J-Off's Caught Stealing (best values of 2017 NFL Draft) | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

J-Off's Caught Stealing (best values of 2017 NFL Draft)

Jordan Willis is who I was hoping we would've drafted. I'm no draft guru, nor am I even close to one. I was just going off a gut feeling I had on him, and usually when I get a gut feeling on a player, my feelings are right over 95% of the time. So I guess I'll find out soon enough if my gut was right on him or not.
 
I don't wanna seem like I'm dumping on Harris. He beat his man consistently Thursday, as a DE that doesnt always end in sacks but if you keep doing it they will come. And the kid is a sponge, JT said he was the first guy to ever ask him to watch film with him
 
nick1 said:
Stacy Coley was a steal too man
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No kidding. I mentioned Coley several times early in the draft process, specifically when he was slated to play in that East-West Shrine Game or whatever it was.

Coley was a gliding superstar as a freshman with the Canes. Receiving and returns. He reminded me of a poor man's John Stallworth and I all but conceded he'd be gone as a first round pick after three years. That was also the consensus on Canes forums. Then I can't really figure out what happened the next couple of years. He always showed up huge against Florida State since there was still some bitterness there on the Tallahassee end. The Seminoles assumed they had him signed. Jimbo Fisher was absolutely stunned when Coley switched the Miami at the last minute. So Coley no doubt heard the digs against him when Florida State was winning or contending for titles while the program he chose was doing nothing except suffering through coaching controversy. He starred against Florida State but until some improvement his senior year he never resembled that freshman form again.

I always believe in concealed talent when available at bargain rate. This was a good example. There were not major injury concerns or off field problems. Just the opposite. He's always reported as a great kid and quite humble. Coley was fast at the combine but not the touted 4.3 stuff so his opportunity to reassert himself didn't happen.

Anyway, it's another example of one of my main themes -- major college later round sleepers instead of wasting time with mid level programs or especially the smaller schools. That may feel more satisfying when it clicks, like you've outsmarted the world, but who gives a damn? Too much burden is not sustainable. In the long run that approach is sacrificing margin for error instead of logically cheating to add a few percent to your likelihood. I'm hardly surprised Miami found a later gem from LSU. Gee, what a shock. That team always looks like the most talented team in the country man to man, just some rawness and undisciplined qualities. The places to look are schools that have been near the top of the recruiting rankings year after year but it hasn't fully translated to the won/loss record. Recent examples are LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Texas and Miami. I would always concentrate there. No matter what it looks like subjectively, it will probably turn out better.

***

Otherwise, I wasn't posting here at the time but Charles Harris was a major downer. It felt like a pick designed to remain in the middle of the pack. I posted that theme on some YouTube video comments and was attacked by Dolphin fans. Big deal.

I wanted TJ Watt with that pick. I also would have been happy with Kevin King. Mostly I had rooted for O.J. Howard to somehow slip to our slot but that seemed destined to be a tease.

Looking at other recent posts I think you guys are overly down on C.J. Beathard. I liked him as a 6th or 7th round flyer. I think I posted that here months before the draft. Good basic pro backup. I was beyond shocked where he was drafted.

I have a friend from Las Vegas who is a 49ers fan and has been throwing out the term "franchise quarterback." I thought he was kidding. But then I checked the 49ers boards and that phrase has been attached to Beathard repeatedly. It's nuts. He has low upside. Apparently John Lynch used the term or something similar and the fan base got carried away.
 
Speaking of Kevin King, Hollins treated him like his b*tch.

I don't know how Mack Hollins lasted until the 118th pick. I had him #53 overall and a 2nd round grade. Looks like another receiver steal from the 2017 draft.



 
Had a draftable grade on Akeem Judd, but he somehow went undrafted and signed with the Titans. Big powerful runner with good COD and elusiveness to make tacklers miss. Averaged over 10 yards/carry in his preseason debut with the Titans.



I used to watch him rip off IZ runs like this in the SEC...

http://www.ncaa.com/video/football/2015-10-31/fbs-highlights-ole-miss-auburn-akeem-judd-td



IZ runs like this against Florida St....





IZ runs like this against us...





Now watch him make the same IZ run here for the Titans...

http://www.titansonline.com/video/v...Big-Gain/c170d353-9315-4c9a-b66e-41fffe8ff7ca
 
j-off-her-doll said:
4th RD

131. New England - Deatrich Wise Jr DE Arkansas
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I want to point this one out, as you deserve a lot of credit for nailing this one all throughout the pre-draft process. I had Wise #231 overall and he went 100 picks earlier. But that's beside the point. Point is, he's been getting run with the 1's in New England and apparently Belicheck loves the kid.

Your eye for talent just baffles me sometimes. Well done.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Speaking of Kevin King, Hollins treated him like his b*tch.

