LB - 18
    TACKLE - 16
    DB -16
    RB - 12
    DT - 10
    DE - 9
    TE - 8
    GUARD - 7
    QB - 6
    CENTER -3
    CB - 3
    SAFETY - 2
    NT -1
    PUNTER - 1
    KICKER - 1

    DEFENSE - 59
    O LINE - 26
    SKILLS - 44
    P/K -2
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
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  2. Avigatorx

    Avigatorx Sec. 107 Row 2 Finheaven VIP

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    He looks lost when he drops into coverage, watch the film's.

    Just go in by what I see during games.
     
  3. BahamaFinFan78

    BahamaFinFan78 A True Fan

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    BPA. There is not a position on this team that does not need an infusion of young talent.
     
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  4. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins Finheaven VIP

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    According to the drafts going back to 2001 we have never taken a Linebacker higher than 2nd round. Misi, Eddie Moore. Until last year when we took Harand McMillian last year.

    Also of those 130 draft picks only 1 turned into All-Pro selection. Jake Long for 1 year. That is some poor drafting.

    I guess Harris was technically a LB last year but we drafted him to be DE
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  5. Eesti

    Eesti Rookie Finheaven VIP

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    I'm just as concerned about the front 4 as I am the LB's. Still a lot of question marks there, IMO. We gave up far too many TD's on the ground last year and were not getting to the QB near enough.
     
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  6. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Curious . . . how many QBs did Miami draft OR sign as FAs during that time? Quite a few. It isn't as if there was no attempt.
    And Penny is an example of getting lucky. That's the problem with all positions - it takes luck. Not discounting talent, because some are just better at identifying talent. BUT, regardless how good or bad a team's evaluators are, luck is always there.
    And selecting 6 QBs in 16 years is fairly often, given teams generally give a QB 3 years before moving on. Nor do we want to forget there are 3 LBs to 1 QB so 18 to 6 is the same emphasis. The one position that jumps off the page is Safety. 2 in 16 years for a position needing 2 at a time?
     
  7. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins Finheaven VIP

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    That is strange about the safety. One thing to keep in mind the draft results shows what the player was in college. So they could be CB converted to safety when they reach pros. only thing that makes sense.

    Looking at the list of 131 draft picks and my best 3 in no specific order are

    Ronnie Brown
    Ryan Tannehill
    Jarvis Landry
     
  8. Anvil35

    Anvil35 Leave Users Titles Alone!! Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I disagree, I think we would have a hard time passing on Nelson if he is there...
     
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  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Perennial All-Pro

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    I’m not either, I know he’s young but I dont see the necessary instincts and vision from the player, and at the next level he will get more exposed and lost..just not right at 11 for me..
     
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  10. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    I can get on board with this DEF:
    Jones Eliot TJ Howard Tank
    Edmunds Raekwon
    Front 4
    Also subbing in an additional DE for a Bear Front or McCain for a big Dime
    The only issue I have with this:
    1. We are allocating 2 premium picks on Def.
    2. Can Edmunds cover RBs in what will be a base Nickel
    3. Is Edmunds BPA at 11
    4. Does the pick really work without additionally obtaining Elliot. Meaning we can't bank on Elliot being available. Alternatives?
     
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  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Edmunds and Elliott would be a phenomenal start for Miami, but I'd bet against Elliott being available.
     
  12. outlawd2u

    outlawd2u Pro Bowler

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    This... I couldn't agree more!
     
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  13. NoblePhin

    NoblePhin Starter Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Getting a top LB like Edmunds or Raashan Evans, and a FS in the 2nd would be ideal. Nickel has been our base D, and we have to stop the run and pass from the nickel. Evans and Raekwon with TJ and Jones in the middle would be pretty flexible and make teams weary of running/throwing in the middle.
     
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  14. Tureo

    Tureo Seasoned Veteran

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    I would love to add competition in the form of a potential starter at qb but looking at the eagles and jags makes me lean heavily towards the defense. The eagles obviously beat the pats amd the jags came close. Both have studs on d although Philly got smoked on d. I guess it goes back to finding an identity as a defensive or offensive team.
     
  15. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

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    We do tend to agree a lot ... because we usually end up being right. But I also respectfully and humongously disagree about both the top 5 guys from both years and the depth. Foster, Davis, Kwon, Cunningham, and McKinley (I won't be that guy and add Watt because I wasn't super high on him - I was probably wrong there. Reddick and Bowser were kinda meh to me too) absolutely blow the LBs you posted (Edmunds and Jefferson would be there ... I might slide Moore, Evans, and Kiser in front of a few of those other ones. Someone needs to show me the tape where Smith shows coverage instincts because I just can't get behind a thumper who's smaller than all of our safeties. Decent prospect. 11? What???) out of the water. I'd take any of them over any of those 5.

