Formula on How to Determine if a Team Makes the Playoffs. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Formula on How to Determine if a Team Makes the Playoffs.

Dolph N.Fan

Dolph N.Fan

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Okay, so I was listening to the radio and the host says he has a formula that's pretty accurate for determining if a team will make the playoffs. He used the Cowboys as an example, (he says they will definitely make the postseason) basically he says if you have a "Pro Bowl" QB and if you have a lot of games against teams with non "Pro Bowl" QBs then you'll most likely make the playoffs. The QBs he has listed as "Pro Bowl" QBs are as followed in no particular order:

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Michael Vick
Matt Ryan
Philip Rivers
Matt Shaub
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Tony Romo
Jay Cutler

Note: He doesn't have Freeman on this list yet because he's only played one season and Sanchez isn't on it because "he's close but not quite there until he increases his completion %

Okay so back to his example (Dallas), according to this formula they have a "Pro Bowl" QB and they have only 5 games against "Pro Bowl" QBs: Vick (2), Brady, and E.Manning (2). He said DAL has 9 games (WSH (2) MIA, BUF, ARZ,SEA, DET, STL and SF) where they have a high chance of winning because they have a "better QB than those mentioned opponents. And their other 2 games vs NYJ and TB could go either way as the Jets are good despite Sanchez and Freeman could really be the real deal. His Final prediction: Cowboys finish with at least 9 wins and has as many as 11.

So I thought I try this "formula" with Miami.

According to the formula Miami doesn't have a "Pro Bowl" QB so their chances of winning against teams with "Pro Bowl" QBs are low. Miami has 7 such games: Brady (2), Shaub, Rivers, E.Manning, Romo, and Vick. But Miami has 7 games against teams (BUF (2), WSH, CLE, DEN, KC, and OAK) with non "Pro Bowl" QBs. And then there's the 2 games with NYJ which is a tossup. With teams with non "Pro Bowl" QBs vs other teams with non "Pro Bowl" QBs he said it will come down to who has the better team overall that will win. So by this formula it looks like Miami will have at least 7 wins and as many as 9.

Anyways, so the Dolphins look like they'll be 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 (if they steal some wins) this season. Weird formula but I think it's all crap because he doesn't take into account home field advantage, division games, and rivalries but whatever.
 
So basically he looks at a teams schedule and discovers how many games they have against really good teams, how many against teams that are either decent of bad, and how many against good teams without what he calls a pro bowl QB( which is a total of 2 in the entire league).

Just sheer genius. I dont know how he came up with the concept. Teams with solid QBs are pretty much equivilant to real good teams. Go figure. Who wouldve thought. Someone tell this to Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano.

I mean its almost as if the success of your team depends on who your QB is and how good he is. Amazing. What a concept. Its like if you draft a LT when you need a QB, youre screwed. And if you take Matt Ryan instead of a LT, you win. Interesting.

This should be the football version of moneyball in baseball. Its going to take over the league. The next thing you know, almost every team in the league that needs a good QB will refuse to spend the first pick in the draft on a LT.........oh wait. Nevermind.
 
Phinsanity13 said:
So basically he looks at a teams schedule and discovers how many games they have against really good teams, how many against teams that are either decent of bad, and how many against good teams without what he calls a pro bowl QB( which is a total of 2 in the entire league).

Just sheer genius. I dont know how he came up with the concept. Teams with solid QBs are pretty much equivilant to real good teams. Go figure. Who wouldve thought. Someone tell this to Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano.
Click to expand...

I think most if not all of the "Pro Bowl" QBs in the NFC East are vastly overrated.
 
Interesting idea...a good QB means a good team. Somebody should tell WV about that idea....
 
lol 4 players on his list"Pro Bowl" QBs didn't even make the playoffs last season and Rivers even had the #1 defense and offense.
 
That formula sounds like something i heard on The Herd with Colin Cowherd,and WV,dude,we get that you think real highly of Matt Ryan,but you gotta get over it us not drafting him when we had the chance ok. That was a couple of years ago,you gotta find a way to put that behind you and move on ok.
 
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