If we trade down into the bottom of the first... | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

If we trade down into the bottom of the first...

But you are using the exact same 20/20 hindsight to "prove" your point.

There is no absolute way to do it.

Sometimes trading down for extra ammo is the smart move, sometimes moving up for the guy you love(like KC and Mahomes for example)is the smart move.
I'm not... I have NOT pointed to any past trades... not once.

What I have done, is point out that we could get 3:1, 4:1, even 5:1 and have more shots at getting players, and rather than answering this specific point... the responses have been more of a mindset of... hey, in this one particular instance, it didn't work.

This doesn't even begin to confront the argument I am making. Their responses have been anecdotal, at best.
 
But... since it came up...

Chicago got
Mitch Trubiski.

S.F. got
Solomon Thomas DE (marginal player)
#67 which became Alvin Kamara RB after moving that pick to New Orleans (Star RB)
#111 which became Tedrick Thompson S after moving the pick to Seattle (bust)
Fred Warner LB (Starting LB)

Do all trades work out this poorly for the teams who trade up? Nope... but it is an example of what CAN happen.

New York Jets got
Sam Darnold

Indy got
Quenton Nelson G (All Pro)
Braden Smith G (Starter, All Rookie team)
#49 became Dallas Goedert (solid starter)
Rock Ya-Sin CB (All rookie team)

Now... you tell me... who got the worst of this?

I'll wait...

Does this always work? Nope... but when you put all your eggs in one basket... and that player fails to live up to your incredibly lofty expectations... you are screwed.

Coming back at me with, but it didn't work that one time in band camp answers... aint gonna cut it, because you are only arguing that more players isn't ALWAYS better... a point that I have conceded from the start. My point is that if you turn down a 4:1, you had freaking BETTER hope it works out in your favour.
 
...and as I've pointed out, this boils down to cherry picking perfect examples.

For instance... How much would the Jets have prospered if they'd taken a package and not drafted Darnold?

Or... how much would teams have prospered if they had traded down and not picked Jamarcus Russell, or RGB3, or any of the other players who have busted?

C'mon... just stop it. You are trying to ignore that so many players bust, and that is illogical and intellectually dishonest.

...and that is the problem with every single poster who attempts to make this argument, they use 20/20 hindsight and select players who have worked out and then tried to say... see! SEE HOW THIS WORKZ...

and it is just a crap argument.


You're the one talking in absolutes, not me. I couldn't readily think of umpteen examples if it "almost always was the smart decision".

Certain players not being elite because they doesn't fit your criteria ... I could go on ...
 
You're the one talking in absolutes, not me. I couldn't readily think of umpteen examples if it "almost always was the smart decision".

Certain players not being elite because they doesn't fit your criteria ... I could go on ...
I'm not...

I'm suggesting that more players is generally better than one player.

...and some folks are arguing... but Devonte Smith is soooo cool... and manly... and he'll be a star... SQUEAL!!!
 
If Rousseau takes a huge fall, I'd move up to late first...
 
I'm not...

I'm suggesting that more players is generally better than one player.

...and some folks are arguing... but Devonte Smith is soooo cool... and manly... and he'll be a star... SQUEAL!!!
You bring up great examples and to be honest I can only counter with I don't care whether it was Jimmy Johnson or Chris Grier we do not fare well in trade downs. Having said that I think 90% of us would prefer a "slight" trade down. Not as many picks but still a chance at a top 10 elite player and 1-2 more picks. That to me is the answer, should satisfy all.

Actually Nelson was #6 and Darnold was #3? That is a lot of picks for 3 spots, no way we get that. Talk about a slight trade down that paid off.
 
IMO people are over-thinking things. All year long most everybody has agreed that Tua excels with WRs who get quick separation and our best targets, Parker, Gesicki and Williams are literally and factually among the worst in the league at getting quick separation. There is a prospect available who is elite at getting quick separation, has already shown great chemistry with Tua and has a personality and work ethic that fits perfectly with the culture Flores wants. He also has proven to be a true #1 and shown the ability to play inside and on the perimeter. It would be folly to pass on him to get other players who either, aren't as good at getting quick separation, lack the demonstrated versatility to play inside and out, haven't shown the ability to be a true #1, have personality questions and/or haven't shown any chemistry with our QB. Obviously, the chemistry thing is a rare anomaly. But it is still a plus.
 
IMO people are over-thinking things. All year long most everybody has agreed that Tua excels with WRs who get quick separation and our best targets, Parker, Gesicki and Williams are literally and factually among the worst in the league at getting quick separation. There is a prospect available who is elite at getting quick separation, has already shown great chemistry with Tua and has a personality and work ethic that fits perfectly with the culture Flores wants. He also has proven to be a true #1 and shown the ability to play inside and on the perimeter. It would be folly to pass on him to get other players who either, aren't as good at getting quick separation, lack the demonstrated versatility to play inside and out, haven't shown the ability to be a true #1, have personality questions and/or haven't shown any chemistry with our QB. Obviously, the chemistry thing is a rare anomaly. But it is still a plus.
There are many other undersized WRs in this draft who win through separation... most of whom who will be drafted later. Heck, some of them weigh more than 165 pounds.

