DBoston80
Undisputed #1
ATTN: I play in a league wher we handicapp football game's for fun, Im in NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM telling you to put your actuall $$$'son any game's..Gambling can ruin your life if abused PLEASE DO NOT take this the wrong way..Iam simply trying to share some "league" victories and not do anything to abuse this great site..even though you "CAN" bet on the internet I dont condone it.:D
..I have made a pretty "fun time"" the past 5 years on believe it or not handicapping games( for fun ofcourse) So why not let you in on how I break it down and pick'em....(NO ONE WILL GET EVERYTHING RIGHT..IF YOU CAN GET 60% CONSISTENTLY..YOU WILL PROSPER)
Many of you who do this on a regular bases already know what to do..I know Im just laying out my own Playbook for those who may need.help or want to give it a try...
...you need to evaluate the formation's first and foremost and spot the potential mismatch....(you dont like the matchup of Stokely vs. a team with poor depth at cb, right?? Ofcourse not every team can create that matchup..so just look at the little things first...TO ratio is very important, you dont wanna bet on a team who wont cover because of a TO taken to the House!!! (sound familiar?)
...The weather is also important..to an extent(please realize the weather& handicappping have alot in common as far as accuracy..I 'foolishly' fell into the "trap" of betting the under in the Giants vs. the Eagle's game inwich ESPN reported a terriantial downpour for most of the game!!!) Oddly enough It rained all of 10 minutes and No terrintial rainfall occured..and the "great" under bet eas no more thanks to an ariel assualt by Mcnaab&T.O....careful and dont try to outsmart the odd's makers to hard..If it'sto good to be true..it usally IS!
.....wich leads me to another thing NEVER bet on your own team!!! I dont care how big of a lock it looks like..your heart can blind you way too much so it's beter to make this a general rule!!!!
Always wait until the last second to place your bets on teams with "impact" questionable player!!! It's better to risk a line moving a point or so to know what your getitng in to.....you dont wanna bet on a "favre-less Packer team for EX".
Stay away from what I call "trap" games!!!! This has been a good year for the "most frequently talked about teams(PHi,SD,NE,PITT)...." ..contrary to this strange season these teams tend to get lackidasical later in the year and maybe dont put out 100%.....
The home team is automatically awarded 3 points in handicaping...so be aware that Homw/away is already factored in..but should still be considered strongly...EX: INDY on the road..dont be too fooled into thinking Peyton's gonna struggle if he goes to "bad condition" envirement..these thimgs are FACTORED in!!!!
....Also Be careful betting vs Rookie Qb's while this also is "factored" in..sometimes that can hurt you decisin making EX: Manning's Giants are a 11point dog @ home vs philly...yeah well that's been thought of already and while(they did cover easily)....you never know when their talent is gonna shine(Big Ben has made alot of people very sad doubting his talent..anf on the flipside..veryhappy for other's)...advice stay away from Young Qb's thats how alot of people get "hooked''....
As far as backups are concerned..they can actually be evaluated a little easier than other's....Look at how long he has been in the system, his pre season performance does factor in(if he played badly)..theyr'e are some backups I love to see play....(Ferrote,Volek,Henson, Krenzel etc.)...EX: My theory in a game w/Krenzel starting is take the under before you lay it on the line agaibst the Bear's...A oppurtunistic defense and a outstanding ST can NAIL YOU..(a few weeks ago vs the Titans in tenn the bears were overmatched abd the off played terrible..but still lost by only 2 thanks to help from the Def&ST... I myself thought that was a good bet but the under once again saved my butt..
..Never bet against a team with atop notch KR..you dont want your team to scoe and make that "game overing" play..and then..Oh sh-- the guy takes it back for a td..nevermind.....
..I also assumed with the rule change's the over bet would be underestimated when factored in the spread's....Not been a drastic change as I anticaipated..but you want a good bet?? Bet on the Colts over because they dont quit "beefing" up Peyton's TD total until the whistle..but consider how the other offenses passing game is because playing vs,Indy normally thats the difference on the O/U....
....All things considerd here are my potential "fun" bets and why IMO they have a good chance to come through...
The Bears+7.5-34-@Jax.....
..what Im looking at...1 the emergence of Chad Hutchinson scare's me on the under..he played well and made some fine throws last week as chi upset the Vike's....at this point Im inclined to take the bears fetting 7.5 points simply because: The biggest home win was by 6 points this year..I think a beaten up emotionaly drained team that lost to the Steelers in a heartbraker elimanting them(likely) from the playoffs..although Jax Def was good enough to limit Pitt..... .a young team that seems to play at the same level as their opp.vs a team who is playing for pride and in most cases their jobs for me does not seem like a good bet to me....I will leave the o/u alone..but if it goes to 35 and a half..or more..I gotta take the under.
