If Tanne breaks 20TD Passes: He is the REAL DEAL (I PROVE IT WITH ONE SIMPLE STAT)

[LacesOutTanne34]

A Real Deal QB: A solid/above average starter in the NFL capable of leading his team to playoffs. Final Stats at End

Criteria:
1. Qb who threw for 20+ tds within first 2 years as a starter
2. OR Within first 3 years in the league IF he sat behind a starter during their rookie year or got injured and played LESS than 10 games during year 1 or 2.
3. If 20TD season came During 2nd year as a starter you MUST have thrown for MORE than 10tds in rookie year/1st year as starter (if sat during rookie year).

The Following is EVERY QB TAKEN IN 1ST ROUND SINCE 2000.
1. YES/NO BASED ON WHETHER THEY MET CRITERIA ABOVE.
2..Judged as BUST---REAL DEAL (based on definition above)--- Unfinished

2000: Chad Pennington-YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 4times

2001: Michael Vick---NO---REAL DEAL (playoffs only mentioned for those who meet criteria)

2002:
David Carr---NO---BUST
Joey Harrington---NO---BUST
Patrick Ramsey---NO---BUST

2003:
Carson Palmer---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 2 times
Byron Leftwich---NO---BUST
Kyle Boller---NO---BUST
Rex Grossman---No---BUST---(reached 20tds in 4th season/1st as starter, but also went to SB, but again my criteria is correct in assessing him as a qb as my criteria excludes him)

2004:
Eli Manning---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 5 times-2 SBS
Phillip Rivers---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 4times
Big Ben---NO---REAL DEAL
JP Losman---NO---BUST

2005:
Alex Smith---NO---REAL DEAL
Aaron Rodgers (excluded from stat based on criteria of sitting behind a HOF QB, don't like it? Me either he would have met my criteria if he played lol)

2006:
Vince Young---NO---BUST
Matt Leinart---NO---BUST
Jay Cutler---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 2 Times

2007:
Jamarcus Russell---NO---BUST
Brady Quinn---NO---BUST

2008:
Matt Ryan---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 4 times
Joe Flacco---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 5 times 1SB

2009:
Matt Stafford---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 1 time
Mark Sanchez---NO---BUST (although id love to go to afc title game twice)
Josh Freeman---NO---UNFINISHED

2010:
Sam Bradford---NO---UNFINISHED
Tim Tebow---NO---BUST (is it fair to call him a bust, when he shouldn't have been a 1st rounder anyway)

2011:
Cam Newton---YES---REAL DEAL
Jake Locker---NO---BUST/Unfinished
Blaine Gabbert---NO---BUST
Christian Ponder---NO---BUST

2012: (2nd year being played out)
Luck---YES---REAL DEAL--- Lead team(s) to playoffs: 1 times
RGIII---YES---REAL DEAL----Lead team(s) to playoffs: 1 time
Ryan Tannehill---5 AWAY---????
Brandon Weeden---NO---BUST


Criteria Reminder: qbs to reach 20 td passes in Within first two years as a starter or within first 3 overall if sat a season or inured with less than 10 games started:
# of qbs to meet criteria
Real Deal Reminder: A solid/above average starter in the NFL capable of leading his team to playoffs.

FINAL STATS-QB WHO MET CRITERIA: 11

1. 100% of the qbs who met criteria are considered the REAL DEAL.
2. 100% of these qbs have led their teams to the playoffs at least once.
3. 100% of QBS with more than 5 years in league have MULTIPLE PLAYOFF APPEARANCES
4. 100% of QBS have MULTIPLE seasons with 20+ TD passes (Not including qbs with taken 2012 and after--Cam in 2011 will get his 2nd this year currently at 17)
5. 100% of these qbs have NEVER BEEN a permanent backup QB in the league based on play, not injuries.

FINAL STATS OF QBS WHO DID NOT MEET CRITERIA
# of qbs who were drafted in 1st round who failed to throw 20 tds in first two as starter: 21

1. 86% of qbs who did not reach this number were BUSTS or BUST/UNFINISHED.
2. 14% have become the REAL DEAL...(Big Ben, Alex Smith, Michael VicK and Vicks metrics are different because of running ability)
3. 81% of these qbs NEVER threw for 20tds in one season.
4. 9.5% of these qbs have had multiple seasons of 20+ tds (Vick + Big Ben)
5. 23.8% of qbs have led teams to multiple playoff appearances (Big Ben, Vick, Sanchez, Alex Smith)


If he gets to 20 The 12 He Joins since 2000: Luck, RGIII, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Pennington, Palmer, Cutler.

I worker hard on this whether you think it means anything....tell me what your thoughts are! LETS GO FINS

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

Dude, stop. Just stop. He is getting year three. He has shown enough -- people who run NFL teams aren't as stupid as people on this site who think Pat Devlin needs to be inserted into the lineup immediately. They may bring in competition -- and that is actually a good thing -- but he is getting a third year.

We will know in 2014.

 

[Wildbill3]

with all the other stats that get thrown around here willy nilly to further an agenda, why not?

