If (When) Miami Has #1 Overall Pick in 2020... | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

If (When) Miami Has #1 Overall Pick in 2020...

Trade #1 Overall Pick?

  • Yes

    Votes: 19 28.4%
  • No

    Votes: 48 71.6%

  • Total voters
    67
  • Poll closed .
As far as which 2020 QB we'd take … let's all cool our heels a bit. It's early days and as we all know, it's how you finish that matters most, not how you start. There will be significant movement across the season and then when the Underwear Olympics season comes around guys like Herbert will once again surge up draft boards. There's still an awful lot of evaluation to be done between now and the draft.

Yes, Tua had an impressive first game. He'll have his good and bad moments. Yes, Lawrence had a bad first game, and he'll have his ups and downs before he comes out in 2021 as well.
 
Easy answer, they pull the trigger on a franchise QB at #1 in 2020.

Let's look at the alternatives.

1) Rosen balls out and conclusively determines that he's the man for the future … so we'll not get that #1 overall pick.

2) Rosen has positives and minuses but trends up and flashes great ability, enough to warrant another 1 year trial period. Well, if we don't draft a QB in 2020, the coaching staff is kinda wed to Rosen at that point, so if Rosen falls on his face in 2020, this coaching staff is likely replaced and some other coach pulls the trigger on the QB in 2021. Or, Grier gets replaced and the new GM brings in his guy. Either way, too much pressure on the coaching staff to string it out.

3) Rosen fails to convince. If we don't draft a QB then, the coaching staff will almost certainly be fired before the 2021 draft, and the new staff comes in with a TON of young talent and a top young QB from the 2021 draft to look absolutely fantastic compared to our current coaching staff. This is the proverbial worst case scenario for Coach Flo and staff, not to mention the new GM who replaces Grier if we don't draft a QB after Rosen flops.

4) Rosen flops but we receive a king's ransom for the top pick …. like maybe three 1sts and two 2nds. Well, it would be hard to say no to that, but there's still a 50/50 chance that this warchest of draft picks is spent by another coaching staff and GM, even if it is the right thing to do to take those picks in trade.

Each alternative seems to put a lot of pressure on the coaching staff and GM to draft a QB in 2020 if we get the #1 overall pick. The only scenario I see that doesn't is if Rosen does well, but then we'll not have the #1 overall pick unless it is the Texans who are the worst team in the league … and I think the odds are greater that we're the worst team.

If I'm a betting man, I'm all-in on the Dolphins drafting a QB in the 1st round in 2020.
Dude, it's the first year this regime is in place and they've been given the blessing in the owners own words to "tank". Unless Ross himself is mandating that they draft a QB 1st overall they won't get fired for evaluating Rosen for a 2nd season with a better O-line in place if he warrants it.

They are going to get at least 3 years unless this year's draft and next don't pan out whatsoever.
 
We likely will not have the number 1 pick.

Top 5 maybe...

While we lack elite talent - we make it up for itcwitj real coaching.

We will be competitive in most games.

We will win at least 4 and maybe more.

We may win 6...

I prefer to go 0-16... but we won’t....

Previous iterations of the Dolphins were pretty awful and we won 6,7,8 games...

Dolphins might need trading power just to get in the top 5....
 
We likely will not have the number 1 pick.

Top 5 maybe...

While we lack elite talent - we make it up for itcwitj real coaching.

We will be competitive in most games.

We will win at least 4 and maybe more.

We may win 6...

I prefer to go 0-16... but we won’t....

Previous iterations of the Dolphins were pretty awful and we won 6,7,8 games...

Dolphins might need trading power just to get in the top 5....
We have the worst collection of talent in the league and your point that we "make up for it with real coaching" is optimistic homerism considering our coaches haven't coached a real game yet. We have no idea what we have yet as far as coaching goes.
 
Wouldn't the biggest variable be Rosen's progression? I mean the guy has been part of the organization for just over four months and we're dead set on drafting his replacement in April? This regime clearly covets draft picks at the moment as they try to reshape the roster, so in a "situational value" scenario the 2nd they traded for Rosen is as valuable as a contender trading a 1st, if not more so.

Most teams would start the young QB in our situation, but this staff wants to better prepare him and fine tune his game while they try to improve the O-line play. They've invested a high draft pick in him, there's not much sense in throwing him into a bad situation and ruining him. Drafting is part of it, development is the other especially at a position like QB where there is so much to learn.

There's a lot of football to be played between now and April before we determine with certainty that we have to grab a QB.
Rosen is going to have to look like the second coming of Pat freaking Mahomes for me not to want Miami to invest in a high pick QB next year, and so far, from what I've seen from Rosen it isn't even close. Nothing about Rosen has looked elite to me. Miami will not be in a position to be patient with him and give him two years to figure out what he is. They are most likely going to be in prime position to take a QB early in next year's draft. They also have the necessary assets now to move up if they have to in order to get a QB. In the worst case scenario, you let the rookie and Rosen battle it out. It is not a problem if you end up with two talented QB's on your roster. Both would be cheap and if the rookie looks like the real deal you flip Rosen (if he shows anything) for more draft assets.
 
