Insider Allbright has Miami taking Smith #3 | Page 6 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Insider Allbright has Miami taking Smith #3

Parsons no thanks. He would be à Star but a LB in top 10 draft in this passing league today its not the Best idea. We need a (very) good lb to make tackles against the opposing RB.

A top 3 (or 6/7 of we trade down), its for a OT (Pewell and we hope is not the next Joeckel) or Smith Who can be a future star at Wr. Somebody says is a future hofamer.

Ps: sorry for my english.
 
You clearly have no idea what Kyle Pitts is, or seen any of his tape. I've watched every single snap of his as a Gator.

Firstly the Kid can block, where on earth did you read he couldn't, he's just not asked to do it a lot because he's so damn good in other areas.
Secondly he's not a converted TE to WR, he's a receiver you can line up literally anywhere and he will create a match up nightmares, he can also block men way bigger than he is. He is not your typical TE because he has all the skills require dfor an elite prospect at WR too.

He's a freak of an athlete, a rare talent that you simply can't find in many drafts, the 3ypc guys in their latest pod described him a the best TE prospect to come out in many a year. And it's difficult to argue with that. Tua needs weapons, Gesicki isn't consistent enough, especially with Tua throwing him the ball to hang your hat on and give him a huge wedge of cash next season when his contract is up. The league is all about creating mismatches, and everyone who watched college football last year described Pitts as the biggest mismatch in the country. Passing on him could be a huge mistake especially if he goes at 15 to a team we have to play twice a year.

IMO you don't let this kid get past you and after a trade back to no lower than 10 you grab him, you can get WRs in the 2nd and 3rd that will help you out too but you won't get another Pitts in this or any other draft for a long time.



Lol, The biggest problem draft wise is he’s likely not going to be there at 18. It’s looking like he’s going to be top 13 at worst. So if Miami takes Smith @3 then they’d have to package 18 and something else to move up to get him. That’s likely not happening.

If by some craziness he’s still there at @18 then they have to consider him vs. a talent at RB like Harris being in the board. It’s hard to take Pitts there when you’re good at the TE position and have a glearing need at RB. The only you bypass RB there is if you feel a good one will be available in the 2nd.
 
Nonsense. Prime example for junk stats.

I give a you a better stats. 95% of the murderers have eaten tomato one month prior the murder act. The stats shows a strong corolation between tomato and murder. That is exactly like your silly argument.

Give me a stats that in last 20 years a LT taken in first three picks has taken his team to win a SB in his first three years? You can't. I can frame my argument too, just like you did. I just made you post look ridiculous. Do better next time.

Sowell = waste pick
Which is why I used a 10 year sample size and the entire first round, not 3 years and the first 3 picks. I’d be happy to do some research to see how many first round LTs were taken in the first round over the past 10 years that went to the Super Bowl if you’d like, then we can draw a fair comparison. Your “argument” has no relevance to mine at all.

I”m sorry, I’m not saying he’s not good, but I don’t think 175 pound Devante Smith is worthy of being the highest drafted WR since Calvin Johnson. We can do better if we stay at 3, which I doubt we will.

Not sure what the hostility is all about, but whatever. You do you.
 
You clearly have no idea what Kyle Pitts is, or seen any of his tape. I've watched every single snap of his as a Gator.

Firstly the Kid can block, where on earth did you read he couldn't, he's just not asked to do it a lot because he's so damn good in other areas.
Secondly he's not a converted TE to WR, he's a receiver you can line up literally anywhere and he will create a match up nightmares, he can also block men way bigger than he is. He is not your typical TE because he has all the skills require dfor an elite prospect at WR too.

He's a freak of an athlete, a rare talent that you simply can't find in many drafts, the 3ypc guys in their latest pod described him a the best TE prospect to come out in many a year. And it's difficult to argue with that. Tua needs weapons, Gesicki isn't consistent enough, especially with Tua throwing him the ball to hang your hat on and give him a huge wedge of cash next season when his contract is up. The league is all about creating mismatches, and everyone who watched college football last year described Pitts as the biggest mismatch in the country. Passing on him could be a huge mistake especially if he goes at 15 to a team we have to play twice a year.

