Fox Sports has us ranked above NE and Atlanta | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Fox Sports has us ranked above NE and Atlanta

Before any ATL fans try to disprove this. Feel free to click on that page to learn about the DVOA rankings. They clearly make us the better team. At this point the 15th ranked team.
 
TEXANS 1-6
Once again, the 1976 Buccaneers pop the corks on their bottles of Cold Duck. NEXT: at JAC


ROFLMAO, I thought this was hillarious
 
BALLS DEEP said:
Interesting read. Fox Sports has us above all AFC East teams. It also has us above Atlanta.

Fox Sports Power Poll
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Yeah, I almost posted this earlier... i didn't read up on the DVOA system though. :eek: Cool beans man!! :lol:
 
Wow, I like to think that we are a pretty good team, but I believe they make us out to be a little bit better than we are. I don't think there's anyway we should be ranked above the Patriots OR the Falcons at this point. Maybe after the next two weeks... but both those teams have better records than us. Especially the Falcons who are at 5-2... how are they ranked behind us at 3-4?
 
BALLS DEEP said:
Before any ATL fans try to disprove this. Feel free to click on that page to learn about the DVOA rankings. They clearly make us the better team. At this point the 15th ranked team.
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I don't have to. Read why we're ranked 18th...

The Article said:
Why we were wrong about Atlanta



Nowhere did our statistical projection system differ from public perception like the NFC South, where the numbers gave Tampa Bay the strongest chance to win the division and Atlanta the weakest. The system ran our projections 1,500 times with random variation, and Atlanta only made the playoffs 10 percent of the time. The Falcons only won 5.2 games in the average simulated season. Of course, they've already won five games in the only season that matters, the real one.



The prediction of an Atlanta collapse was based on five things. Let's take a look at each one to see where we went wrong.



1) Michael Vick would not improve as a passer. So far, so good. Our ratings rank Vick 33rd out of 38 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 50 passes this season. His running value makes up for some of that but not all of it.



2) A strong passing game usually carries over from year-to-year more than a strong running game. This is the place where we need to improve our projection system in the future. A team as heavily dependent on the running game as Atlanta, which spreads the work around to multiple players  so one player's injury or decline doesn't screw up the whole team  might not follow the usual trends.



3) The defense was likely to decline. One of the trends we've discovered is that when a team is much better on third down than it is on first or second down, it is likely to get worse the following year. (The same is true in reverse, which is why Seattle's offense has improved this season.) Last year, DVOA ranked Atlanta 16th overall, but eighth on third down. What's strange is that the defense has declined, but Atlanta's defense is still much better on third downs. This year, DVOA ranks Atlanta's defense 25th overall but 12th on third downs.



4) The schedule was going to be the hardest in the NFC. We were looking at strength of schedule based on our projections, not last year's records, so we assumed Tampa Bay would be good and Green Bay would not. But we didn't assume that three AFC East teams would be decimated by injuries, or that New Orleans would be rendered homeless. We thought the NFC North would be bad, but not this bad. So Atlanta's schedule looks far easier than it did two months ago. Nonetheless, there are still tough games ahead. The Falcons have yet to play Carolina or Tampa Bay, and they still have to go to Detroit on Thanksgiving and play in Chicago on a cold December night.



5) The Falcons were lucky last year. Usually, a team that outscores its opponents by just three points should be expected to go 8-8, not 11-5. In general, teams that win more games than their points scored and allowed would otherwise be worse the next year. But Atlanta has been lucky again this year, just in a different way. Check our ratings, and you'll see that Atlanta would rank 11th before our adjustments but ranks 18th afterwards. That's because, as I detailed last week, they've had insanely good luck recovering fumbles, and at some point, those bounces are going to occasionally go against them.

With Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta all 5-2 and grouped together in our rankings, the NFC South is completely up in the air. We could still be right about the Falcons missing the playoffs. But we were wrong about them having a losing record this year.
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They've been wrong about us all year long, and they'll continue to be wrong right on through sunday.
 
Gonk said:
Wow, I like to think that we are a pretty good team, but I believe they make us out to be a little bit better than we are. I don't think there's anyway we should be ranked above the Patriots OR the Falcons at this point. Maybe after the next two weeks... but both those teams have better records than us. Especially the Falcons who are at 5-2... how are they ranked behind us at 3-4?
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Stength of schedule. We've beaten a couple of good teams. Remember Atlanta beat the Saints with a gift penalty by the officials to give their field goal kicker another shot.
None-the-less, I think you're right.
 
TGall13 said:
Stength of schedule. We've beaten a couple of good teams. Remember Atlanta beat the Saints with a gift penalty by the officials to give their field goal kicker another shot.
None-the-less, I think you're right.
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They didnt even have vick in that game, did they? i mean sure they squeezed out a lucky win but if they had had vick im sure the outcome would have been different.
 
PlayoffBound7 said:
I don't have to. Read why we're ranked 18th...



They've been wrong about us all year long, and they'll continue to be wrong right on through sunday.
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i guess its you against the world.....tear....sniffle, sniffle, shut up you stupid cry baby, dolphins have been getting screwed for years. everyones finally realizing how overrated mike vick is, the a** kissing contest for vick is over. they moved on to bruschi.
 
Yeah, FOX hates the Falcons. We win, we go down in rank, we lose, we go down 5 ranks.
 
finfan32 said:
i guess its you against the world.....tear....sniffle, sniffle, shut up you stupid cry baby, dolphins have been getting screwed for years. everyones finally realizing how overrated mike vick is, the a** kissing contest for vick is over. they moved on to bruschi.
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if 4-1 is overrated on the season then Gus Ferrote is the best quarterback in the nation.

The reason these power rankings have the Falcons so low and the one thing that they just can't measure is determination. And Mike is determined to win. You see it every game.
 
Gonk said:
Wow, I like to think that we are a pretty good team, but I believe they make us out to be a little bit better than we are. I don't think there's anyway we should be ranked above the Patriots OR the Falcons at this point. Maybe after the next two weeks... but both those teams have better records than us. Especially the Falcons who are at 5-2... how are they ranked behind us at 3-4?
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Ronnie doesn't fumble inside the Bills 10 and this team goes 4-3.

Saban's done a masterful coaching job so far.
 
VanDolPhan said:
Ronnie doesn't fumble inside the Bills 10 and this team goes 4-3.

Saban's done a masterful coaching job so far.
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Ya, but if Schulters doesn't pick off Del-homie, we are 3-4 again. But Atlanta has shown that they can't win games against good teams so far this season. Their only win over a marginally good team was against Philadelphia in week 1. I can see why we are ranked ahead of them when we beat Carolina and Denver. But they are pretty damn close in the rankings, so this should be a close game...assuming rankings matter ;)
 
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