Flawed Logic Of Tanking | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Flawed Logic Of Tanking

ckparrothead said:
The tank is already off and you all just don't realize it.

If Adam Gase had stayed on another year, the tank would've been possible.
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Because Adam Gase is known for going 1-15?
Because Adam Gase is a Grier guy, to comply with the request?
 
Thing is, I don't think you make any kind of assessment on your coaches next year based on record. They all understand this a 3-5 year plan to rebuild and try to build a team that competes. If you give them a bad roster, mediocre QB - or both - they're not going to win any football games. Doesn't matter how good they are as coaches or how many rings they bring with 'em.

Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 his first year with the Cowboys. Belichick went 5-11 his first year in New England. Pete Carroll started off with two consecutive losing seasons in Seattle.

The examples like this are too many to list, but when you're taking over a team that's tearing down their roster - losing is part of the plan. The extent of the roster teardown determines the extent of the losing you're going to experience. There are no shortcuts to building a successful football team. But turnarounds can happen quickly in the NFL if you do it right. I mean true turnarounds. Not just a better record.

You just have to determine what your particular team's "bottom" is and get there fast so you can rebuild correctly. Not every situation is the same. Not every "bottom" is the same, and not every losing season is the same.

Just because you win more games doesn't mean you turned it around. Just because you're losing more games, doesn't mean you're not on the right track and staying the course.

I'll guarantee you Belichick pulled him aside and told him that.
 
ckparrothead said:
Flawed logic is an apt way to talk about this concept.

The fans get to live in a perfect world where logic and reality don't matter. They get to demand that the Dolphins somehow go 2-14 while also demanding that they 1) hire great coaches, 2) keep and acquire great players, and 3) don't throw games on purpose.

It's like they want to just wave a magic want at ONE position, the QB position, and that will magically present you with a 2-14 record, giving you the #1 overall pick, and Tua Tagovailoa. All you've got to do is start Luke Falk or Jake Rudock, amirite? I mean, let's forget that Brock Osweiler won 2 out of 5 games with this roster last year, with (we believe, hence they were fired) even worse coaching.

Fact of the matter is the Dolphins already screwed up any legit shot they had of engaging this weird witting/unwitting tank job when they FIRED Adam Gase. And then they made it worse when they hired the play caller behind the best defensive performance in Super Bowl history and surrounded him with a bunch of other coaches with championship pedigrees. And they continue to screw it up by showing a commitment to keeping excellent players like Laremy Tunsil and Xavien Howard, attempting to acquire more good players like Trey Flowers, and intending to go on drafting good players like Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The tank is already off and you all just don't realize it.

If Adam Gase had stayed on another year, the tank would've been possible. Then the team would've been in that terrible situation where frustrations are at their peak, there's finger-pointing behind the scenes, a locker room about to go bye-bye, etc. Think back to 2004 when Dave Wannstedt started off 1-8, or 2011 when Tony Sparano started off 0-7, or 2015 when Joe Philbin started off 1-3. That's the sort of stage in the story arc you need to be at if you want to tank for real.

Otherwise you're just hoping you accidentally hired the next Cam Cameron. And I don't think anyone thinks pleasantly on that possibility, considering Brian Flores was just given a 5 year fully guaranteed deal. Oh and I bet if there were any tankers in that 2007 off season they'd have been MIGHTY pissed off at signing Trent Green, who would've been deemed, "just good enough to be 7-9 to 9-7".

Here's reality. Yes you need a QB. No you don't have to tank to do it.

Let's not pretend the Dolphins haven't had valid chances at STUD quarterbacks over the years.

#1. They were picking #2 overall in 2005 and decided it wasn't the right time in the rebuilding process to take a QB, thus they passed on the QB Aaron Rodgers everyone seemed to assume was going Top 5 and were completely unprepared to be available when they picked.

#2. They also had a chance to grab Drew Brees one year later.

#3. They could've drafted Matt Ryan in 2008, but they also decided THAT was not the point in the rebuild when they want to use high resources on a QB.

#4. They could've drafted Russell Wilson in 2012.

#5. I don't know if there are any Derek Carr fans out there but not only was he available in 2014, the head coach who had just taken Tannehill in 2012 wanted him in that draft.