    Smith would have to be a coverage dynamo for me to get behind that, Edmunds is potential galore and if he hits some of those combine marks at 19 years old ... gonna be tough to ignore ... but he clearly needs development, Vander Esch doesn't use his size like he should and doesn't look to be real athletic anyhow ... he could be exposed in underpants, I like Jefferson as well but nothing really jumps off the page for me ... he just looks all around solid but unspectacular ... and I'm having a tough time pegging a position for him ... if I was more comfortable with his instincts in the middle (overall, really) I'd be pumping him up pretty hard, and Sam who is in the same boat with Kiser and Jewell who need to run well at the combine to avoid the dreaded '2 down' label.

    I just don't see the warts with last year's group. Foster had the most blemishes but also the most talent ... ultimate boom or bust ... Canton bound if he can keep it up. I wish I saw Foster when I watch Smith.

    And there's no way they're going to test as well ... top 5 or entire class. 4.6s like it was cool all day ... this group won't touch that. Smith is the only sure thing except for maybe Butler, O'Daniel, and Scales ... who all have no choice but to test great with their less than ideal size and instincts. When we compare the two groups combine numbers here shortly it's going to be night and day.

    I saw a long list of LBs I'd be comfortable using picks on last year. I honestly could've gone LB and S in every round with how it played out ... hypothetically, of course. There are maybe 10 this year that I have an eye on but every single one of them have question marks that has me keeping the safety on. Last year Davis had people knocking (rightly so) his instincts but he's miles ahead of Jefferson. Stuff like that.

    I like Moore better than all of them so I could just be crazy.
     
  16. Third Eye

    Third Eye Scout Team Finheaven VIP

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    The Patriots, with Brady, have drafted 9 QBs since drafting Brady. Think about that.

    I disagree with your statement that this is about luck. You can get lucky or unlucky occasionally (say a draft pick overdoses the next day) but over time superior talent evaluation wins out. Some systems are far better than others. Miami has flat out failed in this area for far far too long.
     
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  17. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Sorry for not being clearer, but I was not including pass-rush LB's like Watt, Bowser, and Reddick.

    Disagree about Davis having better instincts than Jefferson . Jefferson guesses sometimes, but he's much sharper and quicker to react than Davis. Coming into the season, I was in wait-and-see mode with him, because I was concerned about his ability to see the play and react in time, but the move to OLB did him well. If you watch Jefferson and Edmunds' games vs Oklahoma State, you'll notice that Jefferson is currently the better LB, who gets in on more plays, but Edmunds is 1 1/2 years younger.

    Disagree on Vander Esch. He's big and fast, and he bodies OL at the POA. That's something that Jefferson, Edmunds, and Vander Esch share. If they get a shoulder in the backfield, OL won't wash them away from the play. Vander Esch isn't as long as Cunningham, and his instincts vs the run are a half-level lower, but he sees the pass better, and he looks significantly faster and more explosive. Cunningham ran in the 4.7's.

    In we compare Foster, Cunningham, McMillan, and Davis to Smith, Edmunds, Jefferson, and Vander Esch (leaving out Christian Sam to make it 4 vs 4), we should probably look at the similar players.

    Foster vs Smith - give me Smith, who looks faster and sees the play a little quicker, and is 2 years younger than Foster was coming out. Foster does have a better frame.

    Davis vs Jefferson - I'll take Jefferson, who makes more plays, has a better frame, and is probably even more athletic. They're almost exactly the same age leaving school.

    Cunningham vs Vander Esch - again, give me the 2018 guy, who has more speed, strength, and makes more plays in the passing game, without sacrificing much vs the run. Vander Esch is just slightly younger than Cunningham was.

    McMillan vs Edmunds - these guys aren't as similar as the other pairings, with McMillan being more of an ILB, but Edmunds is the better prospect. He's more fluid, bigger, stronger, and he makes more impact plays. He's also 1 1/2 years younger than McMillan was coming out of Ohio State.

    With regard to off-ball LB's, 2017 had a good group, with these guys ranging from late-1st to early-2nd RD players. 2018's top guys range from early-1st to mid-1st.
     
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  18. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    Doesn’t have to be Elliott frankly. Just would need a centerfield option for dime. Who those ideal guys are in this class I don’t know.

    But if we take Edmunds at 11 my focus would pivot towards acquiring that dime piece at some point.

