So now that I've laid out my plan for the Dolphins this off-season
here, the heavyweight question is how realistic is it for the Dolphins to land the centerpiece of it in free-agent defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh?
There are two linked components to this: How much will he cost and how many teams will be after him?
The two contracts that should bracket Suh are those of Gerald McCoy and J.J. Watt. Each re-signed with their team without hitting the open market, so it's not a exact situation. But they're elite defensive linemen getting contracts at this time.
McCoy signed a seven-year, $95.2 million contract with Tampa Bay with $32.25 guaranteed. You can play without the annual numbers. It averages $13.6 million. After a $21 million salary-cap hit last season, it drops to $14.6 million in 2015 and then down to as low as $13 million.
JJ Watt is the defensive MVP and signed for more. He got a six-year, $100 million contract extension with $51.1 million effectively guaranteed. That's a straight average of $16.7 million. After a cap number of $21 million in 2015, it goes to between $12.5 and $13 million the next four years.
So? So Suh will ask for Watt money. Maybe one team gives it to him, which is the benefit of hitting the open free agent market. The more practical idea is he falls somewhere between McCoy ($13.6 million a year) and Watt ($16.7 million).
Can the Dolphins afford that? Well, to bring back Randy Starks and Jared Odrick would cost about $13 million (assuming Odrick goes for $7 million in free agency). Starks has a $5 million salary-cap hit. Odrick's would depend on the contract structure. Earl Mitchell also is a $4.5 million cap hit. Do you use two of their salaries to get Suh, the best tackle in the game? I do.
Next question: How many teams will chase him? As many as 10 teams, reports say.Let's go through some. Cleveland, Jacksonville and Oakland have the most free-agent money. New Oakland coach Jack Del Rio, who came from Denver, is expected to sign Denver defensive tackle Terrance Knighton. Cleveland is full of serious problems. Jacksonville?
The New York Jets would be a landing spot, as they have money, except defensive tackle is a strength. The Giants have Jason Paul-Pierre as a free agent, and the question becomes where they put their money.
Chicago and Washington need defensive help and can spend. Indianapolis and Atlanta are two teams ready to win with defensive help. Detroit, too, will be in the mix, though it says it won't put a cap-busting franchise tag of $26.7 million on him.
Finally, there's Suh's on-field behavioral issues. He nearly was suspended for the Lions' playoff game for stepping on Aaron Rodgers' hand. He's a favorite in the dirtiest-player polls. Would Joe Philbin sign on with that? I think he would in this case. No off-field issues accompany Suh, as far as anyone knows.
With so many teams and so much money involved, the odds aren't with the Dolphins. But I'm adopting Pat Riley's philosophy here. Think big.