#6. They could've drafted Jimmy Garoppolo that year 2014, if you think he's a good QB.

#7. They could've traded up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017.

#8. They could've traded up for DeShaun Watson in 2017.

#9. For as many people that still love Josh Rosen, he was ABSOLUTELY within reach in 2018.

#10. So was Lamar Jackson in 2018, for those people who are fans of his.

Miami has had their chances at quarterbacks and they've passed on them. They've blown it when they were bad enough to be picking in the top two, and they've blown it when they've been picking in the middle of the round.

The Kansas City Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes off a 12-4 record. The Houston Texans got DeShaun Watson fresh off a 9-7 playoff run. The Green Bay Packers got Aaron Rodgers fresh off a 10-6 season. The Seattle Seahawks got Russell Wilson, the Philadelphia Eagles got Carson Wentz, and the Pittsburgh Steelers got Ben Roethlisberger, all of them fresh off that dreaded 7-9 or 6-10 record everyone seems to be so fearful about.

Hell the Miami Dolphins got Dan Marino fresh off a Super Bowl appearance.

This idea that doing anything (especially at the QB position) that "risks" making you "too good" is just doing the same thing over and over again is a total farse. Doing the same thing over and over again would be not acquiring a quarterback even when you had a chance at a good one, and Miami has had those chances.

It's not about managing to win the 1-15 or 2-14 lottery and getting that #1 pick. Great if it happens, although it means you've got a sh-t coach and you'd better toss him immediately. But as Dave Hyde has said, if you're not good enough to get a good QB without that Tank season, then you're not good enough to surround and coach him with championship caliber players and coaches anyway.
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Don't ignore the flip side. Those 'elite' QBs taken in the top 3 picks from 2006-2015 . . .
Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Luck, RGIII, Bortles, Winston, Mariotta.
 
I don't think you needed to keep Adam Gase to tank. All you needed was for him not to agree with the direction you were heading and he was out.

Nobody knows to what extent Flores can be a head coach yet. He's not going to be formulating the game plan every week anymore. That's what his assistant coaches and coordinators will be doing. The things on his plate now are going to be much larger for the first time.

The idea that Flores and company just roll all their rings out every Sunday and automatically win games with the Miami Dolphins of all teams is hardly predictable in my opinion.
 
People are talking about tanking to get Tua Tagovailoa. You need to go 2-14 at most to get him. Even if you do, you've got more than a 50% chance that some other team went 1-15 or that another 2-14 team beat you on tiebreaks.

Over the last two decades there have been 25 teams to go 2-14 and every single one of them ended up firing their coaches. The majority of them were fired that year, either mid-season or post-season. The ones who were not, you generally wish they had been because they go on to a 4-12 record and get fired anyway.

There's only one coach who lasted a bit longer after going 2-14 and that's Jim Schwartz. He took over an 0-16 team, so his 2-14 was actually a 2-win improvement. He recovered a bit, a few seasons later had a winning record. And then eventually he was fired because he couldn't win.

This Jimmy Johnson example is really the only one over the last 30 years.

This is not about a guy going 5-11 as Bill Belichick did. And this is not about a coach with Super Bowl rings being able to fart out a 9-7 record.

This is very specifically about TANKING, as people have proposed to, for Tua Tagovailoa.

If Brian Flores earns the #1 overall pick he will probably be fired. Maybe not right away, but eventually.
 
I say not to tank and I say Long Term Rebuild

There has been lots of fans saying tank for Tua or the best QB in the draft in 2020. Tanking would mean all the staff, coaches and players be on board along with the owner. I have a hard time believing this can even happen on any team.

What I do believe is happening is a Long Term Rebuild. What this means in my humble opinion is:

A pass on a any record while they rebuild. The record isn't going to matter SO the staff and coaches will have time to build this thing from the ground up, inside out. This also means NO PRESSURE on trying to sign the high priced free agents for a temp fix and a run to just try and make the playoffs. This has been the Fins recipe for mediocrity year in and year out. It is about time they try to fix this and so far it seems they are well on their way.