IMO you don't let this kid get past you and after a trade back to no lower than 10 you grab him, you can get WRs in the 2nd and 3rd that will help you out too but you won't get another Pitts in this or any other draft for a long time.


Why would you want to draft the guy that had 700 yards as opposed to the guy who had over 1,500?

Not saying Pitts would be a terrible pick at 18 or a slight trade up if we could get him, but to make it an either/or with Smith sounds insane.
 
Nonsense. Prime example for junk stats.

I give a you a better stats. 95% of the murderers have eaten tomato one month prior the murder act. The stats shows a strong corolation between tomato and murder. That is exactly like your silly argument.

Give me a stats that in last 20 years a LT taken in first three picks has taken his team to win a SB in his first three years? You can't. I can frame my argument too, just like you did. I just made you post look ridiculous. Do better next time.

Sowell = waste pick
How's this for an argument against Smith at #3, maybe this will be "framed" in a way that is acceptable to you. Over the past 10 years, only one of the best WR's from that draft class was drafted in the Top 10. Julio Jones at #6 in 2011. (if I missed one forgive me, but I don't think I did)

2020-Justin Jefferson at #22
2019-AJ Brown at #51, DK Metcalf at #64
2018-Calvin Ridley at #26
2017-Chris Godwin at #84, Kenny Golladay at #96
2016-Michael Thomas at #47, Tyreke Hill at #165
2015-Stefon Diggs at #146
2014-DeVante Adams at #53 (just to be transparent, Mike Evans was drafted at #7 but he's not as good as DeVante Adams. I wouldn't want to be accused of "framing" my argument)
2013-DeAndre Hopkins at #27
2012-TY Hilton at #92
2011-Julio Jones at #6

Can we please learn from draft history that it is completely unnecessary to use a pick as high as 3, or even in the top 10 to draft a #1 WR? It almost never works out. The WR's that have been picked in the Top 10 the past 10 years are: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tevan Austin, Justin Blackmon, Julio Jones, and AJ Green. 3 Game changers on that list, and Smith doesn't have nearly the size of Jones, AJ Green, or Mike Evans.

The odds are WAY against Smith being worthy of a pick as high as #3. If we stay there, we need to ensure we hit on the pick and should learn from past mistakes of other teams.
 
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How's this for an argument against Smith at #3, maybe this will be "framed" in a way that is acceptable to you. Over the past 10 years, only one of the best WR's from that draft class was drafted in the Top 10. Julio Jones at #6 in 2011. (if I missed one forgive me, but I don't think I did)

2020-Justin Jefferson at #22
2019-AJ Brown at #51, DK Metcalf at #64
2018-Calvin Ridley at #26
2017-Chris Godwin at #84, Kenny Golladay at #96
2016-Michael Thomas at #47, Tyreke Hill at #165
2015-Stefon Diggs at #146
2014-DeVante Adams at #53 (just to be transparent, Mike Evans was drafted at #7 but he's not as good as DeVante Adams. I wouldn't want to be accused of "framing" my argument)
2013-DeAndre Hopkins at #27
2012-TY Hilton at #92
2011-Julio Jones at #6

Can we please learn from draft history that it is completely unnecessary to use a pick as high as 3, or even in the top 10 to draft a #1 WR? It almost never works out. The WR's that have been picked in the Top 10 the past 10 years are: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tevan Austin, Justin Blackmon, Julio Jones, and AJ Green. 3 Game changers on that list, and Smith doesn't have nearly the size of Jones, AJ Green, or Mike Evans.

The odds are WAY against Smith being worthy of a pick as high as #3. If we stay there, we need to ensure we hit on the pick and should learn from past mistakes of other teams.
Do you think Devonta Smith has as much of a chance panning out as John Ross?
 
Do you think Devonta Smith has as much of a chance panning out as John Ross?
i think when John Ross was drafted the Bengals were as high on him as we would be on Smith if we drafted him at #3. Again, I'm not saying he's not good, but many don't even have him as the highest rated WR in this draft class, much less the best WR prospect in 15 years. #3 is too high for him, or ANY WR for that matter unless they are the second coming of Calvin Johnson, which Smith is not.

