chadproton
Active Roster
After seeing a few haters online claiming that Grier is trash, I got to thinking about what the expectations should be for a GM and how Grier has performed. It seems that he has managed the salary cap pretty well as the team goes through a tear down and rebuild phase. With a young team full of rookie contracts he has a lot of flexibility for the next couple of years. I don't have a great grasp on his management free agency, but it does seem like he has been careful not to overpay for free agents. Even the Byron Jones contract looks pretty good in light of contracts that other CBs got since then. I think we can all agree the Tunsil trade was a huge win for Grier.
I will preface this next part by saying I know the draft can be quite a crapshoot and everybody is just making their best educated guesses based on the teams needs at the time, but I think we can still ask how good is our GM at making those educated guesses? With that said, here's a look at Miami's drafts since Grier became GM in 2016.
2016: 8 picks total, Tunsil, X. Howard, Drake and Grant (say what you will about Grant as a WR, but his value for a 6th round pick has been very good). WR Leonte Carroo (12 career receptions) was drafted in the 3rd round. Notable players drafted after him include Tyler Higbee, Dak Prescott and Tyreek Hill. I think it's fair to say Grier hit on 4/8 picks, with a big dud in the 3rd round.
2017: 7 picks total. Not going to be a very memorable draft. Charles Harris #22 overall. (Tre'Davious White was #27, TJ Watt was #30). Raekwon McMillan in the 2nd, Davon Godchaux in the 5th, Isaiah Ford in the 7th. Notable players in this draft: Kamara, Kupp and Hunt all in the 3rd, Kittle and Aaron Jones in the 5th.
2018: 8 picks total. This was a very successful draft with 6/8 players becoming stars at best, decent contributors at worst. Minkah, Gesicki, Baker, Smythe, Ballage and Sanders all in this class. Chase Edmunds was drafted 3 spots after Ballage. Zach Sieler was pick #238, coming after ALL of Miami's picks. The Gase era ends. Praise Jesus!
2019: 6 picks total, no 2nd rnd and no 4th rnd. I think this is a solid draft, but it must be noted the 2 O line picks were disappointing. Wilkins at #13 overall. Time will tell if he is worthy of being selected that high. Personally I love the guy but the jury is still out on the value returned on the pick. Dieter in the 3rd has been disappointing although it may still be too soon to call him a bust. Nate Davis (same position) was drafted 4 spots after Dieter. He started all season for the Titans and is credited with giving up only 1 sack. AVG was our 5th round pick and looks like a steal. Isaiah Prince and Chandler Cox didn't pan out. Myles Gaskin was #234 in the 7th round. He was great this year and very likely will enter 2021 at #1 on the depth chart. D.K. Metcalf was the last pick of the 2nd round and the 9th WR selected.
2020: 11 picks total! Grier has to be given some credit for cutting deals that allowed him to stockpile 12 picks, one of which landed us Matt Brieda via trade. Obviously it's way too early to give this draft a fair grade but we can say that Grier made a huge effort to rebuild the O line after drafting what will hopefully prove to be our franchise QB at #5 overall. And while there were a few people who were convinced the team would stay at #5 and that Tua would be the pick, there was quite a smoke screen going and plenty of rumors surrounding what the Dolphins might do. Credit Grier with correctly deducing that he could get Tua at 5 without having to trade up to outmaneuver other teams. The offensive line picks show promise despite struggling in their first year. Raekwon Davis and Brandon Jones did fairly well as rookies on the defensive side, Strowbridge has apparently struggled to make the leap to pro ball, time will tell if he can or not. Weaver in the 5th round was a lost pick. I will be interested if he will progress in Cleveland and stick around in the league. Given the high quality of the special teams play the first 15 weeks of 2020, Ferguson proved himself worthy of being selected in the 6h round. Malcolm Perry has managed to hang on to a roster spot through the season although perhaps that was just for insurance as an emergency QB with the covid situation. A nice pickup adding Bowden during camp after the Raiders couldn't find the right fit for him. The Dolphins and Grier have a lot riding on their choices in this draft, particularly the selections of Tua and Igbo. There were A LOT of quality players available when Grier selected Igbo at #30 so if he does not become at least a reliable every down player, that will be seen as a huge mistake. Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Chase Claypool and JK Dobbins were all still available when Hunt was selected in the 2nd round. I will forever wonder if Dobbins would have become a Dolphin if he was not taken 1 spot before our #56 pick. Antonio Gibson was still available at that point, but maybe have been a reach at #56.
It's worth remembering that Stefon Diggs and D-Hop both got traded this off season and Grier missed out on both. It's a bit unclear how much BOB shopped Hopkins around considering the price he got and the fact that there was no suspicion of it outside the league until after the deal was made. Looking at both trades it's hard to imagine that Miami could not have made a very competitive offer for either superstar WR. Brandin Cooks also got traded, catching 81 balls for over 1100 yards while trying to fill D-Hops shoes in Houston.
Outlook for 2021: Currently own 7 picks, 4 of those in the top 50 starting with #3 overall. With that draft capital plus having the 8th most cap space to work with, Grier can operate from a position of strength this off season. He has to figure out how to deal with the DPOY feeling undervalued because he's not the highest paid player at his position on his own team. Grier must do his due diligence exploring the possibility of adding Deshaun Watson to the roster. He needs to find a new offensive coordinator (the 3rd OC paired with Flores in 3 years) and he must determine which free agents are worthy of pursuing and at what price in a year with a shrinking salary cap and a number of other teams will have their hands tied by being over the cap already.
