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JaMarr Chase

However one feels, isn't it close enough that an extra high draft pick or 2 sways it to the other guy? I think so, as long as the offers are there, which is not a sure thing.
 
ckparrothead said:
I've been really fascinated by something once I started to notice it, and it's how Ja'Marr Chase's best work from 2019 all seemed to happen against the lesser players in coverage against LSU.

I went back and watched his complete work against Pat Surtain Jr, C.J. Henderson, Cam Dantzler, Noah Igbinoghene, Parnell Motley, D.J. Daniel, A.J. Terrell, Eric Stokes, Roger McCreary, and Trevon Diggs.

Noah Igbinoghene: Ja'Marr Chase really only won one rep against Noah. It was a deep cross (sounds familiar, right?) where Joe Burrow was allowed to comfortably hold the ball for over three seconds while Chase ran the entire width of the football field with Noah about half a step behind him. Ball was perfect and Chase caught it with Igbinoghene breathing down his neck. That's a win for Chase. Nice play. Noah struggled repeatedly on the same routes against Stefon Diggs, and Diggs clearly created more separation on those routes. But that was really it for Chase's winning. Noah broke up two passes intended for Ja'Marr Chase. He also stopped Ja'Marr Chase dead in his tracks on a screen pass on 4th & 2 from the goal line. Noah held him up long enough for help to get there and take Chase down well shy of the end zone. It was a nice play by Igbinoghene. The thing I noticed with all the other coverage reps was how easily Noah seemed to stay in Chase's hip pocket.

Roger McCreary: During that Auburn game, the big plays Chase made, he did that on Roger McCreary. Those two had a nice battle. Chase won some big ones, and so he carries the day. But McCreary also won a big one as he out-muscled Chase one-on-one for an interception on a deep ball. He also showed some keen physicality in the red zone, disrupting Chase on his route and blanketing him.

Parnell Motley: I am comfortable with saying that Parnell Motley straight up won the duel. And that was after Ja'Marr Chase had talked sh-t about Motley to the press the week leading up to the game. You could tell those comments fired Parnell up and he went out there and performed. No catches. No won reps for Chase. Several times they were locked in man coverage and Burrow looked over that direction, he had to come off it and either move along with his reads or tuck the ball. One time, he did throw to Chase on Motley, and Parnell broke up the pass. It was a clean win for Motley. They did face off with one another plenty enough for Chase to get in his licks. He just...didn't.

Pat Surtain, Jr.: Surtain looked very comfortable covering Ja'Marr Chase. The latter DID catch two balls, but they were not clean wins against Surtain. One of them was a switch release where one of Chase's teammates chipped Surtain on the shoulder, freeing Chase up for the catch. That's not really a win for Ja'Marr. The other catch it looked like Surtain had deepest-man responsibility with outside leverage in one of Saban's coverages, and the safety to his inside got sucked up toward the line of scrimmage because Joe Burrow faked like he was going to do a keeper draw up the middle. You could see the underneath safety get sucked up and then pull an "oh sh-t" when Burrow stopped and passed the football to Chase on the in-breaking route. That's not really Surtain's fault. I could be wrong. If Surtain was in MEG then I'm wrong. But the rest of the day, Surtain had Ja'Marr blanketed. There was at least one more rep where they were manned up and Burrow looked that direction but had to tuck the football and run because it wasn't there. In order to do damage in this game, Chase had to flip over and face Trevon Diggs.

Trevon Diggs: Lost. And it was bad. Just, I don't even know what the hell he was doing out there. Give Chase this win cleanly. It impacted the game. Diggs's hips looked awful.

Cam Dantzler: Now, to be fair, the matchup with Cam Dantzler wasn't really much of a matchup at all. The two just didn't face off much in man. Dantzler was part of bracket coverage on Chase some of the time, and other times they were just on different sides. But you do have to give the win to Dantzler, though with the caveat it was on a low number of reps. While Chase did straight up beat Cam on a quick out with his physical strength, it was only a 6 yard play. It's a win, give it to him, but it wasn't a bad win. On the other hand, the two went vertical down the field in man, and Burrow threw it, but Dantzler had him all the way and it was very nearly intercepted. It was similar to that Roger McCreary interception, but Dantzler didn't finish it. Still a big win.