Cinncy+11.50/u44 vs.NE...This is a tricky one IMO...The bengals are one of those formentioned hot teams everyone is starting to pay attention to....Cinncy has put up over 80 points the past 2 weeks vs one exceptional Def..and no matter how you look at it 58 points vs an NFL team is impressive!! To me the question with this game will be Can palmer keep up a good stretch of performance's vs the mastermind of confusing QB's?? I say to an extent...the bengals have alot of confidence but they are not at the level of N.E(or a close game)..Ne's defense is just playing to well right now vs good and bad Offense's....and even though they have not(not) coverd only once all season.....when favored by ten or more this team knows how to finish..and kick while their down....(even though the Bengals have been hot..look for C.Dillon to get plenty of carries vs.Cinncy)..and believe it or not more people will likely bet on Cincy because they will be overwhelmed by their point totals..I like N.E and the under 31-10... (always leave yourself a "better" chance to win..EX: If I were to assume the Bengals will cover..I have to imagine a high scoring game for them to cover 11 points..so the Bengal's and the under would IMO be a bad bet considering the Bengals are VERY unlikely to cover and the under come through as well-It leaves you w/little margin of error..
..My final Analysis....Houston+10.5 o/u 57 vs.Indy....
..make no mistake Dungy and crew are going to fire it down the field no matter what the score is..(This is rough because there is no real good O/u& spread bet combined like in the N.E game) Question is can houston's defense(wich has played terrible) even slightly slow down Manning and crew's attack??? How good is the 3rd and fourth cb's?? Judging by the last time these two teams met...not very good!! And even at home it's still an indoor facility..and peyton's gotta love another one of those...I look for Dungy to listen to critics and run the ball a little more in the 4th quarter when the texan's are trailing.. Manning cools off ( a little) and the Texan's get a late td pass from carr and cover..31-26....(if anything this line will likely rise to 13 or so..so dont be in too much of a hurry to place this one....
Here are some I like and some things I really like!
N.O/Dallas over 46..too bad Defenses and an improved off from dallas makes this IMO the Lock of the week!!!
Balt/Giants Over- I know this is NOT the trendy bet..but thats a good thing!! Ironically the o?u was nearly the same in the SB a few years back and ST played the role in the over covering(remember the KO RET's) Devastating to me personally..while joyful for others as the theme always goes!!! I wont be trapped this time because the over looks pretty good the Ravens will get TO's and they usally take them in for points(how else would they have 7 wins?) Im tempted to take Baltimore & the over but Kyle Boller is just to risky..Ill take the OVER....(remeber IMO it would make little sense to do something like take NY and he over because unless a berrade of to's put them inside thwe Balt 5 they should have a hard time puttin up enough points to cover tje over and the spread..Im thinking a 30-10 game..
..Well I have much more to offer butthis thread is pretty long as it is???? Well i also REALLY like..Bucs and the under...I know they have played like utter 'crap' on the road but the defense is starting to play well(about time) and with the offense getting healthy and playing well...I think SD got lucky to win last week and only put up 20 points vs a worse defense..Bree's will not throw for 225+ yds and Brooks has a chance to atleast slow down gate's.. also with Keading struggling doesnt help vs agood 'D' T.B. win's 27-13
Okay one last thing..As far as Miami goes I mentioned MO on that earlier...It is not very wise to get in the habit of betting on your 'own' team..it may seem smart because while watching them you may see alot of potential that's just bot there...(I got a buddy who bets on CLE every week because"---- is playing well and will stop-----" even when your right...its just a bad habit....you can always apply the "win-win" approach by betting against your team!! While this week it seems like a very good bet vs. the 'fin's' you dont wanna take the demorolizing loss of the Dolphin's losing by 7 and screwing your whole day up!!! It might be a better bet with a low spread for EX.3--that way unless the unlikely happens amd your team loses by 1-2..then its just plain bad luck...even though my "head is saying"Miami will get the ball ran down they're throats, and they have a CB who can REALLY limit our Off..and this game can get ugly!!" I still refuse to bet agaibst my team...
Well for you who took the 'hour' to read this thread-hopefully it will help your thinking and you'll hopefully knoe what to look for...There ARE NO GUARENTEE'S IN THE NFL so dont put all your eggs in one basket...and always be careful of 'TRAP' games you may think will "save" your day..like the one this sun,. night..IMO this is the easiest time of the year to win bet's so Hopefully if you bet w/ me..you suceed..but remember they're are no ''for sure" bets no matter what shoot for 60% and in most cases you'll make (POINTS).