I would love to see what other fans think of Grier, particularly his handling of free agency so far and his personnel moves.
I will preface this next part by saying I know the draft can be quite a crapshoot and everybody is just making their best educated guesses based on the teams needs at the time, but I think we can still ask how good is our GM at making those educated guesses? With that said, here's a look at Miami's drafts since Grier became GM in 2016.
2016: 8 picks total, Tunsil, X. Howard, Drake and Grant (say what you will about Grant as a WR, but his value for a 6th round pick has been very good). WR Leonte Carroo (12 career receptions) was drafted in the 3rd round. Notable players drafted after him include Tyler Higbee, Dak Prescott and Tyreek Hill. I think it's fair to say Grier hit on 4/8 picks, with a big dud in the 3rd round.
2017: 7 picks total. Not going to be a very memorable draft. Charles Harris #22 overall. (Tre'Davious White was #27, TJ Watt was #30). Raekwon McMillan in the 2nd, Davon Godchaux in the 5th, Isaiah Ford in the 7th. Notable players in this draft: Kamara, Kupp and Hunt all in the 3rd, Kittle and Aaron Jones in the 5th.
2018: 8 picks total. This was a very successful draft with 6/8 players becoming stars at best, decent contributors at worst. Minkah, Gesicki, Baker, Smythe, Ballage and Sanders all in this class. Chase Edmunds was drafted 3 spots after Ballage. Zach Sieler was pick #238, coming after ALL of Miami's picks. The Gase era ends. Praise Jesus!
2019: 6 picks total, no 2nd rnd and no 4th rnd. I think this is a solid draft, but it must be noted the 2 O line picks were disappointing. Wilkins at #13 overall. Time will tell if he is worthy of being selected that high. Personally I love the guy but the jury is still out on the value returned on the pick. Dieter in the 3rd has been disappointing although it may still be too soon to call him a bust. Nate Davis (same position) was drafted 4 spots after Dieter. He started all season for the Titans and is credited with giving up only 1 sack. AVG was our 5th round pick and looks like a steal. Isaiah Prince and Chandler Cox didn't pan out. Myles Gaskin was #234 in the 7th round. He was great this year and very likely will enter 2021 at #1 on the depth chart. D.K. Metcalf was the last pick of the 2nd round and the 9th WR selected.
2020: 11 picks total! Grier has to be given some credit for cutting deals that allowed him to stockpile 12 picks, one of which landed us Matt Brieda via trade. Obviously it's way too early to give this draft a fair grade but we can say that Grier made a huge effort to rebuild the O line after drafting what will hopefully prove to be our franchise QB at #5 overall. And while there were a few people who were convinced the team would stay at #5 and that Tua would be the pick, there was quite a smoke screen going and plenty of rumors surrounding what the Dolphins might do. Credit Grier with correctly deducing that he could get Tua at 5 without having to trade up to outmaneuver other teams. The offensive line picks show promise despite struggling in their first year. Raekwon Davis and Brandon Jones did fairly well as rookies on the defensive side, Strowbridge has apparently struggled to make the leap to pro ball, time will tell if he can or not. Weaver in the 5th round was a lost pick. I will be interested if he will progress in Cleveland and stick around in the league. Given the high quality of the special teams play the first 15 weeks of 2020, Ferguson proved himself worthy of being selected in the 6h round. Malcolm Perry has managed to hang on to a roster spot through the season although perhaps that was just for insurance as an emergency QB with the covid situation. A nice pickup adding Bowden during camp after the Raiders couldn't find the right fit for him. The Dolphins and Grier have a lot riding on their choices in this draft, particularly the selections of Tua and Igbo. There were A LOT of quality players available when Grier selected Igbo at #30 so if he does not become at least a reliable every down player, that will be seen as a huge mistake. Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Chase Claypool and JK Dobbins were all still available when Hunt was selected in the 2nd round. I will forever wonder if Dobbins would have become a Dolphin if he was not taken 1 spot before our #56 pick. Antonio Gibson was still available at that point, but maybe have been a reach at #56.
It's worth remembering that Stefon Diggs and D-Hop both got traded this off season and Grier missed out on both. It's a bit unclear how much BOB shopped Hopkins around considering the price he got and the fact that there was no suspicion of it outside the league until after the deal was made. Looking at both trades it's hard to imagine that Miami could not have made a very competitive offer for either superstar WR. Brandin Cooks also got traded, catching 81 balls for over 1100 yards while trying to fill D-Hops shoes in Houston.
Outlook for 2021: Currently own 7 picks, 4 of those in the top 50 starting with #3 overall. With that draft capital plus having the 8th most cap space to work with, Grier can operate from a position of strength this off season. He has to figure out how to deal with the DPOY feeling undervalued because he's not the highest paid player at his position on his own team. Grier must do his due diligence exploring the possibility of adding Deshaun Watson to the roster. He needs to find a new offensive coordinator (the 3rd OC paired with Flores in 3 years) and he must determine which free agents are worthy of pursuing and at what price in a year with a shrinking salary cap and a number of other teams will have their hands tied by being over the cap already.
I would love to see what other fans think of Grier, particularly his handling of free agency so far and his personnel moves.
