Has Ted Ginn Lived Up to a Top Ten Pick So Far? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Has Ted Ginn Lived Up to a Top Ten Pick So Far?

Rhody Phins Fan

Rhody Phins Fan

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I often see people saying that Ted Ginn hasn't performed like a wide receiver chosen in the top ten should so I looked back at all of the wide receivers drafted in the top ten since 2000. In that time 15 wide receivers were chosen in the top then. Here are their #'s from their first three seasons:
2000
#4 Peter Warrick 51-592 70-667 53-606
#8 Plaxico Burress 22-273 66-1008 78-1325
#10 Travis Taylor 28-276 42-560 61-869
2001
#8 David Terrell 32-415 9-127 43-361
#9 Koren Robinson 39-536 78-1240 65-896
2003
#2 Charles Rogers 22-243 0-0 14-197
#3 Andre Johnson 66-976 79-1142 63-688
2004
#3 Larry Fitzgerald 58-780 103-1409 69-946
#7 Roy Williams 54-817 45-687 82-1310
#9 Reggie Williams 27-268 35-445 52-616
2005
#3 Braylon Edwards 32-512 61-884 80-1289
#8 Troy Williamson 24-372 37-455 18-240
#10 Mike Williams 29-350 8-99 7-90
2007
#2 Calvin Johnson 48-756 78-1331
#9 Ted Ginn 34-420 56-790
Click to expand...

Taking into account all of these receivers, their average first season was 37 catches for 493 yards which was slightly over what Ginn did. In their second season they averaged 48 catches for 671 yards which Ginn surpassed in his second season. In their third year they averaged 52 for 725 which Ginn should be able to surpass as well.

If you eliminate the Top 5 picks from consideration the 1st year average drops to 31-413 and the 2nd season average drops to 40-577.

Any way that you cut it, Ted Ginn has, at the very least, provided the statistics of an average top ten drafted WR and has already passed by the average wide receiver chosen between picks 6-10.

Please stop saying that Ted Ginn hasn't performed like a WR drafted in the Top 10 because he has. He may not have lived up to your expectations but he has lived up to recent historical expectations.
 
People don't understand that speedy receivers take longer to get acclimated to the speed of the game than freaks of nature like Calvin Johnson do.

You can't take the same angles you take in college in the pro game, everyone is just too fast.
 
You can present stats proving your point and Ginn can make amazing catches week after week yet some fans will still never stop hating Ginn. It's a sad fact but it's true, and it's the same with the Penny bashers. Nothing will change their mind. I appreciate your post though!
 
Rhody Phins Fan said:
I often see people saying that Ted Ginn hasn't performed like a wide receiver chosen in the top ten should so I looked back at all of the wide receivers drafted in the top ten since 2000. In that time 15 wide receivers were chosen in the top then. Here are their #'s from their first three seasons:


Taking into account all of these receivers, their average first season was 37 catches for 493 yards which was slightly over what Ginn did. In their second season they averaged 48 catches for 671 yards which Ginn surpassed in his second season. In their third year they averaged 52 for 725 which Ginn should be able to surpass as well.

If you eliminate the Top 5 picks from consideration the 1st year average drops to 31-413 and the 2nd season average drops to 40-577.

Any way that you cut it, Ted Ginn has, at the very least, provided the statistics of an average top ten drafted WR and has already passed by the average wide receiver chosen between picks 6-10.

Please stop saying that Ted Ginn hasn't performed like a WR drafted in the Top 10 because he has. He may not have lived up to your expectations but he has lived up to recent historical expectations.
Click to expand...

I have already done this in another thread.

Averages do not work for this analysis. If you use averages, you are then averaging in busts. If you want to take into account those stats and hope he measures up to them, then go ahead. Otherwise those stats are useless.

If you compare his numbers to the players who have been contributors to thier teams as a top 10 pick at wideout, he doesn'r even come close.