Eric Stokes: I have to say, Ja'Marr Chase created quite a bit of separation against Eric Stokes of Georgia, and with regularity. Stokes was getting jammed up all over the place trying to keep up with Chase's breaks. I think he fell to the ground two, maybe three times. On one of them, Chase ended up catching a TD in the back of the end zone. In Eric Stokes's defense, Joe Burrow had like 4 hours to finally throw that ball, and technically the defender trying to (unsuccessfully) break it up at the end was a safety, not Stokes. But the reason is because Stokes fell down trying to keep up with Chase's break, got up and tried to close on Ja'Marr like a screaming banshee, and fell off again as Chase decided to break the other direction on the scramble drill while the safety tried his best to catch up. I will say that Stokes did manage to break up a deep ball to Chase. But if you look at the All-22, I thought it was a clear win for Chase on the day.

D.J. Daniel: I thought D.J. Daniel did a much better job on Chase in that Georgia game than Stokes did. There was one play where Chase hit Daniel with a hard fake to the outside and then an inside move that left Daniel behind as Ja'Marr caught the ball and got some nice YAC. That was a nice win for Ja'Marr. But overall this matchup with Daniel felt a lot like the Noah Igbinoghene matchup, where Chase had one nice play for a medium gain, but then rep after rep after rep, the other guy won the rest of the way out. Daniel's game, the way he played Chase, it actually reminded me quite a bit of Parnell Motley. He showed good athleticism and hips, and for his weight class, he wasn't afraid to be physical with Chase. And it worked.

C.J. Henderson: This was a fun matchup and overall I thought Henderson won. I think he broke up three or four pass attempts during the game. He broke up the deep pass in the end zone. He was all over Chase on two in-breaking routes, breaking up one of them. Henderson broke up an underneath route. He jammed Chase hard at the line a couple times, really disrupting Chase and not letting him get into his route. Chase did a catch on a speed out versus Henderson's off coverage. I wouldn't count it at all, except that Henderson fell off the tackle. So that's a win for Chase on RAC, let's be fair. Really the only big win for Chase against Henderson's coverage was a run to daylight off RPO against Henderson playing 7 yards off him. Nothing fancy, just broke inside and the ball was on him right away and he secured it just before Henderson came through him to try and break it up. Henderson was late, and would call that a loss, especially as it was a TD, but there was nothing Chase did on the play to make Henderson lose. As for the big long TD everyone saw on the highlight reel, it wasn't a win for Chase. Henderson was picked hard on the switch release by Chase's teammate. That's a win for the blocker, not a win of Chase vs. Henderson. It was the same as the Surtain pick play that Chase caught.

A.J. Terrell: R.I.P.

Overall Impressions: I realize that Ja'Marr Chase was like 19 years old when he was doing his damage. I also realize that sometimes you've got to evaluate what the player is doing and what his traits are, not just keep a scorecard of the wins and losses. On both of those bases, as well as what Chase did to A.J. Terrell and Trevon Diggs, this is why Chase belongs as a good prospect. That said, this was a really somewhat concerning exercise. The guys with quick hips, speed, and physical WILL (even if they're not particularly big or strong) were keeping up with Chase in coverage and winning the reps. That includes D.J. Daniel, Noah Igbinoghene, C.J. Henderson, Parnell Motley, and Cam Dantzler. Yes, those are all NFL players. Well, at least I think Daniel might be an NFL player if he's got his mind right. But not all of them are necessarily good NFL players. So the fact Chase could look kind of mediocre against them rep after rep after rep...during the year when he was supposed to be this ungodly force of nature...isn't that a concern? It's enough to keep me focused on Devonta Smith. And probably enough to see me favoring Jaylen Waddle.
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He’s a fine prospect, but the question is, will he better than Smith when he’s 22.