We already know there is a pass on 2019 so 0 and 16 would not matter and would probably be welcome to get the number #1 pick in the 2020 draft. This is part of why we're NOT seeing a big run at free agents this year. To me it is expected and I for one am happy to see it. They are sticking to what they have been preaching. The Devante Parker restructure deal is a bit confusing though. Unless my wishful thinking side is correct in that they did this deal to make DVP more trade-able.

With all the nothing happening in FA we are also seeing the CAP getting fixed. I am anxious to see who else we trade/cut in the next few days. We know THill and Quinn are more than likely gone. What I am hoping for is we at least get a trade out of one of those guys to add draft picks. We need em. We are currently sitting at 21M free space on the CAP and could get to 66M with 4 cuts/trades. It will be interesting to say the least.

What I would love to see in the 2019 draft is a whole lot of focus on the defense front 7 and the Oline. I mean I would not mind if that was all they drafted. While I don't think that will be the case I do believe it will be the focus.

What I think the fans will get this year as far as record and team is much better play. A lot less of the stupid mistakes that just make us break remotes, TV's or pull our hair out. No more 1st and 20 or on D 1st and 5, less fumbles and less sacks on our QB. I want to seem better TEAM play, communication and camaraderie. I really am not expecting much as far as record and am just hoping to see the above. I do see the Dolphins playing better but winning less this year. I doubt we pick number 1 but am thinking around 10 in 2020 Draft. This will be plenty close enough to sell out and get the QB of the future for the Miami Dolphins. Tua, Fromm or Herbert.

This is just my humble opinion.
 
ckparrothead said:
People are talking about tanking to get Tua Tagovailoa. You need to go 2-14 at most to get him. Even if you do, you've got more than a 50% chance that some other team went 1-15 or that another 2-14 team beat you on tiebreaks.

Over the last two decades there have been 25 teams to go 2-14 and every single one of them ended up firing their coaches. The majority of them were fired that year, either mid-season or post-season. The ones who were not, you generally wish they had been because they go on to a 4-12 record and get fired anyway.

There's only one coach who lasted a bit longer after going 2-14 and that's Jim Schwartz. He took over an 0-16 team, so his 2-14 was actually a 2-win improvement. He recovered a bit, a few seasons later had a winning record. And then eventually he was fired because he couldn't win.

This Jimmy Johnson example is really the only one over the last 30 years.

This is not about a guy going 5-11 as Bill Belichick did. And this is not about a coach with Super Bowl rings being able to fart out a 9-7 record.

This is very specifically about TANKING, as people have proposed to, for Tua Tagovailoa.

If Brian Flores earns the #1 overall pick he will probably be fired. Maybe not right away, but eventually.
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He maybe fired but celebrated by many around here. He's gonna be going in with a bottom third defense and who knows what at QB. Its quite possible for any coach to "tank" with our roster. Much less a first timer.
 
ckparrothead said:
Flawed logic is an apt way to talk about this concept.

The fans get to live in a perfect world where logic and reality don't matter. They get to demand that the Dolphins somehow go 2-14 while also demanding that they 1) hire great coaches, 2) keep and acquire great players, and 3) don't throw games on purpose.

It's like they want to just wave a magic want at ONE position, the QB position, and that will magically present you with a 2-14 record, giving you the #1 overall pick, and Tua Tagovailoa. All you've got to do is start Luke Falk or Jake Rudock, amirite? I mean, let's forget that Brock Osweiler won 2 out of 5 games with this roster last year, with (we believe, hence they were fired) even worse coaching.

Fact of the matter is the Dolphins already screwed up any legit shot they had of engaging this weird witting/unwitting tank job when they FIRED Adam Gase. And then they made it worse when they hired the play caller behind the best defensive performance in Super Bowl history and surrounded him with a bunch of other coaches with championship pedigrees. And they continue to screw it up by showing a commitment to keeping excellent players like Laremy Tunsil and Xavien Howard, attempting to acquire more good players like Trey Flowers, and intending to go on drafting good players like Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The tank is already off and you all just don't realize it.

