First Round Targets

[Birdmond]

You have to wonder how much of a fit they believe Josh Allen to be if they didn't feel like T.J. Watt was a fit for their bogus system.

BTW...I just happened to flip over to the Pitt/NE game yesterday with about 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and the very first thing I saw was Watt lined up with his hand on the ground rushing from the DE position and sacking Tom Brady.

Miami's front office are football geniuses.

Did we get a quote from someone stating Watt wasn’t a fit ? I was only worried about the injury history. I’m not sure how the combine goes for Josh Allen but I’d be pleased if he were on the board when Miami picks.

 

[BobDole]

Did we get a quote from someone stating Watt wasn’t a fit ? I was only worried about the injury history. I’m not sure how the combine goes for Josh Allen but I’d be pleased if he were on the board when Miami picks.

Allen is going to make the combine his bitch. Such a better prospect than Watt because there is so much more in the arsenal. He'll test, stop the run, and cover better. Watt is basically a pure pass rusher, which is fine, but a smart D coordinator can do so much more with a player like Allen.

I'm a 3-4, 4-3 over guy so players like Allen are the dream scenario.

 

[Geordie]

It's QB all the way for me. Until we fix that problem picking the best Defensive lineman or Cornerback or whatever is completely irrelevant we'll still be middle of the pack. There are three QBs I would be aggressive for Murray, Haskins and Herbert (assuming they all declare, be just our luck that none of them do ). If Lock fell to us I would have no hesitation in taking him. Where we are picking there is a distinct likelihood that none of those four are available and we haven't found a trade partner, in that case I would be taking the best DE or Linebacker on my board, or looking for a trade down. 2019 needs to be a transistional season if we want to get anywhere as a franchise. Bringing back Tannehill only serves to get us to another .500 or thereabouts year, I say sell the farm, cut or ideally trade Tannehill for cap space and possibly more draft capital. If we still can't get our QB, wait till 2020 and hope we don't win 8 games again next year.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I love the thread. Thank you for this.

Currently Miami is slated to pick #17 in the round. But it's really hard to tell how things will shake out. They could drop two more games and pick higher. They could win both games and pick lower. They could trade up for a quarterback (which I believe is the most likely thing to happen). They could find that Justin Herbert and Dwayne Haskins BOTH stay in school, that Kyler Murray is the only guy worth trading up for, and that he's going to go too high to be in reach.

Really, I think, we're going to end up just spinning our wheels talking about 1st round prospects that aren't quarterbacks. One way or another, whether it's to get hold of Murray/Herbert/Haskins, or whether it's in a trade for a guy like Matt Stafford or Derek Carr, I think that pick is going to be used on that position. I'm not saying I agree with it, although I'm clearly in the tank for Kyler Murray.

But if we have to look at non-QBs in the mid-1st round I think you start with some of the best players in the 1st round because you never know who will trickle their way down. There was a time when nobody expected Minkah Fitzpatrick to make it to the #11 pick. Derwin James made it to the #17 pick.

On that basis, I find it difficult to ignore SENIORS at the top, particularly because the way the draft tends to work out, the juniors all float to the top and some of the best seniors will end up available in the middle of the 1st round. So I'm looking at these seniors...

LB Josh Allen, Kentucky
DT Christian Wilkins, Clemson
DE Montez Sweat, Mississippi State
CB DeAndre Baker, Georgia
OL Dalton Risner, Kansas State
WR David Sills V, West Virginia

Then you start to get into the JUNIORS and of course it gets dicey because you don't know which guys will come out or not. But I think you've got to look at

DE Nick Bosa, Ohio State
DE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
DE Rashaan Gary, Michigan
DE Brian Burns, Florida State
DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama
DT Ed Oliver, Houston
LB Devin White, LSU
LB Jachai Polite, Florida
S Deionte Thompson, Alabama
CB Greedy Williams, LSU
CB Byron Murphy, Washington
TE T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
TE Noah Fant, Iowa
OT Jonah Williams, Alabama
WR D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
WR N'Keal Harry, Arizona
WR Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, Oklahoma
WR A.J. Brown, Ole Miss

Just to note, Jeffery Simmons would be there except I just don’t know that a team can afford to use a 1st round pick on a player that has THAT video floating around. He didn’t just get “physical” with a female. This was far and away worse than Kareem Hunt’s video, and worse even than Joe Mixon’s video. Jeffery Simmons leaned over a female half his size, who was on the ground and defenseless, and pummeled her head with his fists. He’s been a good student and has apologized for the incident many times, explained how it came about, etc...but the fact of the matter is that video still makes the rounds and to me, it’s as bad as the Ray Rice video, which ended Rice’s career. He may not be off boards entirely, because he was still just a recruit when it happened, and he’s tried very hard to turn his life around since. However, he doesn’t go in the 1st round when every report about that 1st round pick will feature that video.