I don't know how Mack Hollins lasted until the 118th pick. I had him #53 overall and a 2nd round grade. Looks like another receiver steal from the 2017 draft.



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His combination of size, toughness, and his ability to get in an out of his breaks at that size are not common. Every time I watched him at UNC, he dominated his opponent. I first noticed him when watching M. Alexander, and Hollins created separation with relative ease. I still don't understand how Hollins didn't put up big numbers at UNC. Any idea why he was so underutilized? I know they had other good WR's throughout his time there, but still!

In addition to being a fairly unique WR talent, he brings value on ST's. King is a big, athletic CB, and that play really highlights just how big, quick, and physical Hollins is. It feels like the 2017 class will have more early contributors than most classes produce. 2016 was a bit of a down year, but this class feels like it could stack up with 2011 and 2015.

Haven't had a chance to watch the game (brother is in town and not a football fan), but I've only read positive takes on Cam Robinson's first outing.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
I want to point this one out, as you deserve a lot of credit for nailing this one all throughout the pre-draft process. I had Wise #231 overall and he went 100 picks earlier. But that's beside the point. Point is, he's been getting run with the 1's in New England and apparently Belicheck loves the kid.

Your eye for talent just baffles me sometimes. Well done.
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Thank you, Slimm! I do still think there's some bust potential with Wise, but there aren't many true 4-3 DE's with his combination of length and agility. If I had to pick a perfect landing spot for him, it'd be NE. I noticed that they put almost zero priority on speed at DE, but they do prioritize length, and they seem to take an either/or approach to the jumps and agility drills. Jones and Wise both have 35"+ arms, and Flowers has 34"+ arms, but he had the longest wingspan of any DE in the 2015 Draft (if I remember correctly). I was higher on Flowers than I am Wise, but Wise probably has more pass-rush upside off the edge. I don't think he'll be the same kind of force as Flowers is kicking inside, though.

But, I've been picking your brain for years, and if there's a large disparity between your take on a player and my take, I typically have a sense of, 'Well, see how this goes.' Conversely, with a player like TJ Watt, who most people had in the 1st/2nd range, when I feel he's better than his consensus ranking, and I see that you also have him in the top 10, I take that as confirmation that I'm seeing the right things.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Zack Cunningham annihilated on an angle route out of the backfield by Rex Burkhead



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That's the part of his game I thought was overrated. He's not super rangy or quick. I thought he looked very good Week 1. His ability to defeat blocks, navigate traffic, and read the play quickly showed up, and he made a bunch of tackles near the LOS.

When asked to cover a guy with the burst and agility of Burkhead, he'll struggle. In fairness to Cunningham, not many LB's can cover Burkhead, but he's not the sideline-to-sideline/coverage LB many people tried to make him. Most of his missed tackles at Vanderbilt were on plays where he couldn't quite get there/didn't have to strength to make an arm tackle.
 
Jordan Willis had another good game. Blew by E. Fisher early, consistently applied pressure, collected another sack, and he made a really nice run stuff on 4th and 1. The Run D was much better when he was in the game. As Marvin Lewis said, he's a guy that always does the right thing. He got knocked by some for gathering his production against RT's at Kansas St, but he's been lining up at both DE spots for Cincinnati, and he was doing damage to KC's LT's. His timing on his spin move has not been good, but he looks to be improving in that area - saw his least-awkward spin move last night. If Cincinnati's DT's didn't play so poorly, Willis would have likely finished one or two more sacks; KC's QB's had ridiculously clean pockets, giving them plenty of room to step up.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
That's the part of his game I thought was overrated. He's not super rangy or quick. I thought he looked very good Week 1. His ability to defeat blocks, navigate traffic, and read the play quickly showed up, and he made a bunch of tackles near the LOS.

When asked to cover a guy with the burst and agility of Burkhead, he'll struggle. In fairness to Cunningham, not many LB's can cover Burkhead, but he's not the sideline-to-sideline/coverage LB many people tried to make him. Most of his missed tackles at Vanderbilt were on plays where he couldn't quite get there/didn't have to strength to make an arm tackle.
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This was just the first one. He was obliterated again by another angle route out of the backfield by D.J. Foster that resulted in another TD. He simply couldn't match up on either.

I'm pulling for the kid. Known him since high school, played against him in high school. I think it's great that a kid from little ol' Pinson has a shot at an NFL career. I want him to do well.

But his tackling issues were a real concern for me vs. Alvin Kamara. I talked about how it doesn't get any easier for him trying to stop these backs in the NFL. Things like this is what he'll face every week.

I was hoping he would stay in school one more year. I just never could see him being able to match up with backs at this level. It's going to be tough for him.
 
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