For any of those still confused about how we get into the playoffs...
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AllFinsAllDay
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Duck and cover! somebody wants to win.
Vegas has KC as a 10 point dog. They must be convinced Reid rests his starters..
Edit: For anyone who likes percentages. This was taken from a reddit thread.
If we assume each of those results has a 50/50 chance of winning, then chance of getting the 6th seed:
Bal 43.8%
Mia 37.5%
SD 12.5%
Pit 6.3%
But, each of those games is not a 50/50 proposition.
We can use the point spreads to approximate the probability of each outcome: http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/[1]
Baltimore is a 5.5-point underdog, so only has a 32.6% chance of winning. Miami is a 6.5-point favorite, so has a 70.2% chance of winning. Kansas City is a 10-point underdog, so has a 21.1% chance of winning. Pittsburgh is a 7-point favorite, so has a 71.6% chance of winning.
If we take each of those 16 outcomes and multiple the win probability for each, we get these chances of winning the #6 seed:
Miami 65.4%
San Diego 15.8%
Baltimore 15.7%
Pittsburgh 3.0%
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If the Dolphins win their game, then the weighted probabilities are:
Miami 93.1%
Baltimore 6.9%
Edit: For anyone who likes percentages. This was taken from a reddit thread.
If we assume each of those results has a 50/50 chance of winning, then chance of getting the 6th seed:
Bal 43.8%
Mia 37.5%
SD 12.5%
Pit 6.3%
But, each of those games is not a 50/50 proposition.
We can use the point spreads to approximate the probability of each outcome: http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/[1]
Baltimore is a 5.5-point underdog, so only has a 32.6% chance of winning. Miami is a 6.5-point favorite, so has a 70.2% chance of winning. Kansas City is a 10-point underdog, so has a 21.1% chance of winning. Pittsburgh is a 7-point favorite, so has a 71.6% chance of winning.
If we take each of those 16 outcomes and multiple the win probability for each, we get these chances of winning the #6 seed:
Miami 65.4%
San Diego 15.8%
Baltimore 15.7%
Pittsburgh 3.0%
----------
If the Dolphins win their game, then the weighted probabilities are:
Miami 93.1%
Baltimore 6.9%
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/108770/2013-nfl-week-17-playoff-scenarios
The Dolphins have to beat the Jets Sunday and have the Bengals beat the Ravens or we win & Chargers win.
But, if we win and the Chargers lose to the Chiefs Sunday then we will get the last spot because of the head-to-head victory over the Chargers.
If Miami beats the Jets and San Diego loses, Miami would finish 9-7 and San Diego 8-8 so head to head is pointless.
Elle Clouds
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What does San Diego winning have to do with us if we win and the ravens win?
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Better shot than anyone at getting in. Each line is a separate win/loss scenario
Thanks for posting this but I'm pretty sure that people who still don't get it by this point are never going to get it.
We would all be 9-7 and would win via tie breakers because of our conference record. If SD lost we would lose to Bal based on the head to head tie breaker. When SD is involved it goes to conference record.
3 way tie and the tiebreaker would go to us.
we'd have a three-way tie between the three teams, which Miami would win based on conference record. head-to-head doesn't apply unless one team has beaten the other two, which didn't happen this season.
three way tie breaker goes to conference record of which we works own the best out of the three
truedolfan57
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If SD won, and MIA and Balt win, it would be a 3 way tie, and miami would have the 3 way tiebreaker, due to conference record. Head to head doesn't matter in a 3 way tie, unless one of the three beat the other twi teams. which in this case, it didn't happen, as the ravens never played the chargers.