If these trends aren't disturbing enough, perhaps the fact that Philbin will be only the 34th coach in football history - out of 477 - to earn a 4th year on the sidelines following 3 non-winning seasons is indicative in and of itself of the rarity of his opportunity. Based on the history of the Big 32, there is a 28 percent chance that next year will be Philbin's last as Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins. In other words, there is a 28 percent chance that in 2015 the Dolphins will again fail to win more games than they lose and again manage to avoid an ever-elusive playoff win. While the numbers associated with the Big 32 suggest the Dolphins actually have a more optimistic 38 percent chance at a winning season next year, we must not forget - these are the Dolphins we're talking about. So you can probably bank on that chance being closer to 28 percent and Ross realizing he needs to tack another year onto his bulletin board of wasted seasons.
What we do know is that if Joe Philbin does well enough to earn an extension following next season, history still shows that coaches in a similar position do no better than achieving one playoff win every four years. Hardly Harbaugh-ish numbers.
Since only three previous coaches in history -- out of the 32 who experienced non-winning seasons in their first three years -- managed to win the big one, Joe Philbin's chances of pulling off that which every sports franchise aspires to when they first invest in a head coach, are 9.38 percent. All three coaches are enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Barring a miraculous formation of an NFL dynasty, Joe Philbin has an improbable road ahead of him and faces insurmountable odds at matching up. Also, we mustn't forget, these are still the Dolphins we're talking about.
It's up to you to determine whether that hope is more or less a reality than what the numbers suggest.
Good luck Dolfans.
