Free Agency has (at least) three waves | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Free Agency has (at least) three waves

Feverdream

Feverdream

Super Donator
Club Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2003
Messages
16,440
Reaction score
44,136
First wave sees very good players sign for great salaries. Most teams lock up their truly great players so the FW (first wave) players are rarely bulletproof stars. They generally have age or injury concerns... personality defects or greed issues. They are, sadly, the best AVAILABLE players and they get overpaid, getting too many guaranteed years and/or ridiculously high signing bonuses. Stupid money. (Think Byron Jones)

The second wave provides players who are better than league average and league average types. They generally sign for pay that should go to borderline pro bowl players. These contracts are redeemable due to the fact that they are generally shorter and contain less bonus money than FW contracts. (Think Van Noy or Erick Erick Flowers)

The third wave gives us reclamation projects and older, but frequently productive depth players. One year contracts rule the day here. Sometimes, the price tends to be VERY reasonable. (Think Justin Coleman or Duke Riley).

...and this is how it works. Dont blame Grier or Bellicheat for this... it's supply and demand baby, you just accept this and move on.

So... the REAL question is... how many from each category? Those of you who have read my drunkenness in the past are well aware that I prefer players from the SW and TW unless we have a HUGE need (line anyone?).

I guess my point here is that folks shouldn't over focus on the FW, because much of the team building will come during the subsequent waves. Last year saw us sign 4 or 5 TW players who provided us with most of our best depth.

Stay calm... and keep your powder dry.
 
I’m glad we’re not rushing into any huge expensive signings. I’m not disappointed yet and actually think they might make some good decisions, time will tell
 
I can see 2 players in the first wave. Another 2-3 in that 2nd wave. And the rest in the third
 
Feverdream said:
First wave sees very good players sign for great salaries. Most teams lock up their truly great players so the FW (first wave) players are rarely bulletproof stars. They generally have age or injury concerns... personality defects or greed issues. They are, sadly, the best AVAILABLE players and they get overpaid, getting too many guaranteed years and/or ridiculously high signing bonuses. Stupid money. (Think Byron Jones)

The second wave provides players who are better than league average and league average types. They generally sign for pay that should go to borderline pro bowl players. These contracts are redeemable due to the fact that they are generally shorter and contain less bonus money than FW contracts. (Think Van Noy or Erick Erick Flowers)

The third wave gives us reclamation projects and older, but frequently productive depth players. One year contracts rule the day here. Sometimes, the price tends to be VERY reasonable. (Think Justin Coleman or Duke Riley).

...and this is how it works. Dont blame Grier or Bellicheat for this... it's supply and demand baby, you just accept this and move on.

So... the REAL question is... how many from each category? Those of you who have read my drunkenness in the past are well aware that I prefer players from the SW and TW unless we have a HUGE need (line anyone?).

I guess my point here is that folks shouldn't over focus on the FW, because much of the team building will come during the subsequent waves. Last year saw us sign 4 or 5 TW players who provided us with most of our best depth.

Stay calm... and keep your powder dry.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking One Top tier FA OT is a necessity. and possibly either a WR or LB (not both)

I expect a few second tier guys at positions like RB, Center and possibly back up QB.

I'm looking to draft a wideout, and pass rusher.

vote.jpg
 
artdnj said:
I’m glad we’re not rushing into any huge expensive signings. I’m not disappointed yet and actually think they might make some good decisions, time will tell
Click to expand...
Since the signing period hasn’t even started yet, I have no idea if they will be making a number of expensive signings. So far they have only shown they didn’t want to overpay a WR in Cooper by trading for him and they obviously believe Ogbah is asking for more than they believe he is worth.

Otherwise we have no way of knowing what large contracts they will be willing to give out once free agents can actually sign with another team.
 
Here's a potential (and IMO, realistic) FA haul for Miami.

