It seems like UDAs make teams more often then late round picks | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

It seems like UDAs make teams more often then late round picks

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Is this true? Do undrafted free agents make teams more often then 6th & 7th round picks? I know the Bears have a few and I think at least a couple are gonna make the Dolphins, especiall​y if Hogan is one of them.

---------- Post added at 02:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:24 PM ----------

'more often THAN' (not 'then'). My bad
 
It may be because late round picks are forced onto a team where as UDFA's can pick which situation they think they have the best chance in.
 
That is a testament to any teams scouting dept and their ability to develop these types of players. So far it seems almost every year since 2008 1 or 2 make the Dolphins. This year could be the exception with as many as 4-5 IF; Wallace, Pruitt and Marlon Moore or any combo of the 3, Finally make the 53 man roster. Samuda and Shelby seem to have a leg up on making the 2012 team. I think Freeny showed some good things on the 2nd string defense against Tampa, and figure if he is released, he'll get picked up by another team. IF not, he should get another chance to return to Miami's practice squad and continue his development.
 
Usually it ends up that they are roll players and special teams players as well as depth. Occasionally you have the Zach Thomas's who are pro bowl players in the later rounds. Davone Bess was UDFA and he made the most of it but he isn't a pro bowler and probably never will be unless Tannehill lights it up.

Jimmy Wilson has some upside right now but still has a lot of work to do, the same can be said about this Chris Hogan (I am guessing this is where the thread stemmed from). If Chris wants to make the roster he has a long road ahead of him and needs to make it count during game time.

I think the odds of your 1st and 2nd rounder making it the first year are 100%. Round 3 is 90% and round 4 is 85% after that the odds drop a lot, 5 and 6 70% and 7 and UDFA 50% chance. Of course this is my opinion and based of my best guess, here is an article on the subject:

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1180349.html
 
I think it just seems that way because the UDFA is a Cinderella story that gets highly publicized. Keep in mind that for every UDFA like Bess, there are dozens every year that you've never heard of.
 
I agree with the poster who said UDFA get to pick their teams and opportunities. They get to pick teams that have holes at their position where as a lot of the late round picks are picked because they are the best value on the board and not because they are the best fit.
 
NY8123 said:
Usually it ends up that they are roll players and special teams players as well as depth. Occasionally you have the Zach Thomas's who are pro bowl players in the later rounds. Davone Bess was UDFA and he made the most of it but he isn't a pro bowler and probably never will be unless Tannehill lights it up.

Jimmy Wilson has some upside right now but still has a lot of work to do, the same can be said about this Chris Hogan (I am guessing this is where the thread stemmed from). If Chris wants to make the roster he has a long road ahead of him and needs to make it count during game time.

I think the odds of your 1st and 2nd rounder making it the first year are 100%. Round 3 is 90% and round 4 is 85% after that the odds drop a lot, 5 and 6 70% and 7 and UDFA 50% chance. Of course this is my opinion and based of my best guess, here is an article on the subject:

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1180349.html
Click to expand...

The raio of making the team for UDFA's is way below 50%. A higher % of 6th and 7th rounders make the team, but there are a lot more UDFA's signed in a given year, so it may end up that more of them make the team, even though the hit rate is lower
 
Davone Bess being a UDFA was CRIMINAL. Just, after Hawaii got destroyed by Georgia people realized that Hawaii beat up on weak opponents. Then Bess ran a bad 40 time at the combine, and was short so people thought he benefitted from the Run and Shoot. He did, but anybody who watched him knew he was by far the best WR on Hawaii and he was gonna be good in the pros.

Shelby, from everything I've read, probably should have been drafted. Samuda just seems to be surprising people with his ability to play Center.

As for the odds, here is how I view the draft. If you draft somebody in the top 4 rounds, you draft them with the intent of them being either a starter or a heavy contributor right away or within a year or 2 (QB's being the exception). From my observation (which could be completely off base) there are a lot of prospects between round 5-7 drafted who are drafted more out of potential while the UDFA's tend to be prospects that lack much upside but are more polished.
 
The talent pool is essentially the same between the prospects that go undrafted, and the last 100 picks of the draft. The numbers suggest that more UDFA's will make rosters in the NFL than late round picks because there's substantially more UDFA's in camps than there are late round picks.

The UDFA's have a better opportunity because they get to choose where to go based on where they feel they have the best chance to make a roster. Most prospects who haven't heard their name called by the time the 6th/7th rounds come along hope to go undrafted at that point so they can choose where to go.
 
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