So to answer your question, NO!
 
phishinphin said:
I have already done this in another thread.

Averages do not work for this analysis. If you use averages, you are then averaging in busts. If you want to take into account those stats and hope he measures up to them, then go ahead. Otherwise those stats are useless.

If you compare his numbers to the players who have been contributors to thier teams as a top 10 pick at wideout, he doesn'r even come close.

So to answer your question, NO!
Click to expand...

Of the 6 wide receivers in that group who became quality NFL receivers, 4 of them were top 3 picks so you can't really compare them to Ginn either. The other two were Roy Williams (7th) and Plaxico (8th) and Ginn's first two seasons compare closely to theirs.
 
illscriptures said:
People don't understand that speedy receivers take longer to get acclimated to the speed of the game than freaks of nature like Calvin Johnson do.

You can't take the same angles you take in college in the pro game, everyone is just too fast.
Click to expand...


WR's dont "take angles..." they run routes, catch the ball, and YAC.
Ginn was drafted as a KR first. He has been outperformed by both Camarillo and Bess. I guess as a top 10 draft pick, given the other two guys were more consistent and dependable, Ginn has not lived up to his salary or draft status.
 
I can't knock on Ginn....it's not his fault the FO thought they needed a WR when they really needed an o-line and QB...when we have the rest of the offense set maybe then we can really get an evaluation of Ginn.
 
Quick answer....not yet, but if he keeps improving like he has, yes.
 
phinfreak said:
He has been outperformed by both Camarillo and Bess.
Click to expand...

Why do people keep saying this? If you want to make the argument about Camarillo I have no problem with that because he had better numbers than Ginn before going down but not with Bess. Ginn had more catches, yards, touchdowns, yards per catch and first downs than Bess. Bess did not outperform Ginn.

phinfreak said:
Ginn has not lived up to his salary or draft status.
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Ginn's cap hit was 48th in the NFL for wide receivers this year.
 
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So far Ginn has done enough to be given the benefit of the doubt. If he continues improving, I'll satisfied with his drafting position.
 
NYinBostonFin said:
The brilliant Cameron speech after he was drafted. I'm sure you remember it, it was infuriating.
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I actually meant the part about Bess but people taking Cameron out of context is also annoying. If you give any thought to it at all, it's obvious that he didn't actually draft him to be a kick returner.
 
Rhody Phins Fan said:
Of the 6 wide receivers in that group who became quality NFL receivers, 4 of them were top 3 picks so you can't really compare them to Ginn either. The other two were Roy Williams (7th) and Plaxico (8th) and Ginn's first two seasons compare closely to theirs.
Click to expand...

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/ginn-has-to-go-236911-6.html Post #78

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/ginn-has-to-go-236911-9.html Post #122, 138, 154, 164

This is the same old arguement. By the end of this season, we will know exactly what we have in Ginn. It will be the end of his magical third season that most of you Ginn lovers say it takes to develop a WR. I can't wait to see how it unfolds.
 
I agree with Phishinphin that you do not want to average in the busts. Charles Rogers, David Terrell, and Mike Williams are regarded as busts by almost everyone. After removing them from the list, the median values will move up.

1st Year Median (6th of 12): 536
2nd Year Median (6th of 12): 884

Ginn 1st: 420
Ginn 2nd: 790

Ginn is performing slightly below the median. The median draft position is the 8th pick. Ginn is one position back. I am not sure that your approach for evaluating the receivers is a good one, but Ginn is performing precisely to expectation based upon your evaluation approach.
 
phishinphin said:
http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/ginn-has-to-go-236911-6.html Post #78

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/ginn-has-to-go-236911-9.html Post #122, 138, 154, 164

This is the same old arguement. By the end of this season, we will know exactly what we have in Ginn. It will be the end of his magical third season that most of you Ginn lovers say it takes to develop a WR. I can't wait to see how it unfolds.
Click to expand...

You sound excited at the prospect that he doesn't pan out.
 
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