T Armstead 20/per; back-up plan T Trent Brown 11/per
WR Juju 8/per; and/or WR Gage 8.5/per
RB Mostert 2/per
LB D'Vondre Campbell 9/per
ED Rasheem Green 6.5/per; Or ED Ogbonnia Okoronkwo 2.5/per
Swing T Lucas 2.5/per; Or T Notebloom 4/per
C Blyth 1.5/per
 
@Feverdream Spot on explanation of the state of FA.

FA is an overpay market while the draft is a significant underpay market... While this particular thread isnt about the draft, they absolutely go hand in hand when it comes to strategy. Generally, different position groups have different price tags, obviously...

QB >>> WR/T > EDGE,CB > IOL, DT, LB, S > TE/RB > P, K

Since the cap is really the only limitation on the talent you can add to your team, it stands to reason that in a perfect world, you'd like to underpay the more expensive position groups, overpaying the cheaper ones has less of an overall impact on your cap situation.

Sounds simple but then reality strikes... Fins have been drafting Tackles high in consecutive drafts and it looks like they failed at actually fixing the spot... I've seen rumors that the Fins might be in play for Armstead for 20+ M per(not saying its real, just using the example for the sake of argument)... Flat out overpayment over something that should've at least been partially fixed with the draft strategy.

Same with WR, while Fins havent invested much at the spot in the draft outside of Waddle, they're stuck in an overpay market for fixing the position. You're looking at a group where a very average guy in Kirk is reportedly going to make more than 15M per. This is insane but at the same time, anyone paying attention should've seen this coming.

Fins are literally in position to fix those 2 positions by making big mistakes in FA with limited short term consequences... But its not sustainable, if your draft strategy consistently puts you in position to have to make big mistakes in FA in order to win football games, you have to fix your draft strategy ASAP. Im not trying to bash Grier here as I think he's doing well in the big picture direction of operations, but he's got to fix the player picking part. Last draft was a step in the right direction.

Up to me? 1x 2nd tier WR(ie.JuJu), 2x 2nd tier RBs, 1x 2nd tier T, 1x 2nd tier IOL, 1x 2nd tier LB. And go draft high value positions in the draft.
 
NBP81 said:
@Feverdream Spot on explanation of the state of FA.

FA is an overpay market while the draft is a significant underpay market... While this particular thread isnt about the draft, they absolutely go hand in hand when it comes to strategy. Generally, different position groups have different price tags, obviously...

QB >>> WR/T > EDGE,CB > IOL, DT, LB, S > TE/RB > P, K

Since the cap is really the only limitation on the talent you can add to your team, it stands to reason that in a perfect world, you'd like to underpay the more expensive position groups, overpaying the cheaper ones has less of an overall impact on your cap situation.

Sounds simple but then reality strikes... Fins have been drafting Tackles high in consecutive drafts and it looks like they failed at actually fixing the spot... I've seen rumors that the Fins might be in play for Armstead for 20+ M per(not saying its real, just using the example for the sake of argument)... Flat out overpayment over something that should've at least been partially fixed with the draft strategy.

Same with WR, while Fins havent invested much at the spot in the draft outside of Waddle, they're stuck in an overpay market for fixing the position. You're looking at a group where a very average guy in Kirk is reportedly going to make more than 15M per. This is insane but at the same time, anyone paying attention should've seen this coming.

Fins are literally in position to fix those 2 positions by making big mistakes in FA with limited short term consequences... But its not sustainable, if your draft strategy consistently puts you in position to have to make big mistakes in FA in order to win football games, you have to fix your draft strategy ASAP. Im not trying to bash Grier here as I think he's doing well in the big picture direction of operations, but he's got to fix the player picking part. Last draft was a step in the right direction.