    I would probably agree that at 43 Elliott seems unlikely to be there listed at 6 foot 2 and 210 (is that legit or is it like most college kids being fudged a little?) probably runs in the 4.5s at times I think horizontally his feet are faster than his top end speed that it takes him longer than his feet suggest it would to cover some ground but that may just be a wider college field than anything else I can’t put my finger on it exactly. That kid has a real knack for being in position to make good on errant throws I think he’s a little flat footed on some stuff doesn’t have the smoothest pedal in some regards the flat footed side looks more like a strong safety to me. Kind of has a tweener feel to me is he strong is he free is a mix of both that’s probably where I’d lean. Game looks a little more Eric berry than earl Thomas to me.

    Anyways Marcus Williams was 6 foot 1 202 lbs ran 4.56 and he went pick 42 last year. And he had a better pedal his feet were beautiful in his pedal and had better true centerfield range and ideal fit to boot. In what I would say talent wise was a better draft overall class.

    So I wouldn’t rule out Elliott being there at 43. Nor would I be all in on it if my need was package dime centerfield option so I can move tj McDonald around
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  19. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase Finheaven VIP

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    Miami needs to draft a defender that can play multiple spots, ala Malcom Jenkins in Philly.

    Derwin James is the man I’m going to be hammering for all offseason because of that. He can play in the box, he can cover TEs and RBs, he can tackle and lay the wood, he can play deep and has the range and speed to stop big plays..

    Drafting him also gives Miami the ability to put Jones in the box more consistently. He may lack coverage instincts but his run stopping ability in the box is 2nd to none from the S spot, he has LB like instincts and ability to get around blocks.

    Miami needs an elite chess piece on defense.
     
  20. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    Derwin james biggest weakness that I see is true centerfield play. It’s better than tj or reshad but I wouldn’t call it a true strength

    Nor would I check off that dime centerfield box with this add. Although I might give it a year to see how it goes.

    James would be doing a lot of carrying coverage for me vs size some hybrid package stuff and some 2 deep safety and interchangeable safety ask mixed in plus some package man cover slot run
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
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  21. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase Finheaven VIP

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    He’s no Earl Thomas, but I trust him covering TEs and RBs than I do anyone on Miami’s defense.
     
  22. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek Finheaven VIP

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    Totally cool with the comps as I was going to do the same thing. Foster/Smith and Davis/Jefferson comp very favorably. Gets a little dicey after that. I'd probably go Cunningham/Edmunds because McMillan/Sam makes sense but then you're left with Evans/Vander Esch ... idk about that last one.

    Davis v Jefferson - they moved Jefferson outside because his instincts in the middle weren't good enough. He's not the finisher and enforcer Davis is either. Dude can really move so he might test as well but I'm struggling to find an area where he has a distinct advantage. I guess I'll give you the frame although Jefferson has sort of an awkward body with what appears to be a head the size of Sputnik. Super ripped though.

    Smith v Foster - you have lost your mind if Smith is the choice here. Foster checked every box except those precarious injury and character ones. He's what you want at MLB - a heat seeking missile mercenary. He has that dog in him that the undersized guys must have to be successful at the next level. Explodes through the hole to deliver a nasty blow. Smith isn't any of that. His unbelievable speed, quickness, and agility make up for what he lacks in tenacity but I think it's fooling people. He covers so much ground that it's tough to see he's a step or 2 slow reacting to the play. If he didn't move so well I'd go out on a limb and say he'd be labeled as a 2 down player because his lack of feel for the passing game. It is not a strength of his. And I just refuse to get over how teeny tiny he looks out there. Got shoulders like a corner. Foster had actual injury concerns (at neck to boot) but I'm still way more comfortable with him taking an NFL pounding than Smith ... because he has the frame to put on good weight ... like he's done in the past.

    Cunningham v Vander Esch - again ... what? Cunningham has instincts Vander Esch dreams about. Cunningham's knocks were he misses a ton of tackles (not an issue in Houston with non Vandy coaching), a frame that may not facilitate weight gain and could cause durability issues (this was my knock but no injuries last season), and a lack of feel in the passing game (which I disagreed with and he was more than adequate last year). Vander Esch ... where do I get started? He gets pushed around too much for my liking at that size against that competition. He should look like a bully out there at his size ... instead I see him getting washed out in the running game against guys who will be done playing football after graduation. I wouldn't call either player explosive but I'd say Cunningham gets the nod because of his ability to see the play and hit the hole quicker ... Vander Esch is a tick slow to read and react. Vander Esch won't ever process a play quick enough to jump a snap count and envelop a kicker before he even gets to the ball the way Cunningham did. I honestly haven't paid a ton of attention to him in the passing game because I don't necessarily see NFL teams having him drop in coverage all that often, but I have been less than impressed. I don't see them as anywhere near the same levels of talent or NFL readiness.