Hands-Smith > Chase.
route running- Smith >Chase
Tactical separator- Smith > Chase, by a good margin.
Height\Length/Hand size Smith > Chase
Physicality- Chase>Smith
Speed- Smith >Chase
Catch radius- Smith>Chase
Character\Work ethic- I know how hard Smith Works, not sure about chase, took the year off.


Smith imo has the edge in most departments, Jamar reminds me of Jarvis Landry with better speed, which is a really good prospect But I would go with Smith, Smith was excelling every year with top competition on the team.Speed, wiry strong, hi level hands combined with excellent separation tactics..

NFL corners are gonna play these two the same at the next level because they both lack in stature, heavy press man and get your hands on them, imo, Smith has better moves to get around that obstacle.
 
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It all comes down to what traits you value. I find that many primarily value size/speed type measureables. I would say the NFL is guilty of that too and that that's why the bust rate at the top of the draft is so high, not just for WRs, but across all positions. I understand the allure of the "planet theory". It would be great if you could just look at a number and say "this guy will be a better player", but that's not how it works. I think a more effective tactic is to acquire players with the traits that have proven successful in the NFL most consistently. That's obviously more subjective, but it hits closer to the goal of just finding good football players.

Personally when it comes to WRs my top traits are separation and hands. I find that if a WR prospect can separate and catch the ball consistently, then his floor is very high and his ceiling is also high. I look at a guy like Antonio Brown. Crazy aside, he had a stretch where he was the best WR in football. He was basically uncoverable and playing at HOF clip. He was great at getting separation in all of his routes. He had great hands. (And of course, like all great players he was driven). Now coming out Brown was considered a marginal athlete. I think his 40 time was something like a 4.56 and he was 5'10" 185 lbs. He had no outstanding measurable. He had good college stats but it was at Central Michigan. He played great in the bowl game, but it was some lesser bowl. The NFL missed on him b/c they ignored the most important traits, ability to separate and hands. (And again, that drive which we can only guess at). I see those same traits in Smith, but with better measurables. Smith is taller at 6'1" but with a larger wingspan. Reportedly his arm length gives him the range of a 6'4" - 6'5" guy. Also he reportedly has disproportionately large hands. We don't know what he'll run, but most seem to guess it will be in the 4.4s or better. He also had a historically great college football season but he did it in the SEC. He excelled in the bowl game but it was the championship and against an expected first round CB. And when it comes to drive, he has the similar chip on his shoulder about always being considered to small and stories of him doing pushups between classes and running stadiums.

I like Chase and I have him as a great prospect, but his hands are not better than Smith's and he's definitely not as good at getting quick separation and separation in general on short and intermediate routes. I have Chase as a bit better at the catch point on deeper routes, but that's it. There's no way I see that as more important than getting quick separation, especially when one of Tua's greatest strengths is getting the ball out quickly and the NFL in general throws something like +90% of it's passes in the short and intermediate range. There's other things that I value: like Smith seems to be a more willing blocker and he already has Tua's trust and obvious chemistry that IMO make Smith a slam dunk better choice for Miami as well, but ability to separate and hands alone are enough for me to have a preference.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
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This is what I've been telling people who try and tell me that Ja'Marr Chase is faster than Devonta Smith. He's not.

Corners are very comfortable getting both hands on Chase at the line. He can make them pay with his STRENGTH, but the corners take that bet, because at the end of the day he's still only 200 lbs. They don't think he's going to make them pay for it with speed and quickness.

But with Devonta Smith, when they've tried, he's made them pay with speed and quickness consistently. They don't try as much because they can feel how quick and fast he is off the line and when they're trying to close.
 
I mean if you do the same exercise I did for Ja'Marr Chase except you do it with Devonta Smith, you're going to find that he torched guys like Derek Stingley (twice) and Jaycee Horn.

