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J-Off's Caught Stealing (best values of 2017 NFL Draft)

j-off-her-doll

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With the HOF Game on the horizon, I thought it'd be a fun time to look at the picks I expect to yield the greatest returns. Due to time constraints, I'm posting the list, and I'll update it with my thoughts on each pick (and fit) as I'm able.

We're going to start in the 7th RD and count down to the 1st. I'm not doing UDFA's. You'll notice that certain rounds only have a few players. I didn't approach this with quotas in mind. And, the NFL did a pretty good job of scooping up high-end talent before the final rounds, but I think a few slipped through the cracks. We'll get to those now. Enjoy!

ef4be9392c83b39a6aaa8210f3e34a01-original.jpg


7th RD

It's not impossible to find Pro Bowl/All Pro talent in the 7th, but, for obvious reasons, it's rare. These guys have starter potential.

243. Houston - Kyle Fuller C Baylor - Fuller has the body and athleticism to fill in at OG if need be. He has very long arms for an interior OL, and Maurkice Pouncey is one of his closest athletic comps. He's raw in his technique, but, at Baylor, he showed flashes of dominance and the ability to move to the second level. Of the players drafted in the 7th, I think he has the best shot, even if it's a small one, to develop into a Pro Bowl player. I expected him to go in the 3rd-5th range. I listed him as potential target for Miami at 97 - in a grouping with Pocic and Elflein.

237. Miami - Isaiah Ford WR Virginia Tech - While Ford's speed limits what you can do with him at WR, he shows good burst coming out of his breaks, and he's shown the ability to high point the ball and make contested catches. Successful WR's come in many shapes and sizes. I think Ford fell, because he's awkward to watch, but he knows how to win, and he won consistently at Virginia Tech. Like Fuller, I thought he should have went in the 3rd-5th range. Miami really didn't need another WR, but reports say they viewed him as too good to bypass in the 7th. I don't have any gripe with this pick, but if I wanted to nitpick, Fuller offered similar value at a position of need for Miami.

232. Minnesota - Elijah Lee LB Kansas St - Lee reminds me a bit of Telvin Smith. He makes a lot of tackles, is a limited athlete but has plus traits (burst). He covers well and has shown the ability to make plays on the ball. Even by WLB standards, he doesn't deal with blockers particularly well, but he should be a solid, sub-package LB for Minnesota early in his career, and I had him grouped with LB's who went off the board much earlier (Duke Riley and Alex Anzalone to name a couple).

6th RD

211. New England - Connor McDermott OT UCLA
209. Washington - Robert Davis WR Georgia St
201. Minnesota - Bucky Hodges TE Virginia Tech
191. Dallas - Xavier Woods S Louisiana Tech
186. Baltimore - Chuck Clark S Virginia Tech

5th RD

184. Philadelphia - Nate Gerry S Nebraska
182. Green Bay - Aaron Jones RB UTEP
161. Indianapolis - Anthony Walker Jr LB Northwestern
152. Carolina - Corn Elder CB Miami
151. Los Angeles Chargers - Desmond King CB Iowa
148. Jacksonville - Blair Brown LB Ohio
146. San Francisco - George Kittle TE Iowa
145. Denver - Jake Butt TE Michigan

4th RD

131. New England - Deatrich Wise Jr DE Arkansas
117. Los Angeles Rams - Josh Reynolds WR Texas A&M
115. Arizona - Dorian Johnson OG Pittsburgh
113. Los Angeles Chargers - Rayshawn Jenkins S Miami
108. Green Bay - Vince Biegel OL Wisconsin

3rd RD

103. New Orleans - Trey Hendrickson DE Florida Atlantic
100. Tennessee - Jonnu Smith TE Florida International
93. Green Bay - Montravius Adams DT Auburn
90. Seattle - Shaquill Griffin CB Central Florida
89. Houston - D'Onta Foreman RB Texas
84. Tampa Bay - Chris Godwin WR Penn St
83. New England - Derek Rivers DE Youngstown St
77. Carolina - Daeshon Hall DE Texas A&M
74. Baltimore - Chris Wormley DE/DT Michigan
73. Cincinnati - Jordan Willis DE Kansas St
72. Tennessee - Taywan Taylor WR Western Kentucky
71. Los Angeles Chargers - Dan Feeney OG Indiana
66. San Francisco - Ahkello Witherspoon CB Colorado