    What am I missing here? You loved Cunningham last year, as did I. I haven't seen you gush about Vander Esch the same way. Cunningham was a prepackaged NFL prospect ready to step in and start day 1. Vander Esch looks to need some coaching and development before he's ready to go. He does look to be stronger and has a better NFL body than Cunningham, so I will concede that.

    McMillan v Edmunds - agreed these guys are worlds apart but I value them both in the same range. Edmunds moves so well at his size and is so good at the POA that some team is gonna project the hell out of him at 19. These are the kinds of players you project once they get proper development - giant 19 year olds who don't seem to have any physical or athletic limitations. In other words, not Charles Harris.

    The only reason a lot of those guys got to the 2nd is because how freakishly deep the draft was at almost every position. It was uncanny and we'll be wishing we loaded up when we had the chance for some time. This year I'm liking QB, DE, DT, and CB ... of which the Dolphins might pass up altogether. Funny how they consistently don't take advantage of what the draft has to offer.

    Been a while since we've done this J. I need to post more.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  23. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    You are right- it doesn't have to be Elliot.
    The key to taking this DEF to next level IMO is a dynamic 3 down LB and a ball hawk safety.
    Believe we agree there.
    I don't see these options available in FA..
     
  24. theOutback

    theOutback Well-Known Member

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    Really???? Wow I didn't know that....
     
  25. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    We disagree. I suppose NE had no luck Brady was still there in R6? No luck for Minn that John Randall went undrafted? Or, let's flip it. What if Leaf were drafted by Indy and LA were 'forced' to take Manning? What if one more team needed a DE before Houston and they missed JJ Watt? There is definitely luck in the draft. Yes, evaluation is VERY important, but accurate evaluation can only succeed if the opportunity is available. Even then, by far, most evaluators have any given player ranked close to all the other teams (NE had Brady as R6 after all), so it's not as though 3-4 teams see talent the others don't. Plus, in any given year, the draft is 'strong' in a particular position and 'weak' in others. Teams have no control over that. It's called luck.
     
  26. phinschamp45

    phinschamp45 Well-Known Member

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    What needs to happen is the dolphins need to draft a qb in the first round.
     
  27. phinschamp45

    phinschamp45 Well-Known Member

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    If he isnt any good then draft another qb in the first and so on until we draft the right one. I know this also involves luck but if we try enough times eventually we will find a keeper.


    What we have been doing in the last 20 years, drafting Oline in the first ect hasnt been working.

    So do something different and maybe we will find a way to get to the playoffs consistently..
     
  28. Third Eye

    Third Eye Scout Team Finheaven VIP

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    Wow now that you put it that way I guess the draft is in fact luck.

    The isolated occurrences alone appear to be luck. And individually they may be. But team's that continually do well overall in the draft aren't lucky.

    It's like saying a guy drawing a queen on the river to win a big pot with a straight is lucky. He may have been lucky right there but to win the table is not luck.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  29. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Thanks for the comments. To me, it's like picking stocks. There are people very good at it and people who aren't, but luck plays a part. On that same thought, teams, just like gamblers, hit lucky streaks. When an expert is helped by a lucky streak, it's impressive
     
  30. Third Eye

    Third Eye Scout Team Finheaven VIP

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    There's more skill than luck in talent evaluation. There's a reason teams like NE consistently do well even though picking at the bottom of every round for 15 years while teams like Miami have done poorly over the same length of time. Trading up to pick a guy like Dion jordan third overall is not bad luck. It's bad talent evaluation.
     
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  31. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    I don't see any LB comparable to Reuben Foster in this draft. Foster is a rare talent. He is Keuchly, Ray Lewis, idk any other superlatives. He is so damn devastating he ends up hurting himself. His instincts are beyond compare and he hits through people. He is already top 5 MLB.
     
  32. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Foster is a good LB, but he's not in Keuchly or Lewis' range. He wasn't coming out of Alabama, and he wasn't as a rookie for SF. Foster was not - at all - a clean prospect coming out of Alabama, with health and character being the two big red flags. He only played 10 games as a rookie, and he's already gotten himself in trouble this off season. Foster doesn't have tier-1 instincts like Keuchly and Lewis. While he made plays at SF, he also gave up plays by being late to react, and he doesn't make plays on the ball in the passing game. The latter criticism can also be applied to Roquan Smith, but Smith is much, much cleaner than Foster - doesn't have the health or character concerns, and, as I mentioned earlier, he's 2 years younger than Foster was coming out of Alabama. Smith also totaled 85 solo tackles to Foster's 60, so he found the ball at a notably higher rate than Foster did. Their instincts look similar, but Smith is faster. So, in Smith, you have a guy with more room for growth, more speed, more production, and you have a guy who doesn't come with health and character concerns.