Rosen is going to have to look like the second coming of Pat freaking Mahomes for me not to want Miami to invest in a high pick QB next year, and so far, from what I've seen from Rosen it isn't even close. Nothing about Rosen has looked elite to me. Miami will not be in a position to be patient with him and give him two years to figure out what he is. They are most likely going to be in prime position to take a QB early in next year's draft. They also have the necessary assets now to move up if they have to in order to get a QB. In the worst case scenario, you let the rookie and Rosen battle it out. It is not a problem if you end up with two talented QB's on your roster. Both would be cheap and if the rookie looks like the real deal you flip Rosen (if he shows anything) for more draft assets.

I personally think your standards are too high. Mahomes stepped into a situation where he was already playing for a contender with pro bowl weapons and a solid offensive line.

Troy Aikman went 1-15 didn't he? That turned out alright.
 
I personally think your standards are too high. Mahomes stepped into a situation where he was already playing for a contender with pro bowl weapons and a solid offensive line.

Troy Aikman went 1-15 didn't he? That turned out alright.


You can’t judge it that way especially on a team that lacks talent as mucb as ours does.

You have to separate qb play from everything else. But I also think we need to pay attention to can the qb elevate those around him or is he just flat set up to fail.

Right now it feels an awful lot like the latter but I want to see what this scheme and coaching does for a clip in season before I lock into that. If we somehow get serviceable o line play well then by golly he needs to make plays.
 
Rosen is going to have to look like the second coming of Pat freaking Mahomes for me not to want Miami to invest in a high pick QB next year, and so far, from what I've seen from Rosen it isn't even close. Nothing about Rosen has looked elite to me. Miami will not be in a position to be patient with him and give him two years to figure out what he is. They are most likely going to be in prime position to take a QB early in next year's draft. They also have the necessary assets now to move up if they have to in order to get a QB. In the worst case scenario, you let the rookie and Rosen battle it out. It is not a problem if you end up with two talented QB's on your roster. Both would be cheap and if the rookie looks like the real deal you flip Rosen (if he shows anything) for more draft assets.
What if you're not enamored of any of the QBs as a prospective franchise QB? (Think 2008). Take one anyway? That's loser desperation (think Bill O'Brien).
 
If Rosen settles in and does well- (no question about his ability’s)- I’d stay and take Chase Young. Oline next with the Houston pick.
 
I personally think your standards are too high. Mahomes stepped into a situation where he was already playing for a contender with pro bowl weapons and a solid offensive line.

Troy Aikman went 1-15 didn't he? That turned out alright.
It was a totally different era of football back then. QB's almost always took time to develop back then, but now the QB's today have had so many reps by the time they get to the NFL it doesn't take nearly as long to know what you have as a player at QB. Rookies come in and are productive now. Rosen already had a rookie season and he has made some strides since last season but not nearly enough, in my opinion, to say Miami is set at QB. Not even close. Also, Miami doesn't have nearly as much invested in Rosen as the Cowboys had invested in Aikman. Aikman was the clear cut number one prospect the year he came out. Rosen was the fourth QB taken in his class and was subsequently traded away the very next season.

Even with the huge investment the Cowboys made in Aikman, they still spent a first round draft pick in the supplemental draft to select another QB Steve Walsh. The Cowboys were lucky enough to turn around and fleece the Saints the following year by trading Walsh to them for a 1st and a 3rd and a second the following season. Taking another QB with a high pick next season won't totally sink Rosen's value if he shows anything over the coarse of the season and in a training camp battle with a rookie. Worst case scenario, Rosen ends up being a cheap backup if the rookie is the real deal.
 
What if you're not enamored of any of the QBs as a prospective franchise QB? (Think 2008). Take one anyway? That's loser desperation (think Bill O'Brien).
Isn't that what Arizona did with Rosen? Yeah, you keep taking swings at the most important position in all of professional sports. You're telling me there won't be any qb's worth first round value in next season's draft? I'm not buying it.
 
Lawrence was 13/23 168yds 1TD 2INT against Georgia Tech, while Tua was 26/31 336yds 4TD 0INT against Duke.

Can this narrative that Lawrence is better than Tua based on the only game people have watched of either of them die, please?

So you provide a 1 game example to dispute a 1 game opinion?
 
If Rosen settles in and does well- (no question about his ability’s)- I’d stay and take Chase Young. Oline next with the Houston pick.
No question about his ability? I have all kinds of questions about his ability. So did Arizona. That's why they shipped him out of there only one year after taking him in the top ten.
 
Isn't that what Arizona did with Rosen? Yeah, you keep taking swings at the most important position in all of professional sports. You're telling me there won't be any qb's worth first round value in next season's draft? I'm not buying it.
No. Arizona traded up to get Rosen. They didn't just "take a swing" because he fell to them.

Of course there will be QBs with first round value. Will there be any with top-overall-pick-value (to us)? I have no idea. And if there isn't I'm not just "taking a swing" and taking one anyway.

I can't even wrap my head around that line of thought. That method keeps team sucking and loses GMs their jobs.
 
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