Smith and Noah Igbinoghene had a good battle, and Noah kept up with him on some attempts from Mac Jones that were mostly off the mark. But at the end of the day, Devonta nailed him with the out-and-up move for a big gain. He also got Noah with some savviness on a long catch-and-run for a touchdown by one of Smith's teammates. Smith ran right in front of Noah and then pumped the breaks, pulling off the legal block that sprung the long TD otherwise Igbinoghene was going to get the guy.

Smith and Cam Dantzler unfortunately didn't face off much. There was really just one rep the whole game. Smith won it, of course; an 8-yard comeback.

I mentioned that Parnell Motley blanked Ja'Marr Chase even after Chase talked sh-t about Motley to the press leading up to the game. Well, back in the Orange Bowl, Devonta Smith dragged Motley up and down the field. I had him taking advantage of Motley five times.
 
ckparrothead said:
I mean if you do the same exercise I did for Ja'Marr Chase except you do it with Devonta Smith, you're going to find that he torched guys like Derek Stingley (twice) and Jaycee Horn.

Smith and Noah Igbinoghene had a good battle, and Noah kept up with him on some attempts from Mac Jones that were mostly off the mark. But at the end of the day, Devonta nailed him with the out-and-up move for a big gain. He also got Noah with some savviness on a long catch-and-run for a touchdown by one of Smith's teammates. Smith ran right in front of Noah and then pumped the breaks, pulling off the legal block that sprung the long TD otherwise Igbinoghene was going to get the guy.

Smith and Cam Dantzler unfortunately didn't face off much. There was really just one rep the whole game. Smith won it, of course; an 8-yard comeback.

I mentioned that Parnell Motley blanked Ja'Marr Chase even after Chase talked sh-t about Motley to the press leading up to the game. Well, back in the Orange Bowl, Devonta Smith dragged Motley up and down the field. I had him taking advantage of Motley five times.
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What would you consider the worse loss?
  1. Trading Tua to the Texans
  2. Trading back and another team selecting Devanta Smith.
I ask this from an honest standpoint much more than a dig because it seems you will tow the line for your guy. I just want to see if it's research-driven or fanaticism.
 
I rate Chase and smith so closely that I would be happy with either guy.

IF passing up one to take the other nets the team a high draft pick then i am doing that and being thrilled with either.

I would be happy in a scenario like that with Waddle as well.
 
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djphinfan said:
He’s a fine prospect, but the question is, will he better than Smith when he’s 22.

Hands-Smith > Chase.
route running- Smith >Chase
Tactical separator- Smith > Chase, by a good margin.
Height\Length/Hand size Smith > Chase
Physicality- Chase>Smith
Speed- Smith >Chase
Catch radius- Smith>Chase
Character\Work ethic- I know how hard Smith Works, not sure about chase, took the year off.


Smith imo has the edge in most departments, Jamar reminds me of Jarvis Landry with better speed, which is a really good prospect But I would go with Smith, Smith was excelling every year with top competition on the team.Speed, wiry strong, hi level hands combined with excellent separation tactics..

NFL corners are gonna play these two the same at the next level because they both lack in stature, heavy press man and get your hands on them, imo, Smith has better moves to get around that obstacle.
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As you say there's more projection required with Chase. If you compare sophomore seasons there's a big advantage to Chase. It will depend on his character and coaching because his work ethic isn't in doubt from what I've seen.

It's just a shame Chase opted out and Waddle got injured. Incidentally Pitts would probably lead 4 of those categories, plus you have his run blocking. I just hope we get the right OC to use whoever we get.
 
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ckparrothead said:
I've been really fascinated by something once I started to notice it, and it's how Ja'Marr Chase's best work from 2019 all seemed to happen against the lesser players in coverage against LSU.

I went back and watched his complete work against Pat Surtain Jr, C.J. Henderson, Cam Dantzler, Noah Igbinoghene, Parnell Motley, D.J. Daniel, A.J. Terrell, Eric Stokes, Roger McCreary, and Trevon Diggs.

