Flawed Logic Of Tanking

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by illscriptures, Mar 12, 2019.

  1. Phindog

    Phindog A True Fan

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    When you look in the dictionary under the word "NFL rebuild" there will be a picture of the 2019 / 2020 Miami Dolphins

    Ross is fine with the fans that think we're tanking if it makes them feel better even though it wasn't what he meant.

    This is Ross's 10th season owning the team and it's his last rebuild he wants to go through.

    If one rebuilds a team properly like Ross is allowing currently, it will last for a decade or more and it becomes a resellable product.
     
  2. Ferretsquig

    Ferretsquig Perennial All-Pro

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    I don't see how anyone could oppose the logic of "tanking", or whatever term you'd like to use. In this league you win by either having an elite QB or by building a team around an average one on a rookie contract. The best way to get either is by picking near the top of the draft.

    As flawed as the Browns' process and as inept a coach as Jackson was they're now sitting pretty with what appears to be a franchise QB in the making and oodles of cap space to throw at established vets. I do believe there is something to the whole culture argument but in the NFL that is built more through a coaching staff and organization than players. These days its pretty standard to have half your roster gone every year and the average time a player stays on a single team is less than a couple seasons. Is anyone still complaining about the culture in Cleveland now that they're throwing cash around? Add in Miami's built in geographic advantages and its pretty easy to forget the past.

    Even if Tua turns out to be more like Winston or Goff than Luck or Mayfield he or whoever emerges as the premier passer coming out of college this year should give a team a chance to build a contender.
     
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  3. 39wildman

    39wildman A True Fan

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    Because that who we talking about Tua. Bama is going be in final w Tua or not. Like I said when he get too NFL.we all will find out. If he is over hype.
     
  4. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

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    They passed on Wentz, and Mahomes, and Watson. They wasted two years. They ended up with #1 pick not because they wanted to but because they were run by idiots. In what world is that good?
    Instead they got Corey Coleman, Emanuel Ogbah, Jabril Peppers, Myles Garret, David Njoku.
    Completely irrelevant players. They kept picking top 2 in the draft. And they were 7-8-1 last year and still had to spend in free agency.

    In the meantime, the Philly, the Rams, the Chiefs, the Texans, the Bears, moved up for a QB to capitalize on the BRowns' idiocy, and they kept rolling,
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2019
  5. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Please football gods, grace us Tua or Trevor Finheaven VIP

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    You can replace Tua with any college qb.

    You don't look at team success as a judge of a prospects ability..

    Tua on the field is an elite talent that can do it all..That's what Miami needs.
     
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  6. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Please football gods, grace us Tua or Trevor Finheaven VIP

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    All this is irrelevant. It's doesn't matter who you pass on when you finally land on a special QB.
     
  7. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

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    How does it not matter that we are 20 years in waiting?!? How does it not matter that this team has fkd around for 20 years?

    You want to talk about culture change?!? Start there, start not fking around! Don't wait, Get the QB! Get the DC with experience and track record!
    It matters. It's the only thing that matters!
     
  8. SkapePhin

    SkapePhin Rump Shaker Finheaven VIP Donator

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    "rebuilding" and "tanking" are the same thing... Even if they aren't actively trying to lose, the way this roster is constructed right now its a guarantee to have a Top 5 pick next year...
     
  9. Dolphinitis

    Dolphinitis Well-Known Member

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    this is true alabama will be in the finals with or without tua.
    lets see how good he is with a mediocre nfl team.
     
  10. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    I love your passion and analysis @illscriptures and you're a great poster I always enjoy reading.

    Just a bit of perspective, if we widen our gaze we may not have the same outlook. I grew up knowing the Dolphins as nothing but winners … as THE Winningest Percentage Sports Team in US Sports History. It simply didn't get more winning than that. I grew up knowing that the only undefeated season ever was done by the Dolphins. The winningest coach ever, Don Shula, was with the Dolphins. And IMHO, the greatest QB ever was a career Miami Dolphin. So, while you may have endured nothing but the dark years of despair and mediocrity--and I have much sympathy and respect for your loyalty--my experiences make me crave returning to glory.

    See, we're on a treadmill of mediocrity. Always good enough to not truly suck (most of the time), but never good enough to really challenge for a Super Bowl. Never good enough to even win the AFC East on anything other than a fluke of circumstances. Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. My experiences tell me we need to do something drastic to break this vicious cycle. Like Einstein would suggest, this constant patchwork approach has conclusively proven to not work for us. We need to try something different, and there have been examples of successful tanking, many of them.

    Again, widening our scope outside of football to Basketball, the reason the Orlando Magic were ever any good, was because they were bad enough to get top draft picks Shaq and Penny Hardaway. The players may not have stayed, but they did get them and they most definitely were successful. If they had been able to keep them in Orlando, they might had a lot more success. There are many other examples in the NBA as well, where teams live and die by where they're drafting. In the NFL, the Dolphins suckitude pre-Shula enabled them to build a roster of very talented players who formed the backbone of our 1972 undefeated team. Jimmy Johnson was the prototype tank-rebuild, and he pulled it off flawlessly. Had he remained coach of the Cowboys a bit longer they might have won a couple more Super Bowls. As for the Browns … yes, they've failed many times at it, but failed less than we have since Don Shula retired. We've been trying to patchwork this shiz for two decades now … maybe its time for a different approach?