.."Iam not a "know it all" or an expert im simply sharing a system that (for me) has been very kind.....everyone has good weeks and bad weeks...its all about winning in the long run..I might be 100% this week..and 0% next week..that's gaming in the NFL.."
..I have made a pretty "fun time"" the past 5 years on believe it or not handicapping games( for fun ofcourse) So why not let you in on how I break it down and pick'em....(NO ONE WILL GET EVERYTHING RIGHT..IF YOU CAN GET 60% CONSISTENTLY..YOU WILL PROSPER)
Many of you who do this on a regular bases already know what to do..I know Im just laying out my own Playbook for those who may need.help or want to give it a try...
...you need to evaluate the formation's first and foremost and spot the potential mismatch....(you dont like the matchup of Stokely vs. a team with poor depth at cb, right?? Ofcourse not every team can create that matchup..so just look at the little things first...TO ratio is very important, you dont wanna bet on a team who wont cover because of a TO taken to the House!!! (sound familiar?)
...The weather is also important..to an extent(please realize the weather& handicappping have alot in common as far as accuracy..I 'foolishly' fell into the "trap" of betting the under in the Giants vs. the Eagle's game inwich ESPN reported a terriantial downpour for most of the game!!!) Oddly enough It rained all of 10 minutes and No terrintial rainfall occured..and the "great" under bet eas no more thanks to an ariel assualt by Mcnaab&T.O....careful and dont try to outsmart the odd's makers to hard..If it'sto good to be true..it usally IS!
.....wich leads me to another thing NEVER bet on your own team!!! I dont care how big of a lock it looks like..your heart can blind you way too much so it's beter to make this a general rule!!!!
Always wait until the last second to place your bets on teams with "impact" questionable player!!! It's better to risk a line moving a point or so to know what your getitng in to.....you dont wanna bet on a "favre-less Packer team for EX".
Stay away from what I call "trap" games!!!! This has been a good year for the "most frequently talked about teams(PHi,SD,NE,PITT)...." ..contrary to this strange season these teams tend to get lackidasical later in the year and maybe dont put out 100%.....
The home team is automatically awarded 3 points in handicaping...so be aware that Homw/away is already factored in..but should still be considered strongly...EX: INDY on the road..dont be too fooled into thinking Peyton's gonna struggle if he goes to "bad condition" envirement..these thimgs are FACTORED in!!!!
....Also Be careful betting vs Rookie Qb's while this also is "factored" in..sometimes that can hurt you decisin making EX: Manning's Giants are a 11point dog @ home vs philly...yeah well that's been thought of already and while(they did cover easily)....you never know when their talent is gonna shine(Big Ben has made alot of people very sad doubting his talent..anf on the flipside..veryhappy for other's)...advice stay away from Young Qb's thats how alot of people get "hooked''....
As far as backups are concerned..they can actually be evaluated a little easier than other's....Look at how long he has been in the system, his pre season performance does factor in(if he played badly)..theyr'e are some backups I love to see play....(Ferrote,Volek,Henson, Krenzel etc.)...EX: My theory in a game w/Krenzel starting is take the under before you lay it on the line agaibst the Bear's...A oppurtunistic defense and a outstanding ST can NAIL YOU..(a few weeks ago vs the Titans in tenn the bears were overmatched abd the off played terrible..but still lost by only 2 thanks to help from the Def&ST... I myself thought that was a good bet but the under once again saved my butt..
..Never bet against a team with atop notch KR..you dont want your team to scoe and make that "game overing" play..and then..Oh sh-- the guy takes it back for a td..nevermind.....
..I also assumed with the rule change's the over bet would be underestimated when factored in the spread's....Not been a drastic change as I anticaipated..but you want a good bet?? Bet on the Colts over because they dont quit "beefing" up Peyton's TD total until the whistle..but consider how the other offenses passing game is because playing vs,Indy normally thats the difference on the O/U....
....All things considerd here are my potential "fun" bets and why IMO they have a good chance to come through...
The Bears+7.5-34-@Jax.....
..what Im looking at...1 the emergence of Chad Hutchinson scare's me on the under..he played well and made some fine throws last week as chi upset the Vike's....at this point Im inclined to take the bears fetting 7.5 points simply because: The biggest home win was by 6 points this year..I think a beaten up emotionaly drained team that lost to the Steelers in a heartbraker elimanting them(likely) from the playoffs..although Jax Def was good enough to limit Pitt..... .a young team that seems to play at the same level as their opp.vs a team who is playing for pride and in most cases their jobs for me does not seem like a good bet to me....I will leave the o/u alone..but if it goes to 35 and a half..or more..I gotta take the under.
