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One of the most in depth tweets full of analysis on why he will/wont succeed and his pros and cons…he has him as a 4th rounder which I think is wild:
As a former NFL Scout, I have evaluated 13 games that Fernando Mendoza played in during the 2025 season and have him on my board as a 4th round value in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Everything about him and his process is stiff and systematic going into a league that requires split second situational recognition, flexibility and adaptability.
Think the polar opposite of Caleb Williams when you think of Mendoza.
Williams loved getting out of structure at USC. Mendoza loves rigid systematic structure.
15 problems that do not translate well to the NFL for Mendoza:
1. Works out of shotgun a majority of the time and is not accustomed to working directly under center.
2. Clapping cadence —going to a verbal cadence in the NFL is going to be a real adjustment for him.
3. Has played in a heavy RPO (run pass option) offensive system at Indiana that has “worked” because they have a strong run game (that was ranked No. 11 in the country that averaged 214.8 yards per game per Team Rankings). The “success” of his passing game is fueled by the run game.
4. Can’t read defenses that well post-snap. A lot of his throwing locations in 2025 were pre-determined before the ball was snapped. From there he’s generally a one-to-two read quarterback (11x in 13 games he got to his third or fourth read).
5. Questionable how well he sees the field.
6. Works best from his spot. Meaning he prefers working from where he catches the snap or within the walls of the pocket. He really struggles when the defense moves him off his spot and/or outside the pocket. At one point during the season (after his first 5 games ESPN reported that he had only completed 16.7% of his passes on the move). He looked like a fish out of water outside the pocket.
7. Seems most comfortable throwing outside (less comfortable throwing inside).
8. Inexperienced looking throwing passes at the intermediate route level (10-19 yards). “Best” short (0-9 yards) and deep (+20 air yards) 47.7% on the deep attempts that I charted (21/44).
9. Lifts his back right foot when throwing which causes some degree of inaccuracy in terms of placement (passes can sail high or be overthrown).
10. Telegraphs when and where he’s throwing. Takes extra steps to gather himself in the direction he’s throwing when working from the pocket. His “accuracy” is very dependent on his entire throwing motion. He hard locks for a noticeable extra moment and has to calibrate his entire throwing motion with his target. He pats the ball before he throws, which is another “tell,” that he’s getting ready to release. His eyes are very easy to read. Where’s he’s looking—that’s where he’s throwing. He showed ZERO ability to move or manipulate defenders with his eyes in 13 games this season. His passes look a tad late because of his process. He throws with below average to average anticipation (2.68 seconds time to throw in 13 games per PFF).
11. He’s not good vs. pressure. If his first or second read isn’t there fairly quickly, he tries to bail out by either running or throwing the ball away. He does this to try to disguise the fact that he can’t feel front or backside pressure. In 13 games, PFF had him at 76.5% when he was kept clean and 51.4% under pressure. ***He’s extremely vulnerable to pressure up the middle.
12. He throws an elementary route tree. He primarily throws quick little passes outside, inside slants or deep passes.
13. Throws mostly fastballs and showed little ability to “take something off his passes.”
14. Defenses looked like they were figuring out his “predictability” and his “tendencies” as this season progressed.
15. Does a poor job protecting his body both as a runner and as a passer. Absorbs a lot of contact running (not big on sliding or running out of bounds), and when he throws on the move, he does this funky “jump pass” throwing motion that opens his body up to absorbing heavy contact.
As a former NFL Scout, I have evaluated 13 games that Fernando Mendoza played in during the 2025 season and have him on my board as a 4th round value in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Everything about him and his process is stiff and systematic going into a league that requires split second situational recognition, flexibility and adaptability.
Think the polar opposite of Caleb Williams when you think of Mendoza.
Williams loved getting out of structure at USC. Mendoza loves rigid systematic structure.
15 problems that do not translate well to the NFL for Mendoza:
1. Works out of shotgun a majority of the time and is not accustomed to working directly under center.
2. Clapping cadence —going to a verbal cadence in the NFL is going to be a real adjustment for him.
3. Has played in a heavy RPO (run pass option) offensive system at Indiana that has “worked” because they have a strong run game (that was ranked No. 11 in the country that averaged 214.8 yards per game per Team Rankings). The “success” of his passing game is fueled by the run game.
4. Can’t read defenses that well post-snap. A lot of his throwing locations in 2025 were pre-determined before the ball was snapped. From there he’s generally a one-to-two read quarterback (11x in 13 games he got to his third or fourth read).
5. Questionable how well he sees the field.
6. Works best from his spot. Meaning he prefers working from where he catches the snap or within the walls of the pocket. He really struggles when the defense moves him off his spot and/or outside the pocket. At one point during the season (after his first 5 games ESPN reported that he had only completed 16.7% of his passes on the move). He looked like a fish out of water outside the pocket.
7. Seems most comfortable throwing outside (less comfortable throwing inside).
8. Inexperienced looking throwing passes at the intermediate route level (10-19 yards). “Best” short (0-9 yards) and deep (+20 air yards) 47.7% on the deep attempts that I charted (21/44).
9. Lifts his back right foot when throwing which causes some degree of inaccuracy in terms of placement (passes can sail high or be overthrown).
10. Telegraphs when and where he’s throwing. Takes extra steps to gather himself in the direction he’s throwing when working from the pocket. His “accuracy” is very dependent on his entire throwing motion. He hard locks for a noticeable extra moment and has to calibrate his entire throwing motion with his target. He pats the ball before he throws, which is another “tell,” that he’s getting ready to release. His eyes are very easy to read. Where’s he’s looking—that’s where he’s throwing. He showed ZERO ability to move or manipulate defenders with his eyes in 13 games this season. His passes look a tad late because of his process. He throws with below average to average anticipation (2.68 seconds time to throw in 13 games per PFF).
11. He’s not good vs. pressure. If his first or second read isn’t there fairly quickly, he tries to bail out by either running or throwing the ball away. He does this to try to disguise the fact that he can’t feel front or backside pressure. In 13 games, PFF had him at 76.5% when he was kept clean and 51.4% under pressure. ***He’s extremely vulnerable to pressure up the middle.
12. He throws an elementary route tree. He primarily throws quick little passes outside, inside slants or deep passes.
13. Throws mostly fastballs and showed little ability to “take something off his passes.”
14. Defenses looked like they were figuring out his “predictability” and his “tendencies” as this season progressed.
15. Does a poor job protecting his body both as a runner and as a passer. Absorbs a lot of contact running (not big on sliding or running out of bounds), and when he throws on the move, he does this funky “jump pass” throwing motion that opens his body up to absorbing heavy contact.
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wonder if he was the Jets scout that told them to draft butt fumble in the first round