Drafting Kyle Murray would probably mean Miami would lead the league in rushing. He is very much Lamar Jackson in that sense. A little on the small side, but runs that Oklahoma offense very well and it's similar to what many NFL teams are now doing. Watching the defense trying to react to him on the move is almost humorous. It's like he's running at an entirely different speed.

Will Miami go quarterback? I think they have to at some point since Ryan Tannehill has missed so much time. It would also, in essence, press the reset button for Adam Gase maybe buying him some additional time.

 

[mrbunglez]

I honestly don’t want to pick up a qb just for the sake of picking one up. I just can’t get into any of the QBs in 2019 in round 1. Maybe Haskins, but I wouldn’t give up the farm for a guy like Herbert or Lock.

 

[mmikel30]

I like Derrick Brown DT Auburn nasty physical player, love to get him or D White. Round 2 the center from Miss. St Jenkins

 

[Birdmond]

I like Derrick Brown DT Auburn nasty physical player, love to get him or D White. Round 2 the center from Miss. St Jenkins

We’re kind of on the same page. I’ve been advocating DT in round one and center in round two for a while. If I had to bet though I’d say DE in round one and CB in round two.

 

[Geordie]

I honestly don’t want to pick up a qb just for the sake of picking one up. I just can’t get into any of the QBs in 2019 in round 1. Maybe Haskins, but I wouldn’t give up the farm for a guy like Herbert or Lock.

Fixing the problem is all that really matters though, holding out for 2020's class to me is broken strategy as there is little depth outside of Tua and perhaps Fromm there, we'll have to move up for them because in that scenario we bring back Tannehill and you know what record we finish with with him under center. In my view you make a move now for someone, if it doesn't work out, make another move next year, rinse and repeat until it sticks. Haskins, Murray and to a degree Herbert too are prospects worth rolling the dice on. Lock and Grier if they fell to us (Grier in the 2nd) would be another pair that I would try to see if they stick, both have the potential to be Tannehill 2.0 (or Henne 3.0 whichever way you want to look at it) though.

 

[mrbunglez]

Fixing the problem is all that really matters though, holding out for 2020's class to me is broken strategy as there is little depth outside of Tua and perhaps Fromm there, we'll have to move up for them because in that scenario we bring back Tannehill and you know what record we finish with with him under center. In my view you make a move now for someone, if it doesn't work out, make another move next year, rinse and repeat until it sticks. Haskins, Murray and to a degree Herbert too are prospects worth rolling the dice on. Lock and Grier if they fell to us (Grier in the 2nd) would be another pair that I would try to see if they stick, both have the potential to be Tannehill 2.0 (or Henne 3.0 whichever way you want to look at it) though.

There’s more prospects in that 2020 draft than just Tua and Fromm. Eason and Ehlinger should be ones to watch next year as well. I only see one, maybe two (if he declares in this years draft) worth picking up in the 1st round.

 

[ckparrothead]

I don't see anything about Ehlinger versus some of the guys slated to be available in this class that makes me all gooey. He's pretty good. We'll see.

I agree that there's more to the 2020 class than just Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm. There's also Jordan Love. I keep hearing that Justin Herbert is leaning toward staying at Oregon, so he could be in there. We will see what happens with Dwayne Haskins. It's strange that he appealed to his RB MIke Weber to try and stay one more year. Those would be the guys at the top of the 2020 class.

Steven Montez is still floating around out there. Some of the shine has come off him but you never know when a guy is going evolve and step up. We will see on Jacob Eason. A lot's being made of him, but it's not based on a whole lot. One very Brock Osweiler-looking freshman season does not convince me he's an elite NFL quarterback prospect.

Bottom line for me though is I don't know that I like taking the macro view of a class for this position. I don't care if the 2018 class looked good on a macro level, if the guy you got was Josh Rosen and Josh Rosen turns out to be trash, then you got trash. Many will say the same about Josh Allen.

And if you passed up the chance to go up and get a Kyler Murray because of this macro view of the classes, opting out of 2019 and putting all your eggs into 2020, and in 2020 you get Justin Herbert, who ends up trash while Kyler Murray is making plays and winning games, then guess what? You lose!

If Kyler Murray is there for the taking you see if you can go up and get him. If the teams at the top FREEZE YOU OUT of him, like they did Baker Mayfield this year, then you go ahead and grab a guy like Easton Stick in the 2nd round (if that looks like his eventual landing spot), or maybe even Drew Lock. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

EDIT: I was probably harsh on Sam Ehlinger initially. I really do like him quite a bit. Was more just trying to make a point about the macro view of the classes, comparing him to a Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, or Justin Herbert, etc.

