How much would give the Lions for the #3 pick | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

How much would give the Lions for the #3 pick

Stay put and let the chips fall where they may. If not, trade down no more that 5 spots and pocket extra picks.
 
In my attempts to drift off to sleep last night, I had a conversation in my head with myself about who could likely try to jump us, or who could take him ahead of us. The conclusion I came to was that there is no obvious team that either has the ammunition to move up or can afford to take the risk we can on drafting a QB that probably won't play much part in 2020.

Of the teams that worried me most, were:
The Redskins, Rivera has a long leash, he can afford to let a QB sit for a year, he's not invested in Haskins and that organisation may not be either, however the draw to pick Young (the player most anlysts think is the best one in the draft, at a positional he clearly values) above a not healthy Tua is probably too much for the Skins to really be in play, they won't be in the market to trade down with anyone else also if that's their thinking.

The Chargers, picking right behind us, have a burning need to replace Rivers and need to bring someone in who can help them sell tickets. The thing that makes me positive here though is that Lynn can probably not afford another season like the last one, they will need to pick a player that can contribute to 2020, going into the new stadium as a losing team isn't going to help in the drive to not be an after thought in that market. They also don't have the draft capital that we do, which means we can outbid anything they offer.

The Bucs. Winston is an FA and not certain of being offered an extension, Arians values QB's who can throw the deep ball well, and Tua is great at that. However they pick even further behind us and again we can outbid them. I still think Arians is on the Winston bus and they do get a deal done, but if they don't I think Love or Herbert are probably more achievable targets they will focus on.

The Raiders, I left them to the end because they are my biggest concern. Chucky hasn't fully endorsed Carr. Carr is an average caliber QB in the NFL, sure you can win with him if you put the pieces around him, just like Tanny, but I think Chucky knows what he has. They have two first rounders, they have amunition right now to move up, we can still outbid whatever they have though. But the reason why they are my biggest concern is that Carr does have trade value, unlike Rivers or Winston (because of his FA) Las Vegas can expect a high draft pick in return, they could for example package something with Detriot to send Carr there along with one of their firsts to move to #3. The counter here is I use Detriot because it was a struggle to find a natural trade partner for them here in the top 4. Detroit may not have a whole lot of interest in this, as it's questionable whether Carr is an upgrade on Stafford. The Giants won't buy that trade because they have their man in Jones, the Skins may have been interested but would lose out on Young if they took it.

Jax can't afford to invest in a QB again right now, the Panthers and Colts have the same problem as the chargers in that although needing a QB, don't have the ammunition to be able to jump us. The Cheats and Saints, have way too far to go. If the Cowboys don't resign Prescott they could be in play but again outbidding us would be difficult and I think it's more likely than not that they do sign Dak. The other teams are unlikly to be in play in my view.

So we may not have to give up anything, however as others said no price is too great to secure your franchise QB, I firmly believe Tua will become that if we pick him. If the FO share that opinion then you do what you have to. I think we can get to 3 with a 2nd and the comp 4th pick, I would do that in a heartbeat right now, we may need to give up more however.
 
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In my attempts to drift off to sleep last night, I had a conversation in my head with myself about who could likely try to jump us, or who could take him ahead of us. The conclusion I came to was that there is no obvious team that either has the ammunition to move up or can afford to take the risk we can on drafting a QB that probably won't play much part in 2020.

Of the teams that worried me most, were:
The Redskins, Rivera has a long leash, he can afford to let a QB sit for a year, he's not invested in Haskins and that organisation may not be either, however the draw to pick Young (the player most anlysts think is the best one in the draft, at a positional he clearly values) above a not healthy Tua is probably too much for the Skins to really be in play, they won't be in the market to trade down with anyone else also if that's their thinking.

The Chargers, picking right behind us, have a burning need to replace Rivers and need to bring someone in who can help them sell tickets. The thing that makes me positive here though is that Lynn can probably not afford another season like the last one, they will need to pick a player that can contribute to 2020, going into the new stadium as a losing team isn't going to help in the drive to not be an after thought in that market. They also don't have the draft capital that we do, which means we can outbid anything they offer.

