We need a thread on this stuff.
I got taken to the cleaners last week and i'm pissed!
The spreads are killing me!
Again, the easiest tip is to look at the road team and what it did last week. Try to wager on road teams coming off a loss, and wager on home teams when the road team is coming off a victory.
That in itself is not a gold mine but it basically eliminates the juice, and gets you thinking correctly toward what to look for. Apply other angles that work in conjunction with that one.
It works partially because conventional wisdom is the other way. When a team loses everyone is down on them and assumes they'll flop on the road. More often than not the energy level is the other way...upticked. When a road team is coming off a victory the fan base is assuming an extension of good form, then they can't understand the blasé effort.
That simple angle went 10-4 last week...betting road teams off a defeat and home teams if the road team was fresh off a victory.
This is NFL, by the way. Doesn't work as well in college, although not terrible. And it fares best among the middle of the league, the so-called Crowd teams. They nicely sashay back and forth, seldom living up to overboard expectations and seldom free falling when everyone is down on them. I love Crowd teams, the ones that basically win between 5 and 11 games.
At either end of the spectrum are the 12+ level Cream teams and 4 or lower win Crap teams. My systems have more trouble with those categories. Cream often covers even when supposedly in down mode, and Crap can't cover during positive expectancy. That's why I have many angles that trigger wagers on Cream teams even when situation is poor. I'm much rather wager on a Crap team than against a Cream team. For example, this week I'll have the Jets. I fully understand that's a Crap team and could lose by 31. But the angles tend to find Crap teams just when they are about to blossom into semi-Crowd level. After all, the talent disparity in the NFL is basically nothing. Early in my wagering life I didn't have a Crap category at all. But there was more parity at the bottom of the league in that point, because the passing wasn't as prevalent and therefore the quarterback position not as vital.