Greg Cote: In Great Disconnect On Dolphins’ Expectations, These Factors Will Tell Us Who’s Right | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Greg Cote: In Great Disconnect On Dolphins’ Expectations, These Factors Will Tell Us Who’s Right

DKphin

DKphin

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The smart guys in Las Vegas who set the odds and betting lines for sports are not often wrong to the extreme. They’re human, yes. Right under their noses, they failed to see the expansion Vegas Golden Knights being any good this season, let alone reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. But for the most part, when they say your NFL team’s projected over/under on season victories is 5 1/2, you may officially begin to curb your enthusiasm.

http://www.valdostadailytimes.com/s...cle_8a956d64-401c-5fd2-857a-3b42e9a9288d.html
 
I'll take the over and then some.

is there a bet you can make with the over and get a bigger payback based on how much they beat the spread?
 
Confident in 1,2,7 & 8. not so sure about the middle 4, but I definitely will check out the sports room at the casino next time I go because I see more than 6 wins
 
If RT and Raekwon don’t get injured, this team wins 3-4 more games last year and Vegas would have been wrong.
 
Again, this is the situation for 90% of the teams int he NFL. Things have to go right. And SO many things went wrong for the Dolphins last year. Cote didn't even cover all of them.

The "next man up" mentality is all well and good, but when the next man up at MLB actually has a breakdown of sorts...and you're on the next man up AFTER the next man up there before the season even STARTS? You're having a bad year.
 
The Goat said:
Again, this is the situation for 90% of the teams int he NFL. Things have to go right. And SO many things went wrong for the Dolphins last year. Cote didn't even cover all of them.

The "next man up" mentality is all well and good, but when the next man up at MLB actually has a breakdown of sorts...and you're on the next man up AFTER the next man up there before the season even STARTS? You're having a bad year.
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Agreed, but every pundit's predictions are based on no injuries. We never see, 'I'd predict Houston to win 10, but since Watt will probably get injured again . . .'
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Agreed, but every pundit's predictions are based on no injuries. We never see, 'I'd predict Houston to win 10, but since Watt will probably get injured again . . .'
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I don't think this is accurate. Cote himself in this article says that Tannehill staying healthy is no longer a given.
 
The Goat said:
I don't think this is accurate. Cote himself in this article says that Tannehill staying healthy is no longer a given.
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And I agree with that. But Cote made no win/loss predictions. He simply said a number of things have to go right to have a good season. True of every team.
 
Pretty sure they see significant top shelf talent losses (Suh + Landry) coupled with an unproven QB (post injury etc.) and I'd assume at least some ??? regarding Gase as the head man.

All that together = a pretty heavy dose of reality + perception.

Personally, I would not be "shocked" if we play under 500 ball. I'd certainly be very disappointed. But pretty much used to that.

BNF
 
I normally don't care about all these articles or Vegas for that matter. It all comes down to what the team does out on the field. In a few months we'll see who was right.
 
Well, based on last year's predictions, Vegas is not doing so hot. If you compare the actual wins total for each team to the 2017 projections, Vegas sucks. I compared each projection to the actual results and found that 11 times the win total was within 1.5 wins of the projection, 16 times there was more than a 1.5 win variance, and 5 times it was exactly 1.5 wins.

Notable flubs? Vikings (8.5 vs 13), Eagles (8 vs 13), Rams (5.5 vs 11), Panthers (8.5 vs 11), Jags (6 vs 10), Saints (8 vs 11), Raiders (10 vs 6), Colts (9 vs 4), Texans (8.5 vs 4), Bills (6 vs 9), Giants (9 vs 3)

They almost completely whiffed on the NFC playoff teams.

I think it is safe to say that Vegas has no clue as to which teams will be the turnaround teams in a given season.
 
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They need to hurry up and get the sports betting going in Atlantic City so I can put a large OVER bet in for the season. Risky to do now without knowing potential injuries, but I foresee that line moving up to 6/6.5 before the season starts assuming no major injuries.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
Well, based on last year's predictions, Vegas is not doing so hot. If you compare the actual wins total for each team to the 2017 projections, Vegas sucks. I compared each projection to the actual results and found that 11 times the win total was within 1.5 wins of the projection, 16 times there was more than a 1.5 win variance, and 5 times it was exactly 1.5 wins.

Notable flubs? Vikings (8.5 vs 13), Eagles (8 vs 13), Rams (5.5 vs 11), Panthers (8.5 vs 11), Jags (6 vs 10), Saints (8 vs 11), Raiders (10 vs 6), Colts (9 vs 4), Texans (8.5 vs 4), Bills (6 vs 9), Giants (9 vs 3)

They almost completely whiffed on the NFC playoff teams.

I think it is safe to say that Vegas has no clue as to which teams will be the turnaround teams in a given season.
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Don't you miss those long-winded, "I'm so smart and you're not" declarations why convoluted generalizations doom the Fins?
 
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