2nd RD

57. Houston - Zach Cunningham LB Vanderbilt
54. Miami - Raekwon McMillan LB Ohio St
47. Baltimore - Tyus Bowser OLB Houston
42. New Orleans - Marcus Williams S Utah
34. Jacksonville - Cam Robinson OT Alabama

1st RD

30. Pittsburgh - TJ Watt OLB Wisconsin
29. Cleveland - David Njoku TE Miami
19. Tampa Bay - OJ Howard TE Alabama
14. Indianapolis - Malik Hooker S Ohio St
12. Houston - Deshaun Watson QB Clemson
 
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Pachyderm_Wave

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Predictably for me at least, reports out of 49ers camp aren't good for C.J. Beathard or Akhello Witherspoon. I didn't like either of em....neither were on my board. I've always felt Lynch would rue those two picks.

Meanwhile, I think Rueben Foster had two pick-sixes in the first 3 days of camp.

Taco Charlton has been a dud as a pass rusher in Cowboys camp also. Again, no surprise there. Conversely, no surprise that DeMarcus Walker has been on fire as a pass rusher in Broncos camp...both at DL and linebacker.

Tre'Davious White has been very impressive in Bills camp. As I said on draft day, he's the guy I would've taken for Miami in the 1st round.

As long as he doesn't get hurt or something Christian McCaffrey should be right there among the top 2 or 3 for NFC offensive ROY award when the season is over. Along with O.J. Howard.
 

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Great list. Did you rate Asiata as a 5th round steal, or is that in the range you saw him going?
 

j-off-her-doll

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Predictably for me at least, reports out of 49ers camp aren't good for C.J. Beathard or Akhello Witherspoon. I didn't like either of em....neither were on my board. I've always felt Lynch would rue those two picks.

Meanwhile, I think Rueben Foster had two pick-sixes in the first 3 days of camp.

Taco Charlton has been a dud as a pass rusher in Cowboys camp also. Again, no surprise there. Conversely, no surprise that DeMarcus Walker has been on fire as a pass rusher in Broncos camp...both at DL and linebacker.

Tre'Davious White has been very impressive in Bills camp. As I said on draft day, he's the guy I would've taken for Miami in the 1st round.

As long as he doesn't get hurt or something Christian McCaffrey should be right there among the top 2 or 3 for NFC offensive ROY award when the season is over. Along with O.J. Howard.

I can definitely see why you'd dislike Witherspoon's game. His lack of physicality at Colorado was pretty appalling, but his combination of length and athleticism are relatively rare, and I was impressed with his ability to mirror (think I posted a gif of him sticking with John Ross a few months ago). Because of the lack of physicality, he has higher bust potential, and you could well be right to leave him off your board. He's a mixed bag of extremes, and I'll be curious to see which win out. No idea how Betherd was drafted.

Agree on McCaffrey. If Howard is in the running it'll be very impressive, and I wouldn't bet against his talent (should have gone top-10). Don't think Fournette has the situation to do enough in Jacksonville, but he has a shot. Deshaun Watson is probably my favorite to win it. With that D, he should be able to maintain a patient approach, and his playmaking ability isn't in question. Also, Houston should win that division if he plays well.

White is a great fit in McDermott's D.

Not surprised that Taco is struggling. I expect that to be a career-long thing. Deatrich Wise is getting run with the 1's in NE, and he should have a better career than Chalrton.

Cleveland had a chance to be good-ish in 2017 - at least toward the end of the season. Garrett and Ogbah probably won't be a top pair right away, but with an eye on the future, they should be one of the top 2 or 3 pass-rushing duos for the next 5+ years. Peppers has already received some very positive reports, as well.
 

j-off-her-doll

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Great list. Did you rate Asiata as a 5th round steal, or is that in the range you saw him going?

