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I've stayed out of this thread for a while now, but I can't do it any longer.
First, let me say that I am a Tannehill believer, and I think we should build around him, not replace him. I am in favor of Tannehill. Hope that is clear.
Let me say this about Baker Mayfield though, he is, IMHO, the best QB prospect in this draft. I also freely admit that he has sizable bust-potential ... but I think all of these guys do honestly.
Mayfield has lots of arm talent. Yes, he has a strong arm. Yes he has a very quick release, probably the quickest in this class. Yes, he is probably the most accurate thrower in this class. He puts the ball where he wants to put it, and that is rarely in a bad spot.
Mayfield visually recognizes situations clearly and very quickly. So he can quickly glance in a direction, obtain a snapshot of what's going on and instantly know whether his receiver is getting open. This means he can scan the field and usually find the best target. In the NFL, windows are short lived and typically guys are not wide open, so recognizing your windows and accurately placing the football there when it is open is almost the whole challenge for a QB.
Mayfield processes information quickly. So that means when he "sees it" he understands what he needs to do and transfers that message to his arm quickly. He doesn't hesitate or have a slow and clumsy progression. Mayfield can do the things that coaches want their QB's to do with their eyes and brain.
Mayfield has excellent pocket presence, reminiscent of Russell Wilson. One of my favorite things about Russell Wilson is that he scrambles to throw the ball, not to gain minor stat-yardage. He feels the presence of the defenders, waits until the opportune moment, then sprints out buying himself--and his OL--2 or 3 more seconds to extend the play. It allows his receivers more time to get open. It opens up the field vertically. Mayfield does those things too. I don't think of Wilson as a "running QB" but rather as a scrambling QB, someone who will run if it means a TD, 1st down, or there are simply no other options. But he always protects his body and avoids as many hits as he can. I hope Mayfield becomes a scrambling QB and not a running QB, and Mayfield certainly has the potential to do it, if he is smart about it. If he becomes a running QB, his body cannot take the punishment for a full QB career. But, Mayfield definitely avoids the rush without dropping his eyes. He extends plays. He keeps searching for passing outlets, and he's always ready to pull the trigger on those passes.
Putting it all together, Mayfield's pocket presence extends plays, giving him more time to throw. His good vision, quick processing of information and quick release allow him more time to throw. His strong arm allows him to throw a tad late and still get the ball in the receivers window. In today's NFL, every QB is deadly if he has all day to throw. No QB is good when constantly facing a fierce pass rush. Mayfield's accuracy gives him a chance to be the next Drew Brees or Derek Carr. These abilities that buy him more time to throw (pocket presence, visual recognition speed, mental processing speed, quick release) are what will allow Mayfield to become a good NFL player.
Negatives: Size, abrasive personality, desire to be a runner.
He definitely has bust potential. He's a shade under 6'1, which means he's like 2 or 3 inches taller than Wilson and Brees. But, he's just under that demarcation line that is considered too short to play QB in the NFL. If this guy were 6'5 he would be the 1st pick. But he is not. Teams know he's a leader and hard worker, but if he isn't going to do what the coach tells him, he's going to have problems. I _think_ he is all-in as far as coachability .. but that still remains to be seen. Also, if he becomes a running QB, he is not going to last long in this league. He should take a queue from Russell Wilson and become a scrambling QB, and avoid every avoidable hit he can.
In the end, if you have the most accurate QB, who is a good leader, hard worker, has a strong arm, quick release, excellent vision, excellent mental processing, good pocket presence, escapability, some mobility, and your only fear is that he is less than half an inch below 6'1, you should take him. That package is comparable to Russell Wilson but taller. On the other hand, if you think he is not very coachable ... stay away.
I can see both opinions among NFL GM's. Personally, if I wanted a QB from this class, Mayfield would be the guy I'd go after. Allen has more upside, Darnold is safer, but Mayfield checks all the boxes for me.
First, let me say that I am a Tannehill believer, and I think we should build around him, not replace him. I am in favor of Tannehill. Hope that is clear.
Let me say this about Baker Mayfield though, he is, IMHO, the best QB prospect in this draft. I also freely admit that he has sizable bust-potential ... but I think all of these guys do honestly.
Mayfield has lots of arm talent. Yes, he has a strong arm. Yes he has a very quick release, probably the quickest in this class. Yes, he is probably the most accurate thrower in this class. He puts the ball where he wants to put it, and that is rarely in a bad spot.
Mayfield visually recognizes situations clearly and very quickly. So he can quickly glance in a direction, obtain a snapshot of what's going on and instantly know whether his receiver is getting open. This means he can scan the field and usually find the best target. In the NFL, windows are short lived and typically guys are not wide open, so recognizing your windows and accurately placing the football there when it is open is almost the whole challenge for a QB.
Mayfield processes information quickly. So that means when he "sees it" he understands what he needs to do and transfers that message to his arm quickly. He doesn't hesitate or have a slow and clumsy progression. Mayfield can do the things that coaches want their QB's to do with their eyes and brain.
Mayfield has excellent pocket presence, reminiscent of Russell Wilson. One of my favorite things about Russell Wilson is that he scrambles to throw the ball, not to gain minor stat-yardage. He feels the presence of the defenders, waits until the opportune moment, then sprints out buying himself--and his OL--2 or 3 more seconds to extend the play. It allows his receivers more time to get open. It opens up the field vertically. Mayfield does those things too. I don't think of Wilson as a "running QB" but rather as a scrambling QB, someone who will run if it means a TD, 1st down, or there are simply no other options. But he always protects his body and avoids as many hits as he can. I hope Mayfield becomes a scrambling QB and not a running QB, and Mayfield certainly has the potential to do it, if he is smart about it. If he becomes a running QB, his body cannot take the punishment for a full QB career. But, Mayfield definitely avoids the rush without dropping his eyes. He extends plays. He keeps searching for passing outlets, and he's always ready to pull the trigger on those passes.
Putting it all together, Mayfield's pocket presence extends plays, giving him more time to throw. His good vision, quick processing of information and quick release allow him more time to throw. His strong arm allows him to throw a tad late and still get the ball in the receivers window. In today's NFL, every QB is deadly if he has all day to throw. No QB is good when constantly facing a fierce pass rush. Mayfield's accuracy gives him a chance to be the next Drew Brees or Derek Carr. These abilities that buy him more time to throw (pocket presence, visual recognition speed, mental processing speed, quick release) are what will allow Mayfield to become a good NFL player.
Negatives: Size, abrasive personality, desire to be a runner.
He definitely has bust potential. He's a shade under 6'1, which means he's like 2 or 3 inches taller than Wilson and Brees. But, he's just under that demarcation line that is considered too short to play QB in the NFL. If this guy were 6'5 he would be the 1st pick. But he is not. Teams know he's a leader and hard worker, but if he isn't going to do what the coach tells him, he's going to have problems. I _think_ he is all-in as far as coachability .. but that still remains to be seen. Also, if he becomes a running QB, he is not going to last long in this league. He should take a queue from Russell Wilson and become a scrambling QB, and avoid every avoidable hit he can.
In the end, if you have the most accurate QB, who is a good leader, hard worker, has a strong arm, quick release, excellent vision, excellent mental processing, good pocket presence, escapability, some mobility, and your only fear is that he is less than half an inch below 6'1, you should take him. That package is comparable to Russell Wilson but taller. On the other hand, if you think he is not very coachable ... stay away.
I can see both opinions among NFL GM's. Personally, if I wanted a QB from this class, Mayfield would be the guy I'd go after. Allen has more upside, Darnold is safer, but Mayfield checks all the boxes for me.