---------- Post added at 10:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:03 AM ----------

Dude, stop. Just stop. He is getting year three. He has shown enough -- people who run NFL teams aren't as stupid as people on this site who think Pat Devlin needs to be inserted into the lineup immediately. They may bring in competition -- and that is actually a good thing -- but he is getting a third year.

We will know in 2014.

It's still a better love story than a shouright thread.

 

[D0lphan72]

with all the other stats that get thrown around here willy nilly to further an agenda, why not?

---------- Post added at 10:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:03 AM ----------

It's still a better love story than a shouright thread.

or twilight

 

[LacesOutTanne34]

There is only ONE stat here and that is 20td passes within two years as a starter. WHich I looked at as a great predictor of QB success. I did not realize it was accurate 100% of the time.

You can even get rid of criteria #3 except then that lets in Josh Freeman who puts almost all of the final stats at 92% rather than 100.

 

[foozool13]

I see what you did and I appreciate all the work. It does look like you spent quite a bit of time, so well done on that.

Now if only some how T-Hill could connect on the deep balls, he probably could have gotten to 20TDs already. His deep ball inaccuracy is holding him back more than anything right now. He really does great with decision making, short passing, pocket presence is slowly getting better, but he needs to get the deep ball fixed or else none of this matters. I will still reserve my judgement as he gains more experience given he still only has 27 starts for now.

You find out about what a QB has in starts 32 to 40. The game tape is there and all the adjustments have been made for the most part. Now its just time to go out and tear **** up or fold.

 

[LacesOutTanne34]

My Point I guess is---yes we know he is getting "year 3": But he is already proving he is real deal NOW.

1. Only 11, 1st round qbs have done this (if he reaches 20) since 2000. And all have made multiple playoff appearances while remaining solid starters
2. Even if this stat means nothing which it very well might, having a 20 td qb is something our organization hasn't had in OVER A DECADE and it was jay fiedler with 20 lol

---------- Post added at 11:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:13 AM ----------

Oh I agree, clearly he needs to improve on a few things. But the point is during their first two years ALL these qbs had to improve on a few things

 

[LacesOutTanne34]

To Add the the #'s:

Of the 11 other qb who met the criteria:
1. The season in which each other these qb's hit their 20td mark 10/11 of them had a 1000 yard rb OR a pair of Rb's whose yardage combined for 1300+. We will be lucky if out top to crack 1000.
2. The highest amount of sacks taken by a qb, the season he reached the 20td mark was 41 by Andrew Luck last year. Tannehill is at 44 with 5 games left.

To me the most important aspect is the original post...these numbers just give more perspective

 

[vcip]

RT is the least of this teams problems. Actually is the only non problem. Deep accuracy an issue, but no QB can succeed properly with an awful OL, zero running game, bad play calling, a dinosaur offense, no real TE. Can't be done.
he is putting up a good season considering those factors.

 

[broccoli rob]

Robert Griffin is lucky people still buy into calling him RG3, much less calling him the real deal. Substitute RG3 with this:


2013:

Nick Foles - 16 TDs [thru 12 weeks] 0 INTs - real deal - playoff bound

 

[spiketex]

Interesting analysis lacesout - thx for your effort.

Your logic seems solid but just because historic data supports it, doesn't mean that it will happen. In the same way that up until Brady was taken 199th in the draft, no QB taken in the 6th round had ever won a Super Bowl and then he proceeded to do it 3 times (almost another 2), over 47,000 passing yards and become one of the greatest QBs of all time. Rather than looking at projecting the future based on historic results, it seems more important to observe the skill development of the QB.

BTW - I'm also rooting for Ryan Tannehill and hope that your statistical projection holds up. (Lauren hopes you're right too).

 

[nando03]

That's some solid work there. Its very interesting and I'm rooting for T-Hill. I think he can be our franchise guy and he's headed in the right direction. We definitely need to fix the oline around him though.

 

[sm0kinfins]

Well, that was certainly simple. :up:

I kid I kid. Very nice work putting this together even if I'm not real sure that it means anything.

 

[Kencoboy]

I'm glad someone is coming up with some research to support Tannehill. I think he's been getting a raw deal by some of us. To think of all the nonsense this kid is putting up with this year offensively and he's still improving speaks volumes to me about where he could be given a consistent running game and pass blocking. Of course, we may never know what he could be....

 

[Wildbill3]

Interesting analysis lacesout - thx for your effort.

Your logic seems solid but just because historic data supports it, doesn't mean that it will happen. In the same way that up until Brady was taken 199th in the draft, no QB taken in the 6th round had ever won a Super Bowl and then he proceeded to do it 3 times (almost another 2), over 47,000 passing yards and become one of the greatest QBs of all time. Rather than looking at projecting the future based on historic results, it seems more important to observe the skill development of the QB.

BTW - I'm also rooting for Ryan Tannehill and hope that your statistical projection holds up. (Lauren hopes you're right too).

past performance is the greatest predicator of future performance. sure Ryan might be the one that breaks the trend, its just more likely he continues it. (only thing going to hold him back apparently might be a completely changeover at the top.