I would like to hear more opinions of CK and Boomer about our draft plans.

[Ludacris]

One thing I dont' really see being discussed about Matt Ryan is his out pattern throws. It takes a strong arm to throw a quick out or a deep out to the long side of the field because a quick and fast CB can jump those routes. Furthermore, it requires both vision and accuracy to pull the trigger on those throws and, more importantly, to know when not to pull the trigger on those throws. Now Ryan's receivers weren't exactly world-beaters, so they didn't have the physical ability to consistently get open for those throws. Most of the times he threw it his receiver was either well open or facing a CB that couldn't take advantage of jumping the route.

Now in Miami with a super-fast Ginn starting to become a top receiver, and it's a fair guess that we'll also be adding more receivers via FA and the draft over the next 2 offseasons, I think the Dolphins QB needs to have the ability to consistently make those throws, both the quick out and the deep out. I'm not saying Ryan cannot do it, I'm just saying that I'm not totally convinced about it. He is definitely more accurate throwing straight ahead than judging crossing patterns, so I wonder how he's going to do with true speed freaks like Ginn? He's accurate, but he sometimes throws near-misses that end up being caught because of receiver adjustments rather than perfect throws into a safe-window that require receiver adjustments. In the NFL, the CB play is lethal. Some have hands of stone, but they all have athleticism and are extremely good at analyzing routes.

A guy like Ginn is going to get a big cushion because people fear his deep speed, so he's going to be open a lot on the quick outs once he hones his route running. He's going to see a lot of double-coverage (much of it zonal) for the deep outs. Ryan is going to need to hone his ability to hit the fast receiver in a position where it's not interceptable yet still catchable at the sidelines. I think he can do it, but it's not his strength IMHO. Much like Flacco, he's best hitting a target moving vertically (either towards him or away from him) and less stellar hitting a target moving laterally (at a right angle to him). Furthermore, timing patterns with fast receivers are going to demand that he get that right. So, I'm not prepared to anoint him the 2nd coming of Drew Bledsoe just yet ... and some of the comparisons made by his many fans are just silly. Ryan will never be a Marino--nor will anyone else--or a John Elway, nor a Jim Kelly IMHO, so right there let's be clear, he doesn't have Peyton Manning potential, and at best he might become an Eli Manning, though I don't expect it to happen.

This is one of those years I really wish both Ryan and Brohm had been in the Senior Bowl so we could see how A) Ryan does with top class WR talent running laterally, and B) how Brohm deals with a new system and teammates. I was quite disappointed to see Ryan skip the Senior Bowl, but even less impressed with Brohm's decision to follow suit.

Much of the reason we're hearing all this hype about Henne, Flacco, etc. is because they had the chance to show their stuff as the A team without being overshadowed in the media's eyes by the top rated prospects. Now the top rated guy on many QB lists, Ryan, is being automatically thrown up there with previous top rated QB prospects based solely on a great collegiate career and good height. That kinda scares me.

Marino was a freak of nature, tremendous arm, fantastic accuracy, world-class read-and-react skills, exceptional vision, ultra-quick release, and a born leader. His problem was his ego got the best of him as a senior and he forced way too many throws. He recognized double teams, etc., but he threw the ball anyway because he believed he was good enough to beat any coverage at any time. All Shula had to do was reel him back in a bit and explain when not to make those foolish throws, because deep down inside Marino already knew it was a bad choice on those throws.

With Ryan, I don't see that kind of arm or any of the other skills. I see a good read-and-react guy with good accuracy and an exceptional knowledge of his adversaries weaknesses and enough ability to exploit that. I see a born leader who wills his team to win, but not someone with surgical precision. I wonder how he'll do when the NFL window is very small and the 2.4 seconds of protection gives him precious little time to make a decision and get the ball away?

On the plus side I see the current administration securing a lot of big targets to greatlly increase the size of his window, and a lot fewer intermediate routes being called. The short routes underneath to big targets will be fine. The deep routes he's really good at, and with less intermediate routes being called (like deep outs), hopefully that minimizes his interception exposure. But still, I wish there were a QB available that didn't have as many of those types of questions.

Excellent post. What you say is very true. You don't see a lot of the intermediate out patterns being thrown to. This could be either because of the plays called or the WR just can't get seperation. I did however see Ryan throw may be a hand full of intermediate out patterns and intermediate comebacks routes and those were accurate. He can anticipate those routes before the WR breaks out of the pattern and then puts zip on those passes. He doesn't have a cannon of an arm but the passes get there quick enough and on target. I am pretty confident it can beat an NFL CB jumping on the ball - but that's my projection. Ginn is a speedster who, should by the time the season starts, can get out of breaks and gain a lot of seperation. I can see Ryan's throws getting there on time. That would be exciting to watch if it happens.