    I'd rather not draft a LB in the 1st that only plays 10 games and gets into trouble. I don't really care how good his hit highlights look.
     
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  33. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think you need to re-read my post which I've pasted below. Nowhere did I say 'luck' in evaluation. evaluation IS talent (although it is a messy inexact exercise (e.g., Brady and Gloulston). My point is evaluation is not relevant if the targeted player is already gone or EVERYONE'S evaluation is wrong (Zack Thomas). Evaluating a player as the only R1 talent at his position does no good if he's gone at a team's R1 pick. Someone posted data showing an 'elite' QB comes around every 3-4 years. What if a team needs a QB when the top prospect is Bortles? Or, more generously, it's a 'weak' class for QBs? There is a LOT of luck in the draft. Luck in opportunity, not in evaluation.

    <previous post>
    I suppose NE had no luck Brady was still there in R6? No luck for Minn that John Randall went undrafted? Or, let's flip it. What if Leaf were drafted by Indy and LA were 'forced' to take Manning? What if one more team needed a DE before Houston and they missed JJ Watt? There is definitely luck in the draft. Yes, evaluation is VERY important, but accurate evaluation can only succeed if the opportunity is available. Even then, by far, most evaluators have any given player ranked close to all the other teams (NE had Brady as R6 after all), so it's not as though 3-4 teams see talent the others don't. Plus, in any given year, the draft is 'strong' in a particular position and 'weak' in others. Teams have no control over that. It's called luck.
     
  34. FanMarino

    FanMarino HOF Pass Master

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    Getting Raekwon McMillan back who hasn't played a down in regular season is an extra pick up for 2018. A 1st Rounder LBer this draft is a great addition. Huge upgrade to that unit. 2 Linebackers who are 1st and 2nd rounders added instantly. I hope the Phins do it. Instant fix in my mind. No brainer.
     
  35. Third Eye

    Third Eye Scout Team Finheaven VIP

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    Luck in opportunity. Brady, Randall, Z Thomas as gems. We all get that. Each draft pick on its own has luck of opportunity, but if teams hold to their beliefs of BPA then, over time, teams should be doing better than what we have seen from Miami all these years. Is your point to excuse the epic and repeated failure of the Fins front office for 15 years plus?

    Bottom line is Miami needs to draft a QB. They need a good one. They also need other positional help including LB, WR, OL, DL. There should be NO lack of opportunity in every round if Miami could properly and consistently uncover players that will pan out.

    Instead they repeatedly draft guys with "dead eyes syndrome" - Tunsil, Parker, Jordan to name just a few. Miami simply cannot get past the measurables and into the minds of these kids to see what really motivates them.
     
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  36. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    How's that for timing?
     
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  37. Albert Romano

    Albert Romano Super Donator Super Donator Finheaven VIP

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    Was about to post the Foster news, I was worried about the player more from a health standpoint but wow. So that’s twice arrested correct? Guess San Fran is in the LB market.
     
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  38. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    My points are two
    1) luck affects all 32 teams
    2) skill isn't the only factor. Reality is messed than many admit
     
  39. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Wow! thats 2 times in his first offseason... Bright future!
     
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  40. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    well now that's 2 teams Edmunds must get past san fran and Oakland...san fran 34 silb thumper...foster was playing out of position if he wasn't the 34 wilb in san fran

    Zach Cunningham was a much better prospect than most the kids in this lb class... the texas kid might be more of a north south missile but his feel for the position doesn't come close to cunninghams...

    matthew Thomas on day 3 is interesting but evidently he has an extensive injury history...game looks wlb but athlete doesn't look ideal for it...solid player though...his smarts as a wolb would have to offset the athlete...that's hard to do at the nfl level...poa play meh and a little light in the pants considering the athlete

    sam looks 2 downish to me...thumper type...poor mans vontaze burflict maybe...faster but instincts not on the same level

    best bargain is josey jewell

    vander esch and darius leonard most upside although id categorize leonards as a little risky

    all but matthew Thomas hear their names called in the first 2 days...possibly sam joins him depending on what he runs

    steer clear of the texas kid cause the explosion athlete for his size is gonna get him overdrafted
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2018
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