The Bucs. Winston is an FA and not certain of being offered an extension, Arians values QB's who can throw the deep ball well, and Tua is great at that. However they pick even further behind us and again we can outbid them. I still think Arians is on the Winston bus and they do get a deal done, but if they don't I think Love or Herbert are probably more achievable targets they will focus on.

The Raiders, I left them to the end because they are my biggest concern. Chucky hasn't fully endorsed Carr. Carr is an average caliber QB in the NFL, sure you can win with him if you put the pieces around him, just like Tanny, but I think Chucky knows what he has. They have two first rounders, the have amunition right now to move up, we can still outbid whatever they have though. But the reason why they are my biggest concern is that Carr does have trade value, unlike Rivers or Winston (because of his FA) Las Vegas can expect a high draft pick in return, they could for example package something with Detriot to send Carr there along with one of their firsts to move to #3. The counter here is I use Detriot because it was a struggle to find a natural trade partner for them here in the top 4. Detroit may not have a whole lot of interest in this, as it's questionable whether Carr is an upgrade on Stafford. The Giants won't buy that trade because they have their man in Jones, the Skins may have been interested but would lose out on Young if they took it.

Jax can't afford to invest in a QB again right now, the Panthers and Colts have the same problem as the chargers in that although needing a QB, don't have the ammunition to be able to jump us. The Cheats and Saints, have way too far to go. If the Cowboys don't resign Prescott they could be in play but again outbidding us would be difficult and I think it's more likely than not that they do sign Dak. The other teams are unlikly to be in play in my view.

So we may not have to give up anything, however as others said no price is too great to secure your franchise QB, I firmly believe Tua will become that if we pick him. If the FO share that opinion then you do what you have to. I think we can get to 3 with a 2nd and the comp 4th pick, I would do that in a heartbeat right now, we may need to give up more however.
I think its not out of the question Tua could be cleared to play for training camp... I have no medical background whatsoever but the way Tua spoke at the PC, he didnt rule it out at all.

If medical reports come out that he could play in 2020, its going to be an expensive advanture for the Fins.
 
I think its not out of the question Tua could be cleared to play for training camp... I have no medical background whatsoever but the way Tua spoke at the PC, he didnt rule it out at all.

If medical reports come out that he could play in 2020, its going to be an expensive advanture for the Fins.

It could be considered in our best interests if the medical side of things remains somewhat unclear, to keep the price down, but you are right the market will intensify if there are clear signs of recovery. It the end really that's in our best interest, if that pushes the price up and we have to move up then so be it. The way this declaration has gone down and after listening to the 3ypc guys put 2 and 2 together and come up with 8, I pretty confident Tua won't make it past our pick.
 
A positive medical will be great but as someone mentioned there won’t be a whole lot to work with by draft time. It’s a risky pick might be perfect for the dolphins but to give up a lot for the idea that some other team is going to give up even more to move up seems very unlikely to me considering how fresh and Convoluted his injury is.
 
Detroit prob covets Okudah. All we have to say is if they dont trade with us and trade with someone behind us, we will take Okuda ahead of them. They can still get their guy and pick up an addition 2nd and a late rounder. Of course we can’t do this until draft night because there is no telling what the skins are going to do.
 
Tua is not our guy is my guess...

I see the Dolphins investing in Love at 18 or Fromm in round 2.

I think they look to trade out of 5th overall for a 1 next year and a two this year.

The Dolphins will land a quality veteran in free agency or trade -

Then use draft assets to go after a QB next year if they need to.

Plenty of guys can play well in the NFL if they are put in the right system.
 
Tua is not our guy is my guess...

I see the Dolphins investing in Love at 18 or Fromm in round 2.

I think they look to trade out of 5th overall for a 1 next year and a two this year.

The Dolphins will land a quality veteran in free agency or trade -

Then use draft assets to go after a QB next year if they need to.

Plenty of guys can play well in the NFL if they are put in the right system.
This wouldn’t surprise me but to be honest there poker face has been pretty good and I’m not sure what they’re thinking.
 
I wouldn’t give up any more than the 5 and a 2nd. I’m not giving up the equivalent of Laremy Tunsil, an elite LT, and more, to move up two spots.
 
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