In the NFL he will have a lot less time to throw. But what i like about Ryan is his thought process. He wastes little time reading and reacting. Like what adam said, his ability to make pre-snap reads will help him with buying him more time in making decisions and throws.

He's no Marino or Elway but he is the kind of QB you can build a team around.

 

[jim1]

One thing I dont' really see being discussed about Matt Ryan is his out pattern throws. It takes a strong arm to throw a quick out or a deep out to the long side of the field because a quick and fast CB can jump those routes. Furthermore, it requires both vision and accuracy to pull the trigger on those throws and, more importantly, to know when not to pull the trigger on those throws. Now Ryan's receivers weren't exactly world-beaters, so they didn't have the physical ability to consistently get open for those throws. Most of the times he threw it his receiver was either well open or facing a CB that couldn't take advantage of jumping the route.

Now in Miami with a super-fast Ginn starting to become a top receiver, and it's a fair guess that we'll also be adding more receivers via FA and the draft over the next 2 offseasons, I think the Dolphins QB needs to have the ability to consistently make those throws, both the quick out and the deep out. I'm not saying Ryan cannot do it, I'm just saying that I'm not totally convinced about it. He is definitely more accurate throwing straight ahead than judging crossing patterns, so I wonder how he's going to do with true speed freaks like Ginn? He's accurate, but he sometimes throws near-misses that end up being caught because of receiver adjustments rather than perfect throws into a safe-window that require receiver adjustments. In the NFL, the CB play is lethal. Some have hands of stone, but they all have athleticism and are extremely good at analyzing routes.

A guy like Ginn is going to get a big cushion because people fear his deep speed, so he's going to be open a lot on the quick outs once he hones his route running. He's going to see a lot of double-coverage (much of it zonal) for the deep outs. Ryan is going to need to hone his ability to hit the fast receiver in a position where it's not interceptable yet still catchable at the sidelines. I think he can do it, but it's not his strength IMHO. Much like Flacco, he's best hitting a target moving vertically (either towards him or away from him) and less stellar hitting a target moving laterally (at a right angle to him). Furthermore, timing patterns with fast receivers are going to demand that he get that right. So, I'm not prepared to anoint him the 2nd coming of Drew Bledsoe just yet ... and some of the comparisons made by his many fans are just silly. Ryan will never be a Marino--nor will anyone else--or a John Elway, nor a Jim Kelly IMHO, so right there let's be clear, he doesn't have Peyton Manning potential, and at best he might become an Eli Manning, though I don't expect it to happen.

This is one of those years I really wish both Ryan and Brohm had been in the Senior Bowl so we could see how A) Ryan does with top class WR talent running laterally, and B) how Brohm deals with a new system and teammates. I was quite disappointed to see Ryan skip the Senior Bowl, but even less impressed with Brohm's decision to follow suit.

Much of the reason we're hearing all this hype about Henne, Flacco, etc. is because they had the chance to show their stuff as the A team without being overshadowed in the media's eyes by the top rated prospects. Now the top rated guy on many QB lists, Ryan, is being automatically thrown up there with previous top rated QB prospects based solely on a great collegiate career and good height. That kinda scares me.

Marino was a freak of nature, tremendous arm, fantastic accuracy, world-class read-and-react skills, exceptional vision, ultra-quick release, and a born leader. His problem was his ego got the best of him as a senior and he forced way too many throws. He recognized double teams, etc., but he threw the ball anyway because he believed he was good enough to beat any coverage at any time. All Shula had to do was reel him back in a bit and explain when not to make those foolish throws, because deep down inside Marino already knew it was a bad choice on those throws.

With Ryan, I don't see that kind of arm or any of the other skills. I see a good read-and-react guy with good accuracy and an exceptional knowledge of his adversaries weaknesses and enough ability to exploit that. I see a born leader who wills his team to win, but not someone with surgical precision. I wonder how he'll do when the NFL window is very small and the 2.4 seconds of protection gives him precious little time to make a decision and get the ball away?

On the plus side I see the current administration securing a lot of big targets to greatlly increase the size of his window, and a lot fewer intermediate routes being called. The short routes underneath to big targets will be fine. The deep routes he's really good at, and with less intermediate routes being called (like deep outs), hopefully that minimizes his interception exposure. But still, I wish there were a QB available that didn't have as many of those types of questions.

If you want to see a QB make those kind of throws on a pro level with a true pro caliber arm, watch some game film of Chad Henne, particularly in the game against Illinois last year. He has that talent in spades.

