no you make good points. I'm just going by not thinking that everything that can go wrong will go wrong. I'm talking about in a normal season without having your top 5 players get hurt, 10 wins would be a let down.I get that. My concern is the magic number. For an extreme example, if X, BJones, TT, and the R1 rookie W suffer injuries and the OCs prove to be abysmal, but the team still wins 10, I'd consider that success. If two losses are by last second FGs to teams with 11+ wins, but Miami only wins 10, that, IMO, is success. I guess the difference is I can see 'success' as something other than a specific win total. Given that, we'll just respectfully disagree.