I thought it was appropriate value for Asiata. Because of his age, there's not as much room for improvement, and he came with questions about his balance and athleticism. He's very physical, but I wasn't as high on him as most of the board.
 

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Great stuff, J. As with all your information and research, it is much appreciated and enjoyed.
 

nick1

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Stacy Coley was a steal too man

 

nick1

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Unrelated but here's the guy we missed on. Derek Barnett


 

Pachyderm_Wave

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Unrelated but here's the guy we missed on. Derek Barnett



I don't know if Miami missed on him or not, as he was already gone when Miami picked and I have no knowledge of what their plans were on draft day.

However, Charles Harris is not and never was in Derek Barnett's category. I don't care how happy Miami was to get him. I had Barnett #11 overall on my board and Harris #57 overall.

I also felt like Demarcus Walker and Jordan Willis were both better prospects than Harris, and both look better to me for their respective teams. It's awful early, but I'm just not a Charles Harris guy. He's ok, just feel like I could've done better with that pick.
 

nick1

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I don't know if Miami missed on him or not, as he was already gone when Miami picked and I have no knowledge of what their plans were on draft day.

However, Charles Harris is not and never was in Derek Barnett's category. I don't care how happy Miami was to get him. I had Barnett #11 overall on my board and Harris #57 overall.

I also felt like Demarcus Walker and Jordan Willis were both better prospects than Harris, and both look better to me for their respective teams. It's awful early, but I'm just not a Charles Harris guy. He's ok, just feel like I could've done better with that pick.
Rumor was Barnett was the highest guy on our board, or at least one of the highest.
 

Pachyderm_Wave

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With the HOF Game on the horizon, I thought it'd be a fun time to look at the picks I expect to yield the greatest returns. Due to time constraints, I'm posting the list, and I'll update it with my thoughts on each pick (and fit) as I'm able.

We're going to start in the 7th RD and count down to the 1st. I'm not doing UDFA's. You'll notice that certain rounds only have a few players. I didn't approach this with quotas in mind. And, the NFL did a pretty good job of scooping up high-end talent before the final rounds, but I think a few slipped through the cracks. We'll get to those now. Enjoy!

ef4be9392c83b39a6aaa8210f3e34a01-original.jpg


7th RD

It's not impossible to find Pro Bowl/All Pro talent in the 7th, but, for obvious reasons, it's rare. These guys have starter potential.

243. Houston - Kyle Fuller C Baylor - Fuller has the body and athleticism to fill in at OG if need be. He has very long arms for an interior OL, and Maurkice Pouncey is one of his closest athletic comps. He's raw in his technique, but, at Baylor, he showed flashes of dominance and the ability to move to the second level. Of the players drafted in the 7th, I think he has the best shot, even if it's a small one, to develop into a Pro Bowl player. I expected him to go in the 3rd-5th range. I listed him as potential target for Miami at 97 - in a grouping with Pocic and Elflein.

237. Miami - Isaiah Ford WR Virginia Tech - While Ford's speed limits what you can do with him at WR, he shows good burst coming out of his breaks, and he's shown the ability to high point the ball and make contested catches. Successful WR's come in many shapes and sizes. I think Ford fell, because he's awkward to watch, but he knows how to win, and he won consistently at Virginia Tech. Like Fuller, I thought he should have went in the 3rd-5th range. Miami really didn't need another WR, but reports say they viewed him as too good to bypass in the 7th. I don't have any gripe with this pick, but if I wanted to nitpick, Fuller offered similar value at a position of need for Miami.

232. Minnesota - Elijah Lee LB Kansas St - Lee reminds me a bit of Telvin Smith. He makes a lot of tackles, is a limited athlete but has plus traits (burst). He covers well and has shown the ability to make plays on the ball. Even by WLB standards, he doesn't deal with blockers particularly well, but he should be a solid, sub-package LB for Minnesota early in his career, and I had him grouped with LB's who went off the board much earlier (Duke Riley and Alex Anzalone to name a couple).