 

[ckparrothead]

Matt Ryan does make risky throws. His problem is he catches fire and then thinks he can make every throw, and yes it does lead to interceptions and incompletions, sometimes sacks.

One thing people like about him is he seems to have a sense of knowing when during the game to "turn it on". One thing people don't like about him is once he does turn it on and enjoy some success, he makes some geeked up throws that are real head scratchers.

As I watch that Boston College offense, Purvis and Callendar were really the only things they had going for them. They couldn't challenge anyone deep, just horizontally with Callendar being covered by a linebacker. Combine that with a ground game that is easy to stop, if you only try, and it was a pretty bad supporting cast for Matt Ryan. You're not going to see a whole lot of intermediate comebacks and intermediate out patterns if defenses aren't scared of the deep ball even a little bit. Corners playing zone will sit on those routes and pick them off. When defensive backs are doing that, there is literally no possible way to throw the ball that does not risk interception on a timing pattern like that. The only way to avoid risking an interception is simply not to throw that ball.

It's amazing when you watch a game and you see an offense throwing the deep vertical not because they think their receivers can get open and catch the thing, but really just because your QB has a good deep arm, good deep touch and accuracy, and you'll settle for the defense thinking about the deep vertical even if it isn't complete.

Matt Ryan suffered through a lot of drops at Boston College, too. Way more than his share. When you're throwing to guys that don't get separation (and at Boston College, they didn't), you've got to throw it to spots that are more difficult to catch just so that you don't get picked off. John Beck was able to get away with a lot of high floaters at BYU that Matt Ryan couldn't get away with at Boston College.

I don't see what is so controversial about calling him a taller, younger version of John Beck. That's pretty much how most of the scouting world thinks of him.

And btw, I don't think the cutoff for marginal returns on height stops at 6'2" by any means. More like 6'4" or 6'5". Really, 6'2" is considered more like a bare minimum. That doesn't mean most scouts would consider 6'2" and 6'4" guys to be equals.

 

[BlueFin]

Matt Ryan does make risky throws. His problem is he catches fire and then thinks he can make every throw, and yes it does lead to interceptions and incompletions, sometimes sacks.

One thing people like about him is he seems to have a sense of knowing when during the game to "turn it on". One thing people don't like about him is once he does turn it on and enjoy some success, he makes some geeked up throws that are real head scratchers.

As I watch that Boston College offense, Purvis and Callendar were really the only things they had going for them. They couldn't challenge anyone deep, just horizontally with Callendar being covered by a linebacker. Combine that with a ground game that is easy to stop, if you only try, and it was a pretty bad supporting cast for Matt Ryan. You're not going to see a whole lot of intermediate comebacks and intermediate out patterns if defenses aren't scared of the deep ball even a little bit. Corners playing zone will sit on those routes and pick them off. When defensive backs are doing that, there is literally no possible way to throw the ball that does not risk interception on a timing pattern like that. The only way to avoid risking an interception is simply not to throw that ball.

It's amazing when you watch a game and you see an offense throwing the deep vertical not because they think their receivers can get open and catch the thing, but really just because your QB has a good deep arm, good deep touch and accuracy, and you'll settle for the defense thinking about the deep vertical even if it isn't complete.

Matt Ryan suffered through a lot of drops at Boston College, too. Way more than his share. When you're throwing to guys that don't get separation (and at Boston College, they didn't), you've got to throw it to spots that are more difficult to catch just so that you don't get picked off. John Beck was able to get away with a lot of high floaters at BYU that Matt Ryan couldn't get away with at Boston College.

I don't see what is so controversial about calling him a taller, younger version of John Beck. That's pretty much how most of the scouting world thinks of him.

And btw, I don't think the cutoff for marginal returns on height stops at 6'2" by any means. More like 6'4" or 6'5". Really, 6'2" is considered more like a bare minimum. That doesn't mean most scouts would consider 6'2" and 6'4" guys to be equals.

Not that I'm suggesting they are similar, but Marino could be very streaky at times during his career. (of course, one streak lasted the entire 1984 season).

I do think its more than fair to assess the caliber of talent a QB is surrounded with when assessing his numbers and success.

I also agree that as the years go by, the minimum height (so to speak) of a quarterback has kind of risen from about 6'0" to about 6'2" now, with 6'4" or 6"5" being the ideal.

Its just clearly an advantage for a quarterbacks vision and even regarding having a higher release point in dealing with the taller and more athletic Front sevens they are now facing.

I am a John Beck fan, and yet I acknowledge that he gets a fair amount of passes knocked down. ( Not sure if its above average or not?)