 

[Geordie]

I don't see anything about Ehlinger versus some of the guys slated to be available in this class that makes me all gooey. He's pretty good. We'll see.

I agree that there's more to the 2020 class than just Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm. There's also Jordan Love. I keep hearing that Justin Herbert is leaning toward staying at Oregon, so he could be in there. We will see what happens with Dwayne Haskins. It's strange that he appealed to his RB MIke Weber to try and stay one more year. Those would be the guys at the top of the 2020 class.

Steven Montez is still floating around out there. Some of the shine has come off him but you never know when a guy is going evolve and step up. We will see on Jacob Eason. A lot's being made of him, but it's not based on a whole lot. One very Brock Osweiler-looking freshman season does not convince me he's an elite NFL quarterback prospect.

Bottom line for me though is I don't know that I like taking the macro view of a class for this position. I don't care if the 2018 class looked good on a macro level, if the guy you got was Josh Rosen and Josh Rosen turns out to be trash, then you got trash. Many will say the same about Josh Allen.

And if you passed up the chance to go up and get a Kyler Murray because of this macro view of the classes, opting out of 2019 and putting all your eggs into 2020, and in 2020 you get Justin Herbert, who ends up trash while Kyler Murray is making plays and winning games, then guess what? You lose!

If Kyler Murray is there for the taking you see if you can go up and get him. If the teams at the top FREEZE YOU OUT of him, like they did Baker Mayfield this year, then you go ahead and grab a guy like Easton Stick in the 2nd round (if that looks like his eventual landing spot), or maybe even Drew Lock. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

I had forgotten about Love, I like him a lot from the very limited stuff I've seen from him. If Herbert and/or Haskins stays in then that will change a lot, especially if Murray sticks with Baseball. In that scenario 2019 is a **** show, Lock being the best prospect with Grier being elevated up to the first round, I wouldn't get aggressive for either of those guys. In that scenario, I'm picking Lock if he falls to us (but near impossible) we'll have missed out on Grier, so I'm trading my 2019 pick for a bunch of stock in 2020.

 

[ckparrothead]

I'm reluctant to pick Drew Lock mostly because I think everyone involved will be so in love with the arm talent that they decide to sit out 2020.

If you get frozen out of a top quality option in 2019, and I do think Easton Stick for me is trending toward a top quality option, I have to be honest, then you need to take a Drew Lock with a pick that makes it crystal clear that he's not someone that keeps you from participating in 2020.

What I would strongly consider is a Teddy Bridgewater/Easton Stick combination.

But that's if I can't get Kyler Murray. I'm all-in, there.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I'm reluctant to pick Drew Lock mostly because I think everyone involved will be so in love with the arm talent that they decide to sit out 2020.

If you get frozen out of a top quality option in 2019, and I do think Easton Stick for me is trending toward a top quality option, I have to be honest, then you need to take a Drew Lock with a pick that makes it crystal clear that he's not someone that keeps you from participating in 2020.

What I would strongly consider is a Teddy Bridgewater/Easton Stick combination.

But that's if I can't get Kyler Murray. I'm all-in, there.

On sports radio here in the Bay Area they were talking about Murray as a second rounder. I assume that is not accurate? I haven't seen a lot of him, but I absolutely love quarterbacks with his athletic ability. Lock is intriguing with his arm talent. I think there are a lot of potential mid-tier quarterbacks in this class. In other words, qb's who wouldn't be an upgrade over Tannehill.

 

[Geordie]

On sports radio here in the Bay Area they were talking about Murray as a second rounder. I assume that is not accurate? I haven't seen a lot of him, but I absolutely love quarterbacks with his athletic ability. Lock is intriguing with his arm talent. I think there are a lot of potential mid-tier quarterbacks in this class. In other words, qb's who wouldn't be an upgrade over Tannehill.

In the QB hungry NFL of today, in a league where the rules clearly make it easier than ever for a shorter guy to play the position. I can't envisage a situation where the Heisman winner, who has outperformed (stats wise) everyone this year and the hotest rookie QB from last year who is also a little on the shorter side and played in the same set up, is passed up by all 32 teams picking in that first round. If he declares, he goes first round without a doubt, probably wishful thinking by A's fans trying to make a case for him to stick with baseball.

 

[ckparrothead]

On sports radio here in the Bay Area they were talking about Murray as a second rounder. I assume that is not accurate? I haven't seen a lot of him, but I absolutely love quarterbacks with his athletic ability. Lock is intriguing with his arm talent. I think there are a lot of potential mid-tier quarterbacks in this class. In other words, qb's who wouldn't be an upgrade over Tannehill.

Correct. That is not accurate. He will go 1st round. Probably in the Top 10.