Actually, aside from Favre, Manning, and Brady, Bledsoe is the only currently active QB with a realistic chance at the HOF right now. His career stats are very good, he's a mutliple Pro Bowler on two different teams, and yes, longevity does count since he's been a starter for a lot of years (1994-2005, I think). He won't be a first ballot pick, but I think he gets in eventually.
Actually, a large portion of Bledsoe's career statistics (not that that's all I base assessment on) are pretty pedestrian. If I take Hall of Fame to mean "best of the best"...that's not what Bledsoe has given.
His career passer rating is 77.1, and he's only eclipsed 80 in 5 of his 13 seasons. In 7 seasons (including injury/Brady shortened 01), he threw either the same or a larger amount of interceptions than he did touchdowns.
Have players with marginal passer ratings or statistics like that gotten in before? Sure, Terry Bradshaw for one...but he played in a different era that didn't have the rules that benefitted the receiver/quarterback that Bledsoe did. Not only that, Terry Bradshaw won championships. Multiple rings. Drew has one ring, but he played in only two and a half games on the year, and other than his AFC Championship play, had little to do with it. He did lead his Patriot team to another Super Bowl, but lost it.
Elway's passer rating was about 79, but he won two titles, and was one of the best 4th quarter comeback QBs in history. He also played in five Super Bowls overall and he showed the team success it hadn't known before.
The New England Patriots went 64-64 in Bledsoe's 8 years as a starter (not including injury/Brady 2001). The Bills and Cowboys struggled under Bledsoe, largely due to him. The Broncos were 161-95 in the 16 years Elway started, including 5 SB appearances. Even his final season was a great year for him.
I'm never a proponent of going strictly by Rings, SB appearances, W-L record for a QB, because I feel that's not a fair measure. But we know that's what the Hall voters like. If your numbers are stunning/phenomenal, you can still get in without them (like Marino), but when you're Bledsoe, you need that extra resume padding, since your numbers are average.
Not to mention that the voters aren't going to be very forgiving of mediocre numbers given all of the rule changes to emphasize offense in the last decade or so, which many of the HOF quarterbacks did not benefit from. 77.1 passer rating in 1983 would draw a lot less scrutiny than now. Yes, it's not atypical for the type of thrower Bledsoe is, but....
Even observationally...the dude is not a legendary quarterback. He was a slightly above average downfield thrower, but not an HOF quarterback. He made a lot of stupid throws, wasn't a great leader, and really took a downward slide towards the end of his career. If he gets in, it's strictly due to having nobody else to choose from. He'll get nominated,
BTW, I don't believe that the CFL and/or the Arena Football League count in Hall of Fame balloting. The HOF only considers "major league" performance, meaning the NFL as well as other leagues that have been absorbed into the NFL which would be the All American Football Conference (the league back in the 1940s from which the Browns came) and the American Football League (the league back in the 1960s that contained the teams that became the original AFC teams: Boston (now NE), Buffalo, Cincinatti, Denver, Houston (now Tennessee), Kansas City, Miami, New York Jets, Oakland, San Diego).
edit: the USFL folded and its players were dispersed among NFL teams and I don't think it counts for HOF achievement!
I think it's pointless to argue this, because even if Hall of Fame executives urged voters not to vote based on CFL achievements, nobody can truly verify whether a voter considered that or not when they cast their vote. That decision, like it or not, is truly up to the voter. And I fail to believe such merits have never been considered.