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How Disappointed Would You Be If...

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dolphinheel

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The home run here, if the Fins are serious about getting at the top of point scoring, is getting out of the 1st with 2 of Smith-Waddle-Pitts-Chase. Not only will you have more than enough skill to really put pressure on opposing defenses, you'll have your QB, half of your OL and your top receiving options under rookie contracts for at least another 3 years.

That really gives you alot of flexibility to really build a solid(SOLID) team around that group. It doesnt open a championship window, it opens a ****ing Garage door!
Excellent take. To be good for a lot of years you need to hit on your high draft picks and have them under their rookie deal 4-5 yrs. As much as I’d hate it I could easily see us trading X before the draft, because that’s what Belichick would do rather then renegotiate.
 

Mach2

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When 1st RD SEC WR's hit twice as often as 1st RD non-SEC WR's, I'd say it's relevant.
Fair enough, and I don't doubt that to be the case.

What I have a bit of a problem with is terms like "hit", "bust", "elite", etc.

They are not clearly defined terms.

If you say SEC receivers are, as a whole, safer bets not to be disastrous than other conferences, I would say that's probably true. It is also probably true of many other positions, as they get the athletic cream of the crop, and their academic requirements are not as rigid as some other conferences. I would also say, outside of a couple other powerhouse programs, SEC coaching is probably as close to NFL level as the college game gets.

In reality, the SEC puts more players in the NFL than any other conference for the reasons mentioned. They are generally better athletes and football players to begin with. It isn't really any surprise they they end up statistically better. That still, to me doesn't tip the scales of value for exactly that reason. Less chance of "bust" coming from a top SEC program, as opposed to the entirety of D1, I agree. Less chance than say another top program like Ohio State (and I loathe them)?, Clemson?, Michigan? IDK about that.

All of that to say you still have to evaluate the individual, regardless of the school. The level of competition faced can't be ignored, but I also don't give extra credit for simply being an SEC player.
 

Swollcolb

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Only way I would be upset is if we don’t land 1 of the top 3 RBs Harris, Etienne or Javonte Williams. And don’t land one of the top receivers Chase, Smith and Waddle. If we don’t land at least one of those top 6 players I will be pretty upset
 

juniorseau55

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The draft can be everyone that I didn't wanted for all I care. If we win the division, reach the playoffs, and have some type of success it doesn't matter who gets pick or not. The draft is there to further bolster the teams needs. And not everyone that gets picked automatically becomes a factor for their team. I want this team to be great, to win the division, the conference, and reach the Super Bowl. The results in the end is what would make anything disappointing then the rest of this draft is just hindsight when we go back and see who we should have picked.
 

1972forever

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What’s the difference between what you said and placing a number of Qb’s on a stacked Alabama roster? Jones stats this past year are just as good as what Tua put up in 2018, no?
I didn’t say there was a difference. I just happen to believe that Tua will be one of the best QB’s in the league over the next decade while I don’t believe that Wilson or Fields will be anything more than average NFL QB’s at best.

In fact I like Jones more than either Fields or Wilson and I hope Jones doesn’t end up with the Patriots or Jets.
 

Jssanto

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Also depends on what positions we add to in FA. That will be official March 17, I think, which is 5-6 weeks before the draft. That will really help focus the pics and needs for all teams.
 

13marino13

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The home run here, if the Fins are serious about getting at the top of point scoring, is getting out of the 1st with 2 of Smith-Waddle-Pitts-Chase. Not only will you have more than enough skill to really put pressure on opposing defenses, you'll have your QB, half of your OL and your top receiving options under rookie contracts for at least another 3 years.

That really gives you alot of flexibility to really build a solid(SOLID) team around that group. It doesnt open a championship window, it opens a ****ing Garage door!
Do you have one of those fancy NPB graphs to support this? :wnkr:
 

j-off-her-doll

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Fair enough, and I don't doubt that to be the case.

What I have a bit of a problem with is terms like "hit", "bust", "elite", etc.

They are not clearly defined terms.

If you say SEC receivers are, as a whole, safer bets not to be disastrous than other conferences, I would say that's probably true. It is also probably true of many other positions, as they get the athletic cream of the crop, and their academic requirements are not as rigid as some other conferences. I would also say, outside of a couple other powerhouse programs, SEC coaching is probably as close to NFL level as the college game gets.

In reality, the SEC puts more players in the NFL than any other conference for the reasons mentioned. They are generally better athletes and football players to begin with. It isn't really any surprise they they end up statistically better. That still, to me doesn't tip the scales of value for exactly that reason. Less chance of "bust" coming from a top SEC program, as opposed to the entirety of D1, I agree. Less chance than say another top program like Ohio State (and I loathe them)?, Clemson?, Michigan? IDK about that.

All of that to say you still have to evaluate the individual, regardless of the school. The level of competition faced can't be ignored, but I also don't give extra credit for simply being an SEC player.

It's that, but I think its more that SEC WR's are easier to evaluate. If they look good, they probably are. They faced a bunch of guys who will play in the NFL - some at a high level.