Noah Igbinoghene: Ja'Marr Chase really only won one rep against Noah. It was a deep cross (sounds familiar, right?) where Joe Burrow was allowed to comfortably hold the ball for over three seconds while Chase ran the entire width of the football field with Noah about half a step behind him. Ball was perfect and Chase caught it with Igbinoghene breathing down his neck. That's a win for Chase. Nice play. Noah struggled repeatedly on the same routes against Stefon Diggs, and Diggs clearly created more separation on those routes. But that was really it for Chase's winning. Noah broke up two passes intended for Ja'Marr Chase. He also stopped Ja'Marr Chase dead in his tracks on a screen pass on 4th & 2 from the goal line. Noah held him up long enough for help to get there and take Chase down well shy of the end zone. It was a nice play by Igbinoghene. The thing I noticed with all the other coverage reps was how easily Noah seemed to stay in Chase's hip pocket.

Roger McCreary: During that Auburn game, the big plays Chase made, he did that on Roger McCreary. Those two had a nice battle. Chase won some big ones, and so he carries the day. But McCreary also won a big one as he out-muscled Chase one-on-one for an interception on a deep ball. He also showed some keen physicality in the red zone, disrupting Chase on his route and blanketing him.

Parnell Motley: I am comfortable with saying that Parnell Motley straight up won the duel. And that was after Ja'Marr Chase had talked sh-t about Motley to the press the week leading up to the game. You could tell those comments fired Parnell up and he went out there and performed. No catches. No won reps for Chase. Several times they were locked in man coverage and Burrow looked over that direction, he had to come off it and either move along with his reads or tuck the ball. One time, he did throw to Chase on Motley, and Parnell broke up the pass. It was a clean win for Motley. They did face off with one another plenty enough for Chase to get in his licks. He just...didn't.

Pat Surtain, Jr.: Surtain looked very comfortable covering Ja'Marr Chase. The latter DID catch two balls, but they were not clean wins against Surtain. One of them was a switch release where one of Chase's teammates chipped Surtain on the shoulder, freeing Chase up for the catch. That's not really a win for Ja'Marr. The other catch it looked like Surtain had deepest-man responsibility with outside leverage in one of Saban's coverages, and the safety to his inside got sucked up toward the line of scrimmage because Joe Burrow faked like he was going to do a keeper draw up the middle. You could see the underneath safety get sucked up and then pull an "oh sh-t" when Burrow stopped and passed the football to Chase on the in-breaking route. That's not really Surtain's fault. I could be wrong. If Surtain was in MEG then I'm wrong. But the rest of the day, Surtain had Ja'Marr blanketed. There was at least one more rep where they were manned up and Burrow looked that direction but had to tuck the football and run because it wasn't there. In order to do damage in this game, Chase had to flip over and face Trevon Diggs.

Trevon Diggs: Lost. And it was bad. Just, I don't even know what the hell he was doing out there. Give Chase this win cleanly. It impacted the game. Diggs's hips looked awful.

Cam Dantzler: Now, to be fair, the matchup with Cam Dantzler wasn't really much of a matchup at all. The two just didn't face off much in man. Dantzler was part of bracket coverage on Chase some of the time, and other times they were just on different sides. But you do have to give the win to Dantzler, though with the caveat it was on a low number of reps. While Chase did straight up beat Cam on a quick out with his physical strength, it was only a 6 yard play. It's a win, give it to him, but it wasn't a bad win. On the other hand, the two went vertical down the field in man, and Burrow threw it, but Dantzler had him all the way and it was very nearly intercepted. It was similar to that Roger McCreary interception, but Dantzler didn't finish it. Still a big win.