 

[Mike13]

I don't see what is so controversial about calling him a taller, younger version of John Beck. That's pretty much how most of the scouting world thinks of him.

Doesnt Beck have better arm strength though?

 

[Fullerboy]

Matt Ryan does make risky throws. His problem is he catches fire and then thinks he can make every throw, and yes it does lead to interceptions and incompletions, sometimes sacks.

One thing people like about him is he seems to have a sense of knowing when during the game to "turn it on". One thing people don't like about him is once he does turn it on and enjoy some success, he makes some geeked up throws that are real head scratchers.

As I watch that Boston College offense, Purvis and Callendar were really the only things they had going for them. They couldn't challenge anyone deep, just horizontally with Callendar being covered by a linebacker. Combine that with a ground game that is easy to stop, if you only try, and it was a pretty bad supporting cast for Matt Ryan. You're not going to see a whole lot of intermediate comebacks and intermediate out patterns if defenses aren't scared of the deep ball even a little bit. Corners playing zone will sit on those routes and pick them off. When defensive backs are doing that, there is literally no possible way to throw the ball that does not risk interception on a timing pattern like that. The only way to avoid risking an interception is simply not to throw that ball.

It's amazing when you watch a game and you see an offense throwing the deep vertical not because they think their receivers can get open and catch the thing, but really just because your QB has a good deep arm, good deep touch and accuracy, and you'll settle for the defense thinking about the deep vertical even if it isn't complete.

Matt Ryan suffered through a lot of drops at Boston College, too. Way more than his share. When you're throwing to guys that don't get separation (and at Boston College, they didn't), you've got to throw it to spots that are more difficult to catch just so that you don't get picked off. John Beck was able to get away with a lot of high floaters at BYU that Matt Ryan couldn't get away with at Boston College.

I don't see what is so controversial about calling him a taller, younger version of John Beck. That's pretty much how most of the scouting world thinks of him.

And btw, I don't think the cutoff for marginal returns on height stops at 6'2" by any means. More like 6'4" or 6'5". Really, 6'2" is considered more like a bare minimum. That doesn't mean most scouts would consider 6'2" and 6'4" guys to be equals.

Thanks CK, I thought you and Boomer abandon this thead, its nice to know you guys are still posting.:)

 

[adamprez2003]

Matt Ryan does make risky throws. His problem is he catches fire and then thinks he can make every throw, and yes it does lead to interceptions and incompletions, sometimes sacks.

One thing people like about him is he seems to have a sense of knowing when during the game to "turn it on". One thing people don't like about him is once he does turn it on and enjoy some success, he makes some geeked up throws that are real head scratchers.

As I watch that Boston College offense, Purvis and Callendar were really the only things they had going for them. They couldn't challenge anyone deep, just horizontally with Callendar being covered by a linebacker. Combine that with a ground game that is easy to stop, if you only try, and it was a pretty bad supporting cast for Matt Ryan. You're not going to see a whole lot of intermediate comebacks and intermediate out patterns if defenses aren't scared of the deep ball even a little bit. Corners playing zone will sit on those routes and pick them off. When defensive backs are doing that, there is literally no possible way to throw the ball that does not risk interception on a timing pattern like that. The only way to avoid risking an interception is simply not to throw that ball.

It's amazing when you watch a game and you see an offense throwing the deep vertical not because they think their receivers can get open and catch the thing, but really just because your QB has a good deep arm, good deep touch and accuracy, and you'll settle for the defense thinking about the deep vertical even if it isn't complete.

Matt Ryan suffered through a lot of drops at Boston College, too. Way more than his share. When you're throwing to guys that don't get separation (and at Boston College, they didn't), you've got to throw it to spots that are more difficult to catch just so that you don't get picked off. John Beck was able to get away with a lot of high floaters at BYU that Matt Ryan couldn't get away with at Boston College.

I don't see what is so controversial about calling him a taller, younger version of John Beck. That's pretty much how most of the scouting world thinks of him.

And btw, I don't think the cutoff for marginal returns on height stops at 6'2" by any means. More like 6'4" or 6'5". Really, 6'2" is considered more like a bare minimum. That doesn't mean most scouts would consider 6'2" and 6'4" guys to be equals.

Interesting. I hadnt really thought about the point you make about him getting geeked when he has success but you may be right on that. Let me ask you. I saw about seven of his games and it seemed to me that about half of the interceptions were due either to game circumstance(needing to make a play) or the receiver messing up which if extrapolated would be about 9 or 10 which is less than one a game. Is that what you've seen?

