Perfect72
It's Only Happened ONCE!
The odds are there to be beat. The predictive site FiveThirtyEight sets the Dolphins’ playoff odds at 27 percent. Football Outsiders puts it at 33 percent. Those numbers are based on cold, hard, quantative results, too, and don’t even factor in Ryan Tannehill’s injury.
So given that backstory, let’s add some longer odds. Just for fun, let’s show how they can make the playoffs before the season finale against New England. The Sun-Sentinel’s Steve Svekis compiled a small checklist (or not so small) of what needs to happen the next two weeks for the Dolphins to be in the playoffs.
Because while the odds of this happening are long, each individual game should be predicted to happen except probably one – the Dolphins at Buffalo. And that has to happen for the Dolphins to make the playoffs at all. That game, for me, will be the biggest predictor of the Dolphins' playoff chances among their remaining games. (The Jets game won’t be the gimme the records suggest, either. Five-thirty-eight puts that at only a 51 percent chance for a Dolphins win).
So here's the laundry list of results for the Dolphins to get in before the finale:
This Week:
* Dolphins beat Jets
* Pittsburgh wins at Cincinnati OR Philadelphia beats Baltimore
* New England wins at Denver.
* Kansas City beats Tennessee.
More at LINK: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...aveHyde-blog+(Dave+Hyde+|+Sun+Sentinel+blogs)
Another LINK:http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article120625148.html
While Miami is currently tied with Denver for the AFC’s sixth and final Wild Card spot at 8-5, the Dolphins do not control their own destiny.
Yes, they could finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs.
In fairness, they could also finish 9-7 and make the playoffs, although neither scenario is particularly likely.
But this is entirely plausible: The Dolphins finish 10-6 and end up on the outside of the dance looking in.
That’s because the Dolphins lose most every tiebreaker involving the Broncos, even if the Steelers surrender the AFC North crown to Baltimore and also go 10-6.
Here’s the math:
If Pittsburgh, Denver and Miami finish tied at 10-6, the Steelers would get in because of their commanding lead in conference record. The Steelers would finish at 8-4 in the AFC and a game clear of both the Dolphins and Broncos if all go 10-6.
And if it’s Denver alone with Miami at 10-6, the Broncos would go because they have a huge cushion in strength of victory. (The Broncos and Dolphins haven’t played this year, so there is no head-to-head.)
This is where the Dolphins’ soft schedule hurts them.
Put simply, they have beaten some awful teams. The Dolphins have just one win against a club with a winning record (the Steelers, who are 8-5). They have beaten winless Cleveland and 1-12 San Francisco.
Put it together, and Miami has a ghastly strength of victory percentage of .322, fourth-worst in the AFC.
The Broncos’: .418.
Denver also has the Dolphins in checkmate in common opponents, which is a more important tiebreaker than strength of victory. If both teams win out to get to 11-5, the Broncos will have the edge 3-2 to 2-3 and get that final Wild Card spot.
But even if Denver loses to New England, the Dolphins beat the Patriots and both teams go 10-6, they would be tied at 2-3 in common opponents. That’s where strength of victory comes in.
Tiebreakers at 9-7 are even worse for the Dolphins, as the Titans and Ravens could enter the equation then. Both teams own head-to-head wins over Miami.
So what is Miami’s path the postseason?
It’s fairly straight-forward: Finish a game ahead of Denver.
The Dolphins either need to win out and have the Broncos lose once or go 2-1 and have the Broncos lose two of three games down the stretch. If that happens, the Dolphins will get in, regardless of what else transpires.
So given that backstory, let’s add some longer odds. Just for fun, let’s show how they can make the playoffs before the season finale against New England. The Sun-Sentinel’s Steve Svekis compiled a small checklist (or not so small) of what needs to happen the next two weeks for the Dolphins to be in the playoffs.
Because while the odds of this happening are long, each individual game should be predicted to happen except probably one – the Dolphins at Buffalo. And that has to happen for the Dolphins to make the playoffs at all. That game, for me, will be the biggest predictor of the Dolphins' playoff chances among their remaining games. (The Jets game won’t be the gimme the records suggest, either. Five-thirty-eight puts that at only a 51 percent chance for a Dolphins win).
So here's the laundry list of results for the Dolphins to get in before the finale:
This Week:
* Dolphins beat Jets
* Pittsburgh wins at Cincinnati OR Philadelphia beats Baltimore
* New England wins at Denver.
* Kansas City beats Tennessee.
More at LINK: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...aveHyde-blog+(Dave+Hyde+|+Sun+Sentinel+blogs)
Another LINK:http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article120625148.html
While Miami is currently tied with Denver for the AFC’s sixth and final Wild Card spot at 8-5, the Dolphins do not control their own destiny.
Yes, they could finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs.
In fairness, they could also finish 9-7 and make the playoffs, although neither scenario is particularly likely.
But this is entirely plausible: The Dolphins finish 10-6 and end up on the outside of the dance looking in.
That’s because the Dolphins lose most every tiebreaker involving the Broncos, even if the Steelers surrender the AFC North crown to Baltimore and also go 10-6.
Here’s the math:
If Pittsburgh, Denver and Miami finish tied at 10-6, the Steelers would get in because of their commanding lead in conference record. The Steelers would finish at 8-4 in the AFC and a game clear of both the Dolphins and Broncos if all go 10-6.
And if it’s Denver alone with Miami at 10-6, the Broncos would go because they have a huge cushion in strength of victory. (The Broncos and Dolphins haven’t played this year, so there is no head-to-head.)
This is where the Dolphins’ soft schedule hurts them.
Put simply, they have beaten some awful teams. The Dolphins have just one win against a club with a winning record (the Steelers, who are 8-5). They have beaten winless Cleveland and 1-12 San Francisco.
Put it together, and Miami has a ghastly strength of victory percentage of .322, fourth-worst in the AFC.
The Broncos’: .418.
Denver also has the Dolphins in checkmate in common opponents, which is a more important tiebreaker than strength of victory. If both teams win out to get to 11-5, the Broncos will have the edge 3-2 to 2-3 and get that final Wild Card spot.
But even if Denver loses to New England, the Dolphins beat the Patriots and both teams go 10-6, they would be tied at 2-3 in common opponents. That’s where strength of victory comes in.
Tiebreakers at 9-7 are even worse for the Dolphins, as the Titans and Ravens could enter the equation then. Both teams own head-to-head wins over Miami.
So what is Miami’s path the postseason?
It’s fairly straight-forward: Finish a game ahead of Denver.
The Dolphins either need to win out and have the Broncos lose once or go 2-1 and have the Broncos lose two of three games down the stretch. If that happens, the Dolphins will get in, regardless of what else transpires.
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