Up to me? 1x 2nd tier WR(ie.JuJu), 2x 2nd tier RBs, 1x 2nd tier T, 1x 2nd tier IOL, 1x 2nd tier LB. And go draft high value positions in the draft.
Click to expand...
Overall, I agree with your FA/draft philosophy. I wish we could have fixed the OL (particularly T) thru the draft. The truth is we failed. We have a team ready to compete now with a lot of solid players...and maybe only 2 impact players(X/waddle). I think this is the year to spend on 1st tier FAs (plural) to fix the OL (Armstead/Jensen) and then add a 2nd tier RB (Patterson) and add an MLB and WR thru the draft.
 
EROCK528 said:
Overall, I agree with your FA/draft philosophy. I wish we could have fixed the OL (particularly T) thru the draft. The truth is we failed. We have a team ready to compete now with a lot of solid players...and maybe only 2 impact players(X/waddle). I think this is the year to spend on 1st tier FAs (plural) to fix the OL (Armstead/Jensen) and then add a 2nd tier RB (Patterson) and add an MLB and WR thru the draft.
Click to expand...
TBH, I keep flip flopping between the 2 options... Stay on course and execute the optimal strategy or make a couple of clear mistakes that are somewhat manageable... The situation is still under control because Fins have a bunch of valuable players on rookie contracts, but if they dont fix their player picking problem, all of this will become a disaster really fast...
 
I think within the first seconds it will be announced Miami has signed Teron Armstead.

Within minutes of that it will be announced Laken Tomlinson has signed with Miami.

After that, it may be a while for Miami.

I think Miami would like to value shop Center with the draft. So Oakland, TB, Cincy, Tennessee and Buffalo are key tomorrow.

Philly resigning Kelce males them more likely to focus on defense and maybe WR in the draft leaving Linderbaum a chance to fall.
 
The Ogbah signing looks to be a Second Wave type of signing. The fact that the guaranteed portion of the contract is almost exactly half of the total published dollar amount makes it likely that this is actually a two year contract that is highly severable. He'll have to continue to play well in order to see the back half of this contract. It isn't stupid money, it's more of a Van Noy/Flowers number, but on a better player. A bit too high, but doable.

The Edmonds signing is a Third Wave kind of deal. Again, the guaranteed portion is about half of the total, which leads me to believe that this is a one year deal with the option to keep him for a second year. At 6m, it is a little high for a TW contract, but the time factor says, 'rental'.
 
In general, I'd prefer the second wave players. Of course, you've got to be flexible as a GM in case someone unexpected becomes available.

For Miami in 2022, if the team can add some solid offensive linemen without grossly overpaying I think that makes the most sense.

Wouldn't hate signing Armstead, but his price tag and injury history is a negative.
 
rafael said:
Here's a potential (and IMO, realistic) FA haul for Miami.

T Armstead 20/per; back-up plan T Trent Brown 11/per
WR Juju 8/per; and/or WR Gage 8.5/per
RB Mostert 2/per
LB D'Vondre Campbell 9/per
ED Rasheem Green 6.5/per; Or ED Ogbonnia Okoronkwo 2.5/per
Swing T Lucas 2.5/per; Or T Notebloom 4/per
C Blyth 1.5/per
Click to expand...
Well, your Notebloom comment aged quickly and poorly.
 
Thus far, I think we've stuck to our past approach to Free Agency. We have filled holes and looked for bargains...

The players that we have signed thus far have only gotten one or two year guarantees. (Yes, the contracts are technically longer, but honestly... does anyone believe that these things last longer than the guaranteed money?)

In Edmonds, we have the 1A part of our RB committee. Teddy replaces Brissett for about the same money. Ogbah returns for 2 years, and we've added a 3rd receiver on the cheap.

What didn't we do? We didn't sign a single top tier target. We avoided a JC Jackson outlay. We avoided signing 20m dollar WRs, and we were not even briefly linked to Wagner... WIN!!!

I'm pretty happy with this. The only large dollar acquisitions I wanted were linemen... and that pool is still deep. (Tomorrow)

This has been a classic Grier approach to Free Agency.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom