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Hyde5: Dolphins 2nd best in NFL? A respected analytic site says so

So what this is saying.. on paper and on the field, we have some pretty damn good talent.. but its the coaching and game plans that are screwing us up??
 
I guarantee that ranking will change quite a bit over the next 4 weeks.

Outside of the QB I do believe we have a top team in the NFL though, and the times we do happen to get a great performance from Tannehill we are a top 5 team in the league. In other words, if Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck were our QBs we'd be winning 13 or 14 games a season.
 
Speaking of which, another analytics site, FO, has us tied at 9th (with San Diego) broken down like this: 12th on offense, 4th on defense, and 32nd on special teams. SD is 3rd on offense, 27th on defense and 14th on special teams.
 
So what this is saying.. on paper and on the field, we have some pretty damn good talent.. but its the coaching and game plans that are screwing us up??

I think the margin of victory in our wins and the fact that we're ranked so high in a lot of categories, like being first in a few defensive categories is the reason we're high on this list. And even in the wins we are still leaving a lot of points on the field, like at Jax that should have been bigger if not for the pick in the endzone. And we pulled our starters on defense when they got their garbage TD.

The bottom line is winning by big margins is a sign of a good team. The one area our team is not a top unit is in the passing game, in fact, our offense is 6th worst in NY/A, is that the fault of coaching or the passer?
 
You say top 5? Far out, man. Pass me the bong.

Love the Dolphins and I hope they prove this to be true.
 
So ... that leaves the passing game. And there's where the Dolphins don't stack up. THey rank fourth-worst at 6.6 yards per attempt.

"My system likes the Dolphins because teams can’t move the ball on them,'' Burke said. "They’re going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of people And their passing efficiency on offense is pretty low - they've had some struggles on offense. They're not going to necessarily be average, but maybe they don't need to be."

Burke said the Dolphins' strengths of defense and running the ball is, "kind of a Rex Ryan format of a team. Teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh built teams around that format for a decade."

The issue with the Dolphins, Burke says, is a schedule that grows tougher for the next month with San Diego, Buffalo, Detroit and Denver.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...nks-dolphins-as-no-2-team-20141029-story.html
 
Speaking of which, another analytics site, FO, has us tied at 9th (with San Diego) broken down like this: 12th on offense, 4th on defense, and 32nd on special teams. SD is 3rd on offense, 27th on defense and 14th on special teams.

32nd on special teams with top 5KR and how many blocked punts/kicks? I get Fields has been off but not so bad to put us at last. Sturgis has been bad too, yet I can't see those dropping us that low. Maybe 20th in terms of all specials teams.
 
32nd on special teams with top 5KR and how many blocked punts/kicks? I get Fields has been off but not so bad to put us at last. Sturgis has been bad too, yet I can't see those dropping us that low. Maybe 20th in terms of all specials teams.

I don't know and I would like to find out (edit: so I did, see below). But Sturgis and Fields have been terrible, and for half the season Sturgis was also terrible on kickoffs we're still ranked extremely low overall on that category. I think the coverage teams have been better recently but early on the year we allowed a lot of return yardage, we've had fumbles... remember the Buffalo game? That was a special teams disaster.

Looking at FOs breakdowns, FO thinks we've benefited from things beyond our control to look better than we are (they call it "hidden" special teams). My guess is blocks go in that category as they are non-predictive -basically chance. It doesn't matter how many you have now, that doesn't increase your chance of having another in the future. Fumbles (forced or own) are part of the ranking, but not fumbles recovered, which goes in the hidden category. We are 5th in hidden special teams, but that would not reflect on our ranking, only in how we look because of stuff such as opponents kickoffs, FGs and punts.

Hope that makes sense. To summarize, FOs numbers give us credit for being very good at kick returns (and coverage) but suck at FGs, kickoffs, punt returns and coverage, while benefiting from luck, weather and/or opponents suckiness.

My own analysis of the numbers is that Sturgis is much better at kicking off than the numbers give him credit for, but he was injured. His FGs... I'm not sure I'm as optimistic. Now Fields, come on, he was so good in the past! But he's been bad and it's a coin toss whether he'll bounce back this year. Our punt return coverage also seems to have improved since the early season disaster. All in all I think you may be right, maybe we are around 20th, but the beauty (and ugliness) of the numbers is they show what has been, not what is or will be.
 
ok got it. Very interesting. It completely debunks the article in another thread about how our record is deceiving due to the losing record of our opposition.

Actually, not really. If you read the analyst's quote, he does say that he expects the Dolphins to decline as the schedule gets tougher. And the other distressing thing is that the passing offense is ranked fourth worst in his system.
 
Actually, not really. If you read the analyst's quote, he does say that he expects the Dolphins to decline as the schedule gets tougher. And the other distressing thing is that the passing offense is ranked fourth worst in his system.

Bad passing offense about to face three of the best passing defenses....

...we'll see.
 
Bad passing offense about to face three of the best passing defenses....

...we'll see.

Yeah, what he says is that we're very effective on defense against the run, very good on offense running the ball (to be fair, Tannehill comes into the equation there), and good against the pass. The schedule to date probably has inflated the pass defense, since we've had 3 games against awful passing offenses, Jax, Oakland and Buffalo, and played at home against New England before they seemed to have put it together. I think though that the running game on offense and defense is pretty sustainable.

As the article notes, the good news is that this kind of formula can be successful as it has in the past five or so years at various times for the Jets and the Ravens.
 
Bad passing offense about to face three of the best passing defenses....

...we'll see.

I wouldn't consider the Charger one of the best passing defenses. While they are 3rd best at YPA allowed they are also 23rd best at allowing Passer rating.
They allow opposing QB's a 94.5 passer rating by allowing 14 TD's while only getting 4 Interceptions. They also have ups and downs in their passing yards allowed.
3 games with almost 300 yards passing allowed and then several other with shutdown games. (60, 180) They are inconsistent.

I would rank our pass defense better than them.

Now Detroit and Buffalo are definitely top pass defenses. But Buffalo has also had some games where they got smoked pretty good on the pass. Both Chicago and NE hit them up for more than 300 yards. Just got to block their DL and we have a chance to move them down in the standings.
 
I wouldn't consider the Charger one of the best passing defenses. While they are 3rd best at YPA allowed they are also 23rd best at allowing Passer rating.
They allow opposing QB's a 94.5 passer rating by allowing 14 TD's while only getting 4 Interceptions. They also have ups and downs in their passing yards allowed.
3 games with almost 300 yards passing allowed and then several other with shutdown games. (60, 180) They are inconsistent.

I would rank our pass defense better than them.

Now Detroit and Buffalo are definitely top pass defenses. But Buffalo has also had some games where they got smoked pretty good on the pass. Both Chicago and NE hit them up for more than 300 yards. Just got to block their DL and we have a chance to move them down in the standings.

I wasn't talking about the Chargers, the Chargers are pretty weak against the pass. I was talking about Detroit, Buffalo and Denver who are all ranked top 5 against the pass.
 
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