But this thread wasn't really about Devonte Smith... thus my earlier comment about Smith fangirls.
 
You bring up great examples and to be honest I can only counter with I don't care whether it was Jimmy Johnson or Chris Grier we do not fare well in trade downs. Having said that I think 90% of us would prefer a "slight" trade down. Not as many picks but still a chance at a top 10 elite player and 1-2 more picks. That to me is the answer, should satisfy all.

Actually Nelson was #6 and Darnold was #3? That is a lot of picks for 3 spots, no way we get that. Talk about a slight trade down that paid off.
I would prefer a slight trade down myself... if it generated Darnold results...

This thread was just meant as a simulation, and a conservative one at that... evidently the amount of return I received was moderate compared to what others managed to get.
 
I am not arguing against a trade down.

My instinct is to always want to trade down.

I will agree that most of the time going quantity over quality is the way to go but not always.

Is it better to get 3 solid players than target 1 great one and have him fail? Yes.

But what if you succeed in getting a superstar who transforms your team?

Is that better than 3 solid guys? Yes.

If your point is "t is better to be safe than sorry" then fine, but it isn't always better to be safe than sorry.

"You have to bet big to win big"is a cliche too.
 
I am not arguing against a trade down.

My instinct is to always want to trade down.

I will agree that most of the time going quantity over quality is the way to go but not always.

Is it better to get 3 solid players than target 1 great one and have him fail? Yes.

But what if you succeed in getting a superstar who transforms your team?

Is that better than 3 solid guys? Yes.

If your point is "t is better to be safe than sorry" then fine, but it isn't always better to be safe than sorry.

"You have to bet big to win big"is a cliche too.
I basically agree with you...

But I just don't think that a single WR in this draft has Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss written on him.

I do, however, think Penei Sewell has Anthony Munoz written on him... and I'd still lean towards a trade down. There is a tendency for over-payment in these draft day trades. (As the Darnold deal showed all too well)

I was trying a simulation to show the type of return we'd get; it was never about any specific player really. And that's why some of the replies surprised me. I still feel they boiled down to but I neeeeed that exact player-- which is why people overpay to begin with.
 
I basically agree with you...

But I just don't think that a single WR in this draft has Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss written on him.

I do, however, think Penei Sewell has Anthony Munoz written on him... and I'd still lean towards a trade down. There is a tendency for over-payment in these draft day trades. (As the Darnold deal showed all too well)

I was trying a simulation to show the type of return we'd get; it was never about any specific player really. And that's why some of the replies surprised me. I still feel they boiled down to but I neeeeed that exact player-- which is why people overpay to begin with.
I don't want to take a WR at #3 either.

And I agree with you about Sewell.

My strong preference is to trade down and take one of the WR's(or Pitts) a little later.

But if they can't move off of #3 I am gong Sewell and putting him at RT to protect Tua.

Maybe I move up from #18 for WR or take a couple swings at the position but I really hate the idea of using the 3rd pick overall on that position.

A pick that high should bring you a QB, a great OT, a great pass rusher or a great CB.

As badly as Miami needs to upgrade the WR position that position is still a complimentary one that does not require greatness to be productive.
 
I don't want to take a WR at #3 either.

And I agree with you about Sewell.

My strong preference is to trade down and take one of the WR's(or Pitts) a little later.

But if they can't move off of #3 I am gong Sewell and putting him at RT to protect Tua.

Maybe I move up from #18 for WR or take a couple swings at the position but I really hate the idea of using the 3rd pick overall on that position.

A pick that high should bring you a QB, a great OT, a great pass rusher or a great CB.

As badly as Miami needs to upgrade the WR position that position is still a complimentary one that does not require greatness to be productive.
I think we are actually pretty close in our opinions...

Fortunately, both the WR and the Tackle pools are VERY deep this year, and I think that if we play our cards right, we can trade down and still get both... maybe even in the 1st round.

All this... we gotta have Devonte Smith or I'm gonna wet myself... stuff is just annoying. Just like the guys who wanted to trade up for Tua last year.

Just childish impatience.
 
There are many other undersized WRs in this draft who win through separation... most of whom who will be drafted later. Heck, some of them weigh more than 165 pounds.

But this thread wasn't really about Devonte Smith... thus my earlier comment about Smith fangirls.
It's always about what specific players you're passing on.

But real classy calling those who don't agree with you fangirls.
 
I am on board with getting what we can for #3 that leaves us in the neighborhood of a player we want to draft plus extra day 2 and future picks. But none of these mocks have us drafting a 1st or 2nd round DT. We are not done building inside out.

RW
 
Back
Top Bottom