Eric Stokes: I have to say, Ja'Marr Chase created quite a bit of separation against Eric Stokes of Georgia, and with regularity. Stokes was getting jammed up all over the place trying to keep up with Chase's breaks. I think he fell to the ground two, maybe three times. On one of them, Chase ended up catching a TD in the back of the end zone. In Eric Stokes's defense, Joe Burrow had like 4 hours to finally throw that ball, and technically the defender trying to (unsuccessfully) break it up at the end was a safety, not Stokes. But the reason is because Stokes fell down trying to keep up with Chase's break, got up and tried to close on Ja'Marr like a screaming banshee, and fell off again as Chase decided to break the other direction on the scramble drill while the safety tried his best to catch up. I will say that Stokes did manage to break up a deep ball to Chase. But if you look at the All-22, I thought it was a clear win for Chase on the day.

D.J. Daniel: I thought D.J. Daniel did a much better job on Chase in that Georgia game than Stokes did. There was one play where Chase hit Daniel with a hard fake to the outside and then an inside move that left Daniel behind as Ja'Marr caught the ball and got some nice YAC. That was a nice win for Ja'Marr. But overall this matchup with Daniel felt a lot like the Noah Igbinoghene matchup, where Chase had one nice play for a medium gain, but then rep after rep after rep, the other guy won the rest of the way out. Daniel's game, the way he played Chase, it actually reminded me quite a bit of Parnell Motley. He showed good athleticism and hips, and for his weight class, he wasn't afraid to be physical with Chase. And it worked.

C.J. Henderson: This was a fun matchup and overall I thought Henderson won. I think he broke up three or four pass attempts during the game. He broke up the deep pass in the end zone. He was all over Chase on two in-breaking routes, breaking up one of them. Henderson broke up an underneath route. He jammed Chase hard at the line a couple times, really disrupting Chase and not letting him get into his route. Chase did a catch on a speed out versus Henderson's off coverage. I wouldn't count it at all, except that Henderson fell off the tackle. So that's a win for Chase on RAC, let's be fair. Really the only big win for Chase against Henderson's coverage was a run to daylight off RPO against Henderson playing 7 yards off him. Nothing fancy, just broke inside and the ball was on him right away and he secured it just before Henderson came through him to try and break it up. Henderson was late, and would call that a loss, especially as it was a TD, but there was nothing Chase did on the play to make Henderson lose. As for the big long TD everyone saw on the highlight reel, it wasn't a win for Chase. Henderson was picked hard on the switch release by Chase's teammate. That's a win for the blocker, not a win of Chase vs. Henderson. It was the same as the Surtain pick play that Chase caught.

A.J. Terrell: R.I.P.

Overall Impressions: I realize that Ja'Marr Chase was like 19 years old when he was doing his damage. I also realize that sometimes you've got to evaluate what the player is doing and what his traits are, not just keep a scorecard of the wins and losses. On both of those bases, as well as what Chase did to A.J. Terrell and Trevon Diggs, this is why Chase belongs as a good prospect. That said, this was a really somewhat concerning exercise. The guys with quick hips, speed, and physical WILL (even if they're not particularly big or strong) were keeping up with Chase in coverage and winning the reps. That includes D.J. Daniel, Noah Igbinoghene, C.J. Henderson, Parnell Motley, and Cam Dantzler. Yes, those are all NFL players. Well, at least I think Daniel might be an NFL player if he's got his mind right. But not all of them are necessarily good NFL players. So the fact Chase could look kind of mediocre against them rep after rep after rep...during the year when he was supposed to be this ungodly force of nature...isn't that a concern? It's enough to keep me focused on Devonta Smith. And probably enough to see me favoring Jaylen Waddle.
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Terrific analysis, CK. At the end of the day, how one can perform against the best players is what you want to see and this is food for thought.
 
This is one reason I consider Kyle Pitts to be a genuine unicorn. He and Devonta Smith are the only two players I've seen string together multiple wins against Jaycee Horn, without Horn able to win a bunch of his own.
 
An argument could be made that a TE like Pitts could help Tua more than Chase or Smith.

I would not pick Pitts ahead of either WR but in a trade down situation If they missed both WR's and Pitts was there i would not cry at all.
 
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