If Adam Gase had stayed on another year, the tank would've been possible. Then the team would've been in that terrible situation where frustrations are at their peak, there's finger-pointing behind the scenes, a locker room about to go bye-bye, etc. Think back to 2004 when Dave Wannstedt started off 1-8, or 2011 when Tony Sparano started off 0-7, or 2015 when Joe Philbin started off 1-3. That's the sort of stage in the story arc you need to be at if you want to tank for real.

Otherwise you're just hoping you accidentally hired the next Cam Cameron. And I don't think anyone thinks pleasantly on that possibility, considering Brian Flores was just given a 5 year fully guaranteed deal. Oh and I bet if there were any tankers in that 2007 off season they'd have been MIGHTY pissed off at signing Trent Green, who would've been deemed, "just good enough to be 7-9 to 9-7".

Here's reality. Yes you need a QB. No you don't have to tank to do it.

Let's not pretend the Dolphins haven't had valid chances at STUD quarterbacks over the years.

#1. They were picking #2 overall in 2005 and decided it wasn't the right time in the rebuilding process to take a QB, thus they passed on the QB Aaron Rodgers everyone seemed to assume was going Top 5 and were completely unprepared to be available when they picked.

#2. They also had a chance to grab Drew Brees one year later.

#3. They could've drafted Matt Ryan in 2008, but they also decided THAT was not the point in the rebuild when they want to use high resources on a QB.

#4. They could've drafted Russell Wilson in 2012.

#5. I don't know if there are any Derek Carr fans out there but not only was he available in 2014, the head coach who had just taken Tannehill in 2012 wanted him in that draft.

#6. They could've drafted Jimmy Garoppolo that year 2014, if you think he's a good QB.

#7. They could've traded up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017.

#8. They could've traded up for DeShaun Watson in 2017.

#9. For as many people that still love Josh Rosen, he was ABSOLUTELY within reach in 2018.

#10. So was Lamar Jackson in 2018, for those people who are fans of his.

Miami has had their chances at quarterbacks and they've passed on them. They've blown it when they were bad enough to be picking in the top two, and they've blown it when they've been picking in the middle of the round.

The Kansas City Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes off a 12-4 record. The Houston Texans got DeShaun Watson fresh off a 9-7 playoff run. The Green Bay Packers got Aaron Rodgers fresh off a 10-6 season. The Seattle Seahawks got Russell Wilson, the Philadelphia Eagles got Carson Wentz, and the Pittsburgh Steelers got Ben Roethlisberger, all of them fresh off that dreaded 7-9 or 6-10 record everyone seems to be so fearful about.

Hell the Miami Dolphins got Dan Marino fresh off a Super Bowl appearance.

This idea that doing anything (especially at the QB position) that "risks" making you "too good" is just doing the same thing over and over again is a total farse. Doing the same thing over and over again would be not acquiring a quarterback even when you had a chance at a good one, and Miami has had those chances.

It's not about managing to win the 1-15 or 2-14 lottery and getting that #1 pick. Great if it happens, although it means you've got a sh-t coach and you'd better toss him immediately. But as Dave Hyde has said, if you're not good enough to get a good QB without that Tank season, then you're not good enough to surround and coach him with championship caliber players and coaches anyway.
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Stop it now. You are making too much sense.
 
Rowdy1972 said:
He maybe fired but celebrated by many around here. He's gonna be going in with a bottom third defense and who knows what at QB. Its quite possible for any coach to "tank" with our roster. Much less a first timer.
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Exactly. If he's fired after getting the #1 pick and Miami lands a franchise quarterback - they might as well build a statue of him outside the stadium.

As for tanking for the #1 pick or a specific player, I don't know how good they are at that. But I think they'll definitely want to be in on the QB sweepstakes next year and let the chips fall where they may. The #1 overall pick is achievable with this team. So is 6 wins.

Anything else is probably not realistic.
 
DPhinz_DPhinz said:
Flores has 5 years...

Define "Long Term", with this 5 year period.
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IMO I would say at least 2 years from ownership perspective but I honestly don't think it will take that long. To me if they can get the LOS on both sides of the ball fixed the fins have enough skill players to make a run next year. That is why I say sell out and grab the future franchise QB in 2020.
 
where not tanking. we will win at leased 6 games this yr. we have too much play makers on offense. plus our def will be better this yr.
 
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