Cinncy+11.50/u44 vs.NE...This is a tricky one IMO...The bengals are one of those formentioned hot teams everyone is starting to pay attention to....Cinncy has put up over 80 points the past 2 weeks vs one exceptional Def..and no matter how you look at it 58 points vs an NFL team is impressive!! To me the question with this game will be Can palmer keep up a good stretch of performance's vs the mastermind of confusing QB's?? I say to an extent...the bengals have alot of confidence but they are not at the level of N.E(or a close game)..Ne's defense is just playing to well right now vs good and bad Offense's....and even though they have not(not) coverd only once all season.....when favored by ten or more this team knows how to finish..and kick while their down....(even though the Bengals have been hot..look for C.Dillon to get plenty of carries vs.Cinncy)..and believe it or not more people will likely bet on Cincy because they will be overwhelmed by their point totals..I like N.E and the under 31-10... (always leave yourself a "better" chance to win..EX: If I were to assume the Bengals will cover..I have to imagine a high scoring game for them to cover 11 points..so the Bengal's and the under would IMO be a bad bet considering the Bengals are VERY unlikely to cover and the under come through as well-It leaves you w/little margin of error..
..My final Analysis....Houston+10.5 o/u 57 vs.Indy....
..make no mistake Dungy and crew are going to fire it down the field no matter what the score is..(This is rough because there is no real good O/u& spread bet combined like in the N.E game) Question is can houston's defense(wich has played terrible) even slightly slow down Manning and crew's attack??? How good is the 3rd and fourth cb's?? Judging by the last time these two teams met...not very good!! And even at home it's still an indoor facility..and peyton's gotta love another one of those...I look for Dungy to listen to critics and run the ball a little more in the 4th quarter when the texan's are trailing.. Manning cools off ( a little) and the Texan's get a late td pass from carr and cover..31-26....(if anything this line will likely rise to 13 or so..so dont be in too much of a hurry to place this one....
Here are some I like and some things I really like!
N.O/Dallas over 46..too bad Defenses and an improved off from dallas makes this IMO the Lock of the week!!!
Balt/Giants Over- I know this is NOT the trendy bet..but thats a good thing!! Ironically the o?u was nearly the same in the SB a few years back and ST played the role in the over covering(remember the KO RET's) Devastating to me personally..while joyful for others as the theme always goes!!! I wont be trapped this time because the over looks pretty good the Ravens will get TO's and they usally take them in for points(how else would they have 7 wins?) Im tempted to take Baltimore & the over but Kyle Boller is just to risky..Ill take the OVER....(remeber IMO it would make little sense to do something like take NY and he over because unless a berrade of to's put them inside thwe Balt 5 they should have a hard time puttin up enough points to cover tje over and the spread..Im thinking a 30-10 game..
..Well I have much more to offer butthis thread is pretty long as it is???? Well i also REALLY like..Bucs and the under...I know they have played like utter 'crap' on the road but the defense is starting to play well(about time) and with the offense getting healthy and playing well...I think SD got lucky to win last week and only put up 20 points vs a worse defense..Bree's will not throw for 225+ yds and Brooks has a chance to atleast slow down gate's.. also with Keading struggling doesnt help vs agood 'D' T.B. win's 27-13
Okay one last thing..As far as Miami goes I mentioned MO on that earlier...It is not very wise to get in the habit of betting on your 'own' team..it may seem smart because while watching them you may see alot of potential that's just bot there...(I got a buddy who bets on CLE every week because"---- is playing well and will stop-----" even when your right...its just a bad habit....you can always apply the "win-win" approach by betting against your team!! While this week it seems like a very good bet vs. the 'fin's' you dont wanna take the demorolizing loss of the Dolphin's losing by 7 and screwing your whole day up!!! It might be a better bet with a low spread for EX.3--that way unless the unlikely happens amd your team loses by 1-2..then its just plain bad luck...even though my "head is saying"Miami will get the ball ran down they're throats, and they have a CB who can REALLY limit our Off..and this game can get ugly!!" I still refuse to bet agaibst my team...
Well for you who took the 'hour' to read this thread-hopefully it will help your thinking and you'll hopefully knoe what to look for...There ARE NO GUARENTEE'S IN THE NFL so dont put all your eggs in one basket...and always be careful of 'TRAP' games you may think will "save" your day..like the one this sun,. night..IMO this is the easiest time of the year to win bet's so Hopefully if you bet w/ me..you suceed..but remember they're are no ''for sure" bets no matter what shoot for 60% and in most cases you'll make (POINTS).
.."Iam not a "know it all" or an expert im simply sharing a system that (for me) has been very kind.....everyone has good weeks and bad weeks...its all about winning in the long run..I might be 100% this week..and 0% next week..that's gaming in the NFL.."