Historically speaking, there's like a 60-70% chance that Smith, or any WR we might pick in the top 10, will not be worth picking that high. Maybe if we can find a partner and trade down to somewhere in the 6-10 range, picking a WR there can be justified because we'd most likely be getting another #1 to mitigate the risk, but not at #3.
 
As a Florida fan, I would love to see Kadarius Toney on our roster. That kid is a heckuva playmaker in several aspects of the game.

I've heard rumors that he was lazy with getting to learn the playbook and putting time in the film room, which doesn't seem like a Flores kind of player.
 
i think when John Ross was drafted the Bengals were as high on him as we would be on Smith if we drafted him at #3. Again, I'm not saying he's not good, but many don't even have him as the highest rated WR in this draft class, much less the best WR prospect in 15 years. #3 is too high for him, or ANY WR for that matter unless they are the second coming of Calvin Johnson, which Smith is not.

Historically speaking, there's like a 60-70% chance that Smith, or any WR we might pick in the top 10, will not be worth picking that high. Maybe if we can find a partner and trade down to somewhere in the 6-10 range, picking a WR there can be justified because we'd most likely be getting another #1 to mitigate the risk, but not at #3.
I think you're digging too deep here. Nobody on the planet Earth was super high on John Ross compared to his actual production in the same vein as Devonta Smith would be.

Example, in no universe should Justin Fields be drafted top 5, but he will be because that's all there is behind Lawrence. If you made a "Chances of drafting a QB top 5" draft list, it's going to include both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. While they're both data points, they're nowhere close to the same chance of working out in the NFL. That's why I always ignore these kind of arguments because it has nothing to do with WHERE someone was drafted. It has to do with how highly graded they are compared to similarly graded players which removes the variance of loaded/weak draft classes, but is also way more subjective and harder to prove your point with so people don't do it.
 
I think you're digging too deep here. Nobody on the planet Earth was super high on John Ross compared to his actual production in the same vein as Devonta Smith would be.

Example, in no universe should Justin Fields be drafted top 5, but he will be because that's all there is behind Lawrence. If you made a "Chances of drafting a QB top 5" draft list, it's going to include both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. While they're both data points, they're nowhere close to the same chance of working out in the NFL. That's why I always ignore these kind of arguments because it has nothing to do with WHERE someone was drafted. It has to do with how highly graded they are compared to similarly graded players which removes the variance of loaded/weak draft classes, but is also way more subjective and harder to prove your point with so people don't do it.
How is that digging deep when it's an objective fact that pretty much all the best WRs in the NFL currently were picked in the 20's or much later, when so many other WRs that were graded higher were picked earlier and are not as good? That should serve as definitive proof we don't need to use pick #3 on an WR. The bottom line is we can't fool ourselves into thinking that this year is the outlier because we are so enamored with Smith that we have to use the #3 pick on him.
 
How is that digging deep when it's an objective fact that pretty much all the best WRs in the NFL currently were picked in the 20's or much later, when so many other WRs that were graded higher were picked earlier and are not as good? That should serve as definitive proof we don't need to use pick #3 on an WR. The bottom line is we can't fool ourselves into thinking that this year is the outlier because we are so enamored with Smith that we have to use the #3 pick on him.
Who cares where WRs were picked 20 years ago or later? They have far more impact today than they did back then because of the rule changes.
 
I think Waddle is being overrated. Plus his injuries. Dont want to draft injured players.
Were you onboard for us drafting Tua, or is this another way to say that we should draft (Sewell, Smith, Parsons)?
 
Why would you want to draft the guy that had 700 yards as opposed to the guy who had over 1,500?

Not saying Pitts would be a terrible pick at 18 or a slight trade up if we could get him, but to make it an either/or with Smith sounds insane.

My ideal world isn't an either/or at all it's a both Pitts and Smith would be a great duo. But if I have to prioritise one in the first it would be Pitts because you can't get that talent anywhere else. It's difficult to get Smith's talent either but the drop off to a St Brown, Marshall, Wallace, Toney, Bateman, Rodgers or whomever is not as severe.

To get an and we will have to manufacture to top 12 picks, that's doable with trading down and back up.
 
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