    Ultimately, I have always been convinced that it is finding a great coach that fixes us and breaks the vicious cycle of mediocrity. Tanking doesn't really effect a great coach either way. We've seen Jimmy Johnson and Don Shula benefit from tanking, and we've seen Don Shula go years on end proving that he can do it without tanking. But coaches like him are exceedingly rare. Until we find one of those guys, we need to try to win now, and patchwork attempts to leverage our mediocre talent doesn't work for us. Investing in free agency doesn't work for us. Let's try stockpiling the roster with better talent, nuke the locker room and start fresh, and give Coach Flores the best possible canvas on which to paint. Ultimately, either Flores is a good coach or not, but at least maximizing his roster gives him a big head-start in building a good team.

    It is rare that an owner will agree to tanking … they're content to fire the GM and HC and just find someone else. It's painful and kills ticket sales and media coverage when you tank. It's even rarer that a GM will agree to tanking, they fear the owner will change his mind and fire them for not bringing in enough talent, or recommending the coach, or creating disharmony, or not being in control of the situation, or just trying to cover up their ineptitude for a year or so. It's extremely rare that a HC will agree to tanking, since they know they're the necks on the chopping block when the losses start to pile up. If the plan changes, the owner will still be there, and quite possibly the GM too, but that Head Coach and his coaching staff are going to be fired, and probably not ever be offered another Head Coaching job again. So even if the HC agrees, there's always an incentive to break from the plan and try to start winning. It inevitably leads to the coach getting fired, but at least they have a slim chance of becoming a Head Coach again later in their career. So _IF_ you can get all three to align with the program, and _IF_ you can keep that united front to follow through with the tanking and allow that HC to rebuild, you stand a chance to do what Jimmy Johnson did with the Cowboys, and what the Colts did when they drafted Luck--completely reset the roster with top talent at key positions.

    Let's be honest, there are a LOT more attempts at patchwork jobs in the NFL than there are attempts at tanking. The reason the success of tanking seems so low is because you're not looking at the rate of success, just the isolated times it succeeded. The rate of success for tanking is significantly higher than the rate of success for patching. Hell, we've tried to patch for 20+ years now … with 0 successes rebuilding the team and only a couple of fluke seasons to break the misery.

    If 3 years from now we are still mediocre with no signs of improvement, we will declare this a failure. But honestly, if those were the conditions 3 years after a patchjob, we would make the same assessment. What we need to find is a great Head Coach. Tanking or not tanking is not going to change that. But, it may help this particular coach get the most out of his chances to develop a contending team during these 3 years.
     
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  11. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Trevor Lawrence is the next Andrew Luck type prospect, and if we don't get our QB in 2020, there will be a lot of competition as probably around 6 or so teams in 2020 try to tank for Trevor Lawrence. We were 0-7 after the first 7 games and had Andrew Luck lined up … but Matt Moore went on a win streak and we lost it all, Soprano got fired anyway, the interim coach Bowles lost his job anyway too. We simply screwed up Sucking for Luck. I'm not confident we can win a multi-team tankfest for one specific QB. IMHO, 2020 is our window.
     
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  12. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    So what you're saying is that to get that QB, you want to make the talent level at the other positions lower. That what it is when you trade up … you give up talent in the form of draft picks usually. Tanking is using the principle of stacking assets. We've seen our best patchjob attempts lead to nothing but 20+ years of mediocrity. Is there ever a point when we change our strategy? 30 years? 50 years? 100 years? Never?
     
  13. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Very well put Slimm. Thanks for explaining it this way.
     
  14. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    I agree. If Gase had been complicit with purging the roster this year to get a new QB in 2020, I think he would still be our coach. The fact that he wanted to win games meant there was a philosophical difference and Gase was let go, but probably on good terms.

    Not sure whether Belichick explained how to rebuild a roster to Flores, as most of what I've learned about Belichick is that he plays it pretty close to the vest and doesn't share as much with his assistant coaches as most head coaches do. Regardless, I agree that Flores understands it, believe that Grier and Flores thoroughly discussed it, and both are on the same page and that includes giving Flores 3 full years post-tanking to turn this team into a true contender.

    Now, it still remains to be seen whether Coach Flores & Co. can maintain that delicate balance of team belief and growth while losing lots of games and then super-charge that with more talent and flip the learning into winning and eventually contending. It's tough to do, and there are no guarantees … but it is indeed a valid plan.
     
  15. Trade Viper

    Trade Viper Wicked Stop Hunter

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    Hey CK, wow what a relief. 17 fans liked your logic in this post. I thought there for a while that everyone around here had Rabies. Thanks for the work.

    The Ever Grateful VIPER
     

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