------ In Depth Breakdown: Playoff Chances | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

------ In Depth Breakdown: Playoff Chances

Dolphins won't beat the Jets the last game of the season and will manage to lose some other games they shouldn't. Sorry, but we won't be seeing the playoffs this year.
 
Guys and Gals Here is a further breakdown. Of what needs to happen.


AFC Winning Magic Numbers

Titans 10 1 - will need 2 more wins to clinch a spot. 4 more wins to clinch division title AFCS.

Steelers 8 3- will need 3 more wins to clinch a spot. 5 more wins to clinch division title AFCN.

Jets 8 3 - will need 4 more wins to clinch a spot. 5 wins to clinch division title AFCE.

Broncos 6 5 - will need 4 more wins to clinch a spot. 4 wins to clinch AFCW.

WILD CARDS
Colts 7 4 - will need 5 more wins to clinch a spot. They DNCD for division title.

Ravens 7 4 - will need 5 more wins to clinch a spot. They DNCD for division title.


STILL ALIVE
Patriots 7 4 - will need 5 more wins to clinch a spot and will need help from Ravens Colts, and Jets. They DNCD for division title.

Dolphins 6-5 - DNCD. Will need help from Patriots, Ravens, Colts, and Jets. Even if they win out they will need help.

Bills 6 5 - DNCD. Will need help from Dolphins, Patriots, Ravens, Colts, and Jets. Even if they win out they will need help.

Chargers 4 7 - DNCD. They have been eliminated from Wild Card contention. The only way they can get in is by winning the AFCW. 2 more losses and they are out.

Jaguars 4 7 - DNCD. If they lose 2 more they are out.

Browns 4 7 - DNCD. If they lose 2 more they are out.

Texans South 4 7 - DNCD. If they lose 2 more they are out.

Raiders 3 8 -DNCD. If they lose 1 more they are out of Wild Card race. They are still in the Division title race for the AFCW but if they lose 2 more games the are eliminated.

Bengals 1 9 1 - The are officially eliminated.

Chiefs 1 10 -DNCD. The are still alive for the Division Title. 1 more loss and they are officially eliminated.

Notes
"DNCD" indicates the team Does Not Control its Destiny for this playoff spot and thus, even after winning all remaining games, needs help from other teams to win.
 
Mile High Fin said:
First off, we will have to go at least 4-1 to finish 10-6. That is a bare minimum requirement, but that may still not be enough.
It looks likely that we will need to go 5-0 (11-5) to get in the playoffs (because we'd probably lose most tie-breakers at 10-6).

Indy is virtually a lock for #5 seed, with an easy schedule remaining:
@Cle, Cin, Det, @Jac, Ten
Good chance they go 4-1 (11-5), but even if they only go 3-2, they'll be 10-6; and their conference record (first tie-breaker) is better than ours so far (6-2 vs. our 5-4 so far).



So, the battle will come down to the #6 seed:

Baltimore has a BRUTAL schedule remaining:
@Cin, Was, Pit, @Dal, Jac
If they go 2-3, they will end up 9-7.
Assuming they beat Cin & Jac, they MUST lose to Was, Pit & Dal. If they beat any of those 3 teams, then they will be 10-6, and win the tie-breaker against us (head-to-head).

New England has these games left:
Pit, @Sea, @Oak, Ari, @Buf
If they lose 2, they will be 10-6, then we'd go to tie-breakers:
1. split head-to-head;
2. division record (they are 3-2 now; we are 2-2 now);
3. common games (they're 7-3 now; we are 6-3 now);
4. conference record (we're both 5-4 now);
5. strength of victory (whatever this is???).
Click to expand...

a victory over the jets, combined with the pats losing to say the steelers and Bills, and the jets going 2-2 in their other games, and we can STILL lose ANOTHER game and still win the division. if miami beats the jets and bills chances are one way or another they will make the playoffs. they have to win those two games tho
 
What happens if the Jets lose a game between now and the time we play them, then we beat the Jets. We would have the same record, so who would win the division?
 
FinsFan74 said:
What happens if the Jets lose a game between now and the time we play them, then we beat the Jets. We would have the same record, so who would win the division?
Click to expand...

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures


I can't imagine that it would ever come down to a coin toss.
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Can I just say how thrilled I am to be even talking about playoffs right now? Wow its been a long time since we've had these types of talks. I really didn't expect this good of a season and Im proud of this team so far. Lets just hope to keep winning and maybe things will go our way.
 
If we win out we are in.......5 game win streak is doable......Lets take a look at this thread at the end of the season and see how it plays out....It never plays out how you thing it will, something always changes like injuries, bad weather a terrible call or bad decisions in a close game.......hopefully those things won't happen to us
 
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