Personally, I dont mind overconfidence in a college QB. I always felt its easier to reign a QB in then to have to do the opposite and try to get him to take more chances (Harrington). Now in the pros I dont want my QB to be overconfident but I do want him to be slightly ****y. Just enough to give him the fire but not enough to burn him

 

[ckparrothead]

Doesnt Beck have better arm strength though?

No. They both have 70 yard arms. Many will swear Ryan's arm is stronger based on the games but that is just because Beck threw mostly with touch his senior season and not a whole lot of deep balls.

Matt Ryan does have a very strong arm. I don't know where anyone would get off saying he has a weak arm. It just isn't true. He makes cross-body throws at times that are Elway-esque. He also throws some whistlers across the entire field on out patterns that get there in a real hurry. And, his deep ball is Tom Brady through and through.

 

[ckparrothead]

Interesting. I hadnt really thought about the point you make about him getting geeked when he has success but you may be right on that. Let me ask you. I saw about seven of his games and it seemed to me that about half of the interceptions were due either to game circumstance(needing to make a play) or the receiver messing up which if extrapolated would be about 9 or 10 which is less than one a game. Is that what you've seen?

Personally, I dont mind overconfidence in a college QB. I always felt its easier to reign a QB in then to have to do the opposite and try to get him to take more chances (Harrington). Now in the pros I dont want my QB to be overconfident but I do want him to be slightly ****y. Just enough to give him the fire but not enough to burn him

That hasn't really been my experience. In my experience, he "earned" his interceptions about as much as a normal quarterback would. But the thing to keep in mind is his interception percentage, at 2.9%, isn't as horrible as some would like to imply. I also find it can be easier to rein in a guy than to teach a safe guy to make plays. It's all about what throws you're comfortable making on a regular basis. John Beck is quite comfortable making deep intermediate throws that we haven't seen around Miami in a while. He'll push that ball to that area because it's part of his repertoire. Matt Ryan has that as well. Matt Ryan may have better deep accuracy. May. I'm not completely sure. John Beck hasn't barely thrown a deep ball since 2004.

 

[adamprez2003]

That hasn't really been my experience. In my experience, he "earned" his interceptions about as much as a normal quarterback would. But the thing to keep in mind is his interception percentage, at 2.9%, isn't as horrible as some would like to imply. I also find it can be easier to rein in a guy than to teach a safe guy to make plays. It's all about what throws you're comfortable making on a regular basis. John Beck is quite comfortable making deep intermediate throws that we haven't seen around Miami in a while. He'll push that ball to that area because it's part of his repertoire. Matt Ryan has that as well. Matt Ryan may have better deep accuracy. May. I'm not completely sure. John Beck hasn't barely thrown a deep ball since 2004.

Thx for the feedback. I really like Becks accuracy on short and intermediate throws when he gets to set his feet. I'm hoping to see him throw it deep a little more this year because if he can do it effectively then he's got the whole field covered and the defenses will be forced to play him honest. That should be enough to make him a decent to good starter. If he can add in consistent accuracy while on the move then he'll be a good to very good starter

 

[fishypete]

No. They both have 70 yard arms. Many will swear Ryan's arm is stronger based on the games but that is just because Beck threw mostly with touch his senior season and not a whole lot of deep balls.

Matt Ryan does have a very strong arm. I don't know where anyone would get off saying he has a weak arm. It just isn't true. He makes cross-body throws at times that are Elway-esque. He also throws some whistlers across the entire field on out patterns that get there in a real hurry. And, his deep ball is Tom Brady through and through.

Have they released the gun info on the QB's yet?...as in throwing speed of the football.

 

[daywalker]

Is this the, let's debate Matt Ryan thread

 

[Fin-Fan-13]

Have they released the gun info on the QB's yet?...as in throwing speed of the football.

I have searched and searched but can't find a report on the web. I have picked up a few numbers here and there.

Are they down playing it this year because no QB has a big arm? I honestly don't know.

 

[fishypete]

I have searched and searched but can't find a report on the web. I have picked up a few numbers here and there.

Are they down playing it this year because no QB has a big arm? I honestly don't know.

I'm sure a few have a big arm..Flacco is one of them that comes to mind.

 

[Fin-Fan-13]

I'm sure a few have a big arm..Flacco is one of them that comes to mind.

True.

I just don't understand why the numbers aren't published. IIRC, last year Gil Brandt did daily updates with top throwers in each group. Additionally, several of the draft website summarized stats that included arm speed and hand size.

In the 2006 draft, arm speeds were again a big deal with Cutler and his big arm being reported regularly.

This year, it seems like some numbers are harder to find.