Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders
I guess the questio is, did we add enough to overcome some of the statical data these guys keep..
Here's a direct link to their site:
Footballoutsiders.com/
Interesting perspective from Football Outsiders
- Thread starter MDFINFAN
- Start date
Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders
I guess the questio is, did we add enough to overcome some of the statical data these guys keep..
Here's a direct link to their site:
Footballoutsiders.com/
Gardenhead
Pro Bowler
I read footballoutsiders.com every day and I'm a better informed fan because of it.
Cant recommend it enough!
Cant recommend it enough!
Pandarilla 72
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I don't buy it. Sure, it sounds smart and scientific(y), but your raw data is so limited because football simply has'nt been around that long.
Plus, all the statistics are negative toward the Dolphins
Bottom line, If we end up topping last year's performance, it'll just be another year's data to them. It won't prove or disprove anything, It'll just slightly skew their original opinion (Which is that we're screwed, fold up the tents, don't even bother, sianara).
Plus, all the statistics are negative toward the Dolphins
Bottom line, If we end up topping last year's performance, it'll just be another year's data to them. It won't prove or disprove anything, It'll just slightly skew their original opinion (Which is that we're screwed, fold up the tents, don't even bother, sianara).
Rhody Phins Fan
FinHeaven VIP
I don't buy it. Sure, it sounds smart and scientific(y), but your raw data is so limited because football simply has'nt been around that long.
Plus, all the statistics are negative toward the Dolphins
Bottom line, If we end up topping last year's performance, it'll just be another year's data to them. It won't prove or disprove anything, It'll just slightly skew their original opinion (Which is that we're screwed, fold up the tents, don't even bother, sianara).
Yeah but they don't just look at statistics. They literally watch and chart every single play of every single game. They also scout as well. They really provide a great combination of analysis.
Chimera0777
Active Roster
These guys know their stuff. As much as I don't like to admit it, they are most likely right. Just from a common sense standpoint, teams that have huge turnarounds have at least a little luck involved and that luck may or may not be there this year. I don't mean it was all luck, but it was a contributing factor. However, I also believe that we are a better team than last year and may not need as many lucky breaks to get to 11 wins, which it might take to make the playoffs again this year.
Very good site but they blunder by focusing too much on individual players, the fantasy obsession. They also seem to be clueless regarding situational influence from week to week. Talent dictates in college sports but pro outcomes can vary dramatically based on situation.
It reminds me of top horse racing analysts about 30 years ago, embracing speed figures when they were new, as if they were absolutes. It took decades before many of them weaved in "trip handicapping," i.e. how the race unfolded to produce that speed figure. Football Outsiders foolishly consider every week to be equivalent.
Anyway, the one question/answer was undeniably accurate, and relevant:
"Matty: The book points out how teams that go from 4 or fewer wins one season and ten or more the next see an average drop off of 2.7 wins the following season. But aren't there too many variables for that stat to even be meaningful?
Sean: People underestimate just how powerful a factor regression to the mean can be. The reality is that a 1-15 team is usually a 4-12 team that caught some bad breaks and a 14-2 team is usually a team that had everything go its way. When a team makes a huge leap the way the Dolphins did, some of that is because of genuine improvement, but some of that is also going to be due to other factors..."
***
Indeed, regression to the mean is massive. In all sports. The tendency of the typical fan is to overreact to the most recent outcome or trend, i.e., "They are playing GREAT!"
Give me a very good team that has been playing sub par, versus an above average team that has been playing great. I'll take my chances on true ability kicking in when I need it.
It reminds me of top horse racing analysts about 30 years ago, embracing speed figures when they were new, as if they were absolutes. It took decades before many of them weaved in "trip handicapping," i.e. how the race unfolded to produce that speed figure. Football Outsiders foolishly consider every week to be equivalent.
Anyway, the one question/answer was undeniably accurate, and relevant:
"Matty: The book points out how teams that go from 4 or fewer wins one season and ten or more the next see an average drop off of 2.7 wins the following season. But aren't there too many variables for that stat to even be meaningful?
Sean: People underestimate just how powerful a factor regression to the mean can be. The reality is that a 1-15 team is usually a 4-12 team that caught some bad breaks and a 14-2 team is usually a team that had everything go its way. When a team makes a huge leap the way the Dolphins did, some of that is because of genuine improvement, but some of that is also going to be due to other factors..."
***
Indeed, regression to the mean is massive. In all sports. The tendency of the typical fan is to overreact to the most recent outcome or trend, i.e., "They are playing GREAT!"
Give me a very good team that has been playing sub par, versus an above average team that has been playing great. I'll take my chances on true ability kicking in when I need it.
Coaching is more a factor for the NFL than any other professional sport. You have to get 22 players playing together on offense and defense. And then you add the special teams units.
Anyone gets hurt you need the good coaching to coach up the backups to play.
There's just so much that goes into coaching and coaching decisions within a game that determines success in the NFL. The Dolphins have some great coaching, that was evident a year ago. This team will not be out coached.
Having some of the best coaching in the NFL is like having an extra player on the field that other teams don't have.
Anyone gets hurt you need the good coaching to coach up the backups to play.
There's just so much that goes into coaching and coaching decisions within a game that determines success in the NFL. The Dolphins have some great coaching, that was evident a year ago. This team will not be out coached.
Having some of the best coaching in the NFL is like having an extra player on the field that other teams don't have.