In my attempts to drift off to sleep last night, I had a conversation in my head with myself about who could likely try to jump us, or who could take him ahead of us. The conclusion I came to was that there is no obvious team that either has the ammunition to move up or can afford to take the risk we can on drafting a QB that probably won't play much part in 2020.
Of the teams that worried me most, were:
The Redskins, Rivera has a long leash, he can afford to let a QB sit for a year, he's not invested in Haskins and that organisation may not be either, however the draw to pick Young (the player most anlysts think is the best one in the draft, at a positional he clearly values) above a not healthy Tua is probably too much for the Skins to really be in play, they won't be in the market to trade down with anyone else also if that's their thinking.
The Chargers, picking right behind us, have a burning need to replace Rivers and need to bring someone in who can help them sell tickets. The thing that makes me positive here though is that Lynn can probably not afford another season like the last one, they will need to pick a player that can contribute to 2020, going into the new stadium as a losing team isn't going to help in the drive to not be an after thought in that market. They also don't have the draft capital that we do, which means we can outbid anything they offer.
The Bucs. Winston is an FA and not certain of being offered an extension, Arians values QB's who can throw the deep ball well, and Tua is great at that. However they pick even further behind us and again we can outbid them. I still think Arians is on the Winston bus and they do get a deal done, but if they don't I think Love or Herbert are probably more achievable targets they will focus on.
The Raiders, I left them to the end because they are my biggest concern. Chucky hasn't fully endorsed Carr. Carr is an average caliber QB in the NFL, sure you can win with him if you put the pieces around him, just like Tanny, but I think Chucky knows what he has. They have two first rounders, the have amunition right now to move up, we can still outbid whatever they have though. But the reason why they are my biggest concern is that Carr does have trade value, unlike Rivers or Winston (because of his FA) Las Vegas can expect a high draft pick in return, they could for example package something with Detriot to send Carr there along with one of their firsts to move to #3. The counter here is I use Detriot because it was a struggle to find a natural trade partner for them here in the top 4. Detroit may not have a whole lot of interest in this, as it's questionable whether Carr is an upgrade on Stafford. The Giants won't buy that trade because they have their man in Jones, the Skins may have been interested but would lose out on Young if they took it.
Jax can't afford to invest in a QB again right now, the Panthers and Colts have the same problem as the chargers in that although needing a QB, don't have the ammunition to be able to jump us. The Cheats and Saints, have way too far to go. If the Cowboys don't resign Prescott they could be in play but again outbidding us would be difficult and I think it's more likely than not that they do sign Dak. The other teams are unlikly to be in play in my view.
So we may not have to give up anything, however as others said no price is too great to secure your franchise QB, I firmly believe Tua will become that if we pick him. If the FO share that opinion then you do what you have to. I think we can get to 3 with a 2nd and the comp 4th pick, I would do that in a heartbeat right now, we may need to give up more however.