As you get deeper into the draft, you get sporadic big hits on guys from other Power 5 schools or from small schools, but you get basically no big hits from the SEC. This was imo the most novel idea in NBP81's charts on the subject. It's not just that the SEC is loaded with talent, but the NFL will scoop up all the good WR's from the SEC before the start of the 3rd Round - year after year. Super-high hit rate, so it's not like they're over-drafting them. They're really under-drafting them, but no one falls through the cracks. It's pretty remarkable.

In Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock (believe hoops posted it), Smith and Waddle fall outside the Top 10. I think it could well happen, but I think it'd be a big mistake by the NFL. High ceilings, high floors, premium position - directly helps your QB.
 

Mach2

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It's that, but I think its more that SEC WR's are easier to evaluate. If they look good, they probably are. They faced a bunch of guys who will play in the NFL - some at a high level.

As you get deeper into the draft, you get sporadic big hits on guys from other Power 5 schools or from small schools, but you get basically no big hits from the SEC. This was imo the most novel idea in NBP81's charts on the subject. It's not just that the SEC is loaded with talent, but the NFL will scoop up all the good WR's from the SEC before the start of the 3rd Round - year after year. Super-high hit rate, so it's not like they're over-drafting them. They're really under-drafting them, but no one falls through the cracks. It's pretty remarkable.

In Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock (believe hoops posted it), Smith and Waddle fall outside the Top 10. I think it could well happen, but I think it'd be a big mistake by the NFL. High ceilings, high floors, premium position - directly helps your QB.
Excellent point.

I saw that DJ mock too. I thought he was "all over the place" with his evals, not just WRs either.

A lot of these "gurus" tend to put out so many mocks they will, at some point, be right. Then they point to one of the many and say "see, I told you so".

I do think it's almost a certainty that one of the "top" recieving prospects fall past 10, but its more of a numbers/team needs thing than an indictment of the player himself.

If 3 or 4 QBs are taken, an OT, a corner, 2 WRs, that's 6 or 7 picks right there, with only 1 being a defensive player.

It isn't hard to imagine a wideout falling. Falling to 18 is doubtful though.
 

NBP81

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It's that, but I think its more that SEC WR's are easier to evaluate. If they look good, they probably are. They faced a bunch of guys who will play in the NFL - some at a high level.

As you get deeper into the draft, you get sporadic big hits on guys from other Power 5 schools or from small schools, but you get basically no big hits from the SEC. This was imo the most novel idea in NBP81's charts on the subject. It's not just that the SEC is loaded with talent, but the NFL will scoop up all the good WR's from the SEC before the start of the 3rd Round - year after year. Super-high hit rate, so it's not like they're over-drafting them. They're really under-drafting them, but no one falls through the cracks. It's pretty remarkable.

In Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock (believe hoops posted it), Smith and Waddle fall outside the Top 10. I think it could well happen, but I think it'd be a big mistake by the NFL. High ceilings, high floors, premium position - directly helps your QB.
I've been trying to put this into coherent sentences for days now without any success... You flat out nailed it. Hit rate charts arent a reflection of the expected talent for any given pick, they're a reflection of GMs effeciency at picking players. ie. non-SEC WR gets picked at 8 and right after SEC WR gets picked at 9. I'd project the SEC player with a better outlook, and its not because I think he's better than the non-SEC player, its simply because I think a pro GM(or anyone really) is less likely to make a mistake on the SEC player.
 

hoops

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Neither goes top 10...I think it’s very possible

the nfl loves prototypes at the top of the draft. Outside of qb there really doesn’t seem to have been much recent movement with that. (And for a long time there was none)

I have a strong feel that jamar chase gets drafted first of the WRs
 

Feverdream

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Excellent point.

I saw that DJ mock too. I thought he was "all over the place" with his evals, not just WRs either.

A lot of these "gurus" tend to put out so many mocks they will, at some point, be right. Then they point to one of the many and say "see, I told you so".

I do think it's almost a certainty that one of the "top" recieving prospects fall past 10, but its more of a numbers/team needs thing than an indictment of the player himself.

If 3 or 4 QBs are taken, an OT, a corner, 2 WRs, that's 6 or 7 picks right there, with only 1 being a defensive player.

It isn't hard to imagine a wideout falling. Falling to 18 is doubtful though.
Remember... in last year's draft, the third WR was taken at 17, and that draft class was as over-hyped as this one's.

I think 18 is certainly possible. I'm not going for 'likely', but it is possible... especially if some of the top half teams covet a Bateman or a Marshall... and are willing to wait a bit to see what happens.
 

hoops

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I think it’s possible too a top 3 wr makes pick 18

if I had to pick one I’d pick waddle cause again teams may see him as your typical slot/gimmick/across the backfield motion/specials usage guy

I’m telling ya the nfl does a lot of pigeonholing guys

I have no doubts he’d be at worst a 3rd boundary option for Miami but I also have no doubts he’d be that for a lot of other teams also.
 
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