6th RD

211. New England - Connor McDermott OT UCLA
209. Washington - Robert Davis WR Georgia St
201. Minnesota - Bucky Hodges TE Virginia Tech
191. Dallas - Xavier Woods S Louisiana Tech
186. Baltimore - Chuck Clark S Virginia Tech

5th RD

184. Philadelphia - Nate Gerry S Nebraska
182. Green Bay - Aaron Jones RB UTEP
161. Indianapolis - Anthony Walker Jr LB Northwestern
152. Carolina - Corn Elder CB Miami
151. Los Angeles Chargers - Desmond King CB Iowa
148. Jacksonville - Blair Brown LB Ohio
146. San Francisco - George Kittle TE Iowa
145. Denver - Jake Butt TE Michigan

4th RD

131. New England - Deatrich Wise Jr DE Arkansas
117. Los Angeles Rams - Josh Reynolds WR Texas A&M
115. Arizona - Dorian Johnson OG Pittsburgh
113. Los Angeles Chargers - Rayshawn Jenkins S Miami
108. Green Bay - Vince Biegel OL Wisconsin

3rd RD

103. New Orleans - Trey Hendrickson DE Florida Atlantic
100. Tennessee - Jonnu Smith TE Florida International
93. Green Bay - Montravius Adams DT Auburn
90. Seattle - Shaquill Griffin CB Central Florida
89. Houston - D'Onta Foreman RB Texas
84. Tampa Bay - Chris Godwin WR Penn St
83. New England - Derek Rivers DE Youngstown St
77. Carolina - Daeshon Hall DE Texas A&M
74. Baltimore - Chris Wormley DE/DT Michigan
73. Cincinnati - Jordan Willis DE Kansas St
72. Tennessee - Taywan Taylor WR Western Kentucky
71. Los Angeles Chargers - Dan Feeney OG Indiana
66. San Francisco - Ahkello Witherspoon CB Colorado

2nd RD

57. Houston - Zach Cunningham LB Vanderbilt
54. Miami - Raekwon McMillan LB Ohio St
47. Baltimore - Tyus Bowser OLB Houston
42. New Orleans - Marcus Williams S Utah
34. Jacksonville - Cam Robinson OT Alabama

1st RD

30. Pittsburgh - TJ Watt OLB Wisconsin
29. Cleveland - David Njoku TE Miami
19. Tampa Bay - OJ Howard TE Alabama
14. Indianapolis - Malik Hooker S Ohio St
12. Houston - Deshaun Watson QB Clemson

T.J. Watt at #30 was ridiculous. I had him #7 overall.

No idea how these people drafting in the NFL manage to keep their jobs. 75% of GM's in the NFL are mostly clueless when it comes to evaluating college talent. There's only a handful that really know what they're doing, and those are the ones that have kept their positions for a long time. It's not the same as evaluating players who are already in the NFL.

Think T.J. Watt just had 2 sacks before the national anthem was over.
 

j-off-her-doll

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T.J. Watt at #30 was ridiculous. I had him #7 overall.

No idea how these people drafting in the NFL manage to keep their jobs. 75% of GM's in the NFL are mostly clueless when it comes to evaluating college talent. There's only a handful that really know what they're doing, and those are the ones that have kept their positions for a long time. It's not the same as evaluating players who are already in the NFL.

Think T.J. Watt just had 2 sacks before the national anthem was over.

Yes sir! You and I were the only people I saw putting him in the top 10 - though, I know CK was high on him, too (just don't know where he had him). His combination of athleticism, power, tenacity, and pedigree was just too much.

Jordan Willis also with a sack and a few tackles.
 

Pachyderm_Wave

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Rumor was Barnett was the highest guy on our board, or at least one of the highest.

I won't accuse 'em of missing out on Barnett based on rumors from sports journalists. Like I said, I don't know what their plan was.

Although I do feel like they missed out on Walker, Willis, Foster, Watt, and White. They were available. I would've taken all 5 before Harris.
 
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