My eval so far:
a) consistently excellent value on trades for picks
b) league average returns on 1-2 round draft picks the past 4 years (just because you trade a player doesn't mean he's a bust, you need to look at the value you got back for them)
c) above average returns bottom of the draft / UDFA past 4 years
c) I applaud the boldness in scorching the roster for Tua (as long as they actually pick him), I do believe it was necessary to all but ensure the #1 pick in a 16-game season where variance is high
d) very few GMs have a track record of special talent in picking players. Most fall in the average range, some are horrid. If we agree Grier is in that average range, then it makes total sense to stock up on as much ammo as possible within a short window to 'surge' for a rebuild. Also, if you are average in picking, then making sure you get a franchise QB is the main thing. After that, you have much greater room for error to make 'safe picks'. So I agree that going all out to get the #1 for Tua makes a ton of sense.
e) could've structured the tank to allow for those on the squad to grow. Don't you want a stable offensive line to be able to evaluate skill players? I imagine there are ways of tanking that still allow you to keep continuity so the whole season is not a total waste. In fact I'd rather that they gut one whole side of the ball--say the defense for example---to at least allow the other half to make progress while still keeping the win total super low. Would also be great for team morale / culture buy-in to see at least one unit make obvious progress. Doesn't seem like he thought it through to this level.
f) Coaching staff seems relatively competent but jury still out on some position groups
I think people don't appreciate how much luck is involved with drafting and forget that hindsight is 20/20. I really think that most of the respected members on this forum applauded the minkah pick, and few could've thought he would flame out for the reason he did. Certainly the vast majority seemed to think it was a solid, defensible pick, same as Wilkins. Thus how can you blame Grier for this, especially since he was drafted under a different defensive system entirely?
Therefore, luck also extends to drafts as a whole. Say we end up with 8 1st and 2nd round picks the next 2 years. Statistically that is a very small sample size. Even if you had great decision making, there is a high chance that several of those could flame out. How many people panned Jeff Ireland's and Rick Spielman's drafts while here? But they've drafted quite well since then. Small sample size. Put another way, given the same quality of decision making, those 8 picks could end up being 3 all pros or none, just based on luck, and the difference could sink or swim your franchise.
A huge pet peeve is seeing people judge a decision or small set of decisions simply based on the outcome. You really need to look at the underlying reasons when the sample size is small, and realize sometimes things fail even when you make great decisions. That's what makes getting Tua so critical, because margin for error is so much greater if you have a transcendent talent at QB.
It's like the stock market...if you have a base of money (Tua + good coaching staff), then you can afford to invest in mutual funds (take safe picks) rather than trying to beat the market, and still retire comfortably.
From another direction, if you don't think you can beat the market, the smartest thing to do is ensure a franchise qb any way you can, load up on picks and money, and surround them with good coaches. Then try to be league average on your fa / draft returns.
Bottom line: I like the way overall he has setup the big picture, but don't think he has any special ability to pick'em in the draft. As always, we will need a bit of good luck with our picks -- or at least not bad luck -- to have the tank truly be worth it but the overall strategy makes a lot of sense. Hopefully he realizes he is not a talent evaluation genius and relies on a consensus approach with respected folks like Ozzie Newsom to pick our top picks.
a) consistently excellent value on trades for picks
b) league average returns on 1-2 round draft picks the past 4 years (just because you trade a player doesn't mean he's a bust, you need to look at the value you got back for them)
c) above average returns bottom of the draft / UDFA past 4 years
c) I applaud the boldness in scorching the roster for Tua (as long as they actually pick him), I do believe it was necessary to all but ensure the #1 pick in a 16-game season where variance is high
d) very few GMs have a track record of special talent in picking players. Most fall in the average range, some are horrid. If we agree Grier is in that average range, then it makes total sense to stock up on as much ammo as possible within a short window to 'surge' for a rebuild. Also, if you are average in picking, then making sure you get a franchise QB is the main thing. After that, you have much greater room for error to make 'safe picks'. So I agree that going all out to get the #1 for Tua makes a ton of sense.
e) could've structured the tank to allow for those on the squad to grow. Don't you want a stable offensive line to be able to evaluate skill players? I imagine there are ways of tanking that still allow you to keep continuity so the whole season is not a total waste. In fact I'd rather that they gut one whole side of the ball--say the defense for example---to at least allow the other half to make progress while still keeping the win total super low. Would also be great for team morale / culture buy-in to see at least one unit make obvious progress. Doesn't seem like he thought it through to this level.
f) Coaching staff seems relatively competent but jury still out on some position groups
I think people don't appreciate how much luck is involved with drafting and forget that hindsight is 20/20. I really think that most of the respected members on this forum applauded the minkah pick, and few could've thought he would flame out for the reason he did. Certainly the vast majority seemed to think it was a solid, defensible pick, same as Wilkins. Thus how can you blame Grier for this, especially since he was drafted under a different defensive system entirely?
Therefore, luck also extends to drafts as a whole. Say we end up with 8 1st and 2nd round picks the next 2 years. Statistically that is a very small sample size. Even if you had great decision making, there is a high chance that several of those could flame out. How many people panned Jeff Ireland's and Rick Spielman's drafts while here? But they've drafted quite well since then. Small sample size. Put another way, given the same quality of decision making, those 8 picks could end up being 3 all pros or none, just based on luck, and the difference could sink or swim your franchise.
A huge pet peeve is seeing people judge a decision or small set of decisions simply based on the outcome. You really need to look at the underlying reasons when the sample size is small, and realize sometimes things fail even when you make great decisions. That's what makes getting Tua so critical, because margin for error is so much greater if you have a transcendent talent at QB.
It's like the stock market...if you have a base of money (Tua + good coaching staff), then you can afford to invest in mutual funds (take safe picks) rather than trying to beat the market, and still retire comfortably.
From another direction, if you don't think you can beat the market, the smartest thing to do is ensure a franchise qb any way you can, load up on picks and money, and surround them with good coaches. Then try to be league average on your fa / draft returns.
Bottom line: I like the way overall he has setup the big picture, but don't think he has any special ability to pick'em in the draft. As always, we will need a bit of good luck with our picks -- or at least not bad luck -- to have the tank truly be worth it but the overall strategy makes a lot of sense. Hopefully he realizes he is not a talent evaluation genius and relies on a consensus approach with respected folks like Ozzie Newsom to pick our top picks.
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