John Clayton reporting (nothing earth shattering).

[HysterikiLL]

Not so fast. The big difference here is that smokescreens are used to alter someones thinking of your true intentions which will then allow you some advantage. The problem here is teams rarely use a smokescreen of moving UP. Sometimes teams will use a smokescrean that they intend to move DOWN and let someone else come in a and take someone you want (e.g. what happened to the Fins last year). But it makes no sense to use smokescreens about moving UP. How does that possibly benefit TB?

I agree with you man but I do see how a smokescreen could work in moving up --

Say we were sold on Ronnie Brown and most likely he would be available at 5 if we traded down with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay want a QB, right? Then they draft Ronnie and BAM Ronnie is gone. Miami most likely wouldn't have traded down knowing that Ronnie would go at 2.

I'm just using that situation as an example and given, it would be an incredibly rare occurence where a player would be worth trading numerous picks for by one team yet still worth trading down by another team.

 

[caneaddict]

I agree with you man but I do see how a smokescreen could work in moving up --

Say we were sold on Ronnie Brown and most likely he would be available at 5 if we traded down with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay want a QB, right? Then they draft Ronnie and BAM Ronnie is gone. Miami most likely wouldn't have traded down knowing that Ronnie would go at 2.

I'm just using that situation as an example and given, it would be an incredibly rare occurence where a player would be worth trading numerous picks for by one team yet still worth trading down by another team.

Sorry-
I don't think that's valid. When you trade a pick, you trade the PICK. When you make the trade, you don't base it on who the trade partner will take because that trade partner may trade that pick to someone else or anyone between #2 and #5 may trade to a team looking to get Brown. If the Dolphins accept a trade out of the #2 position it's not contingent or based on the hope that Brown will be there at #5.

You can't say moving UP is a smokescreen for moving UP. The definition of a smokescreen is that they don't intend to do it. So how does TB benefit from saying they are interested in moving UP without any actual intention of moving up?

 

[Dudeman]

I know you guys would love it because it benefits the Dolphins, and thats why these threads keep on going. LOL!

while I do agree that there are some major homers on this board, there are homers on every sports board....and some bad ones at that...like Seahawk fans thinking that they'll unload Alexander on us for the #2 overall, ..

I posted this earlier in Blue's thread....

based on the pick value chart, of which is something similar to what Saban will use to determine value, Tampa would have to give up the #5, #36, #71, and #91 to get equal value for the #2 overall.

#2 is worth 2600

#5 is worth 1700, #36 is 540, #71 is 235, and #91 is 136 for a total of 2611.

that means that Tampa would pick #2 overall, then not have a pick till the 4th round...I cant see a trade happening

It was reported that Saban will be using some sort of value chart in determining the final value over the #2's worth. Honestly, I can't see it differing tremendously for the one that was released in public.

That said, it terms of value, if his board is anything at all like this one, Tampa would have to give up a truckload in equal value, which I doubt they'll do

 

[caneaddict]

while I do agree that there are some major homers on this board, there are homers on every sports board....and some bad ones at that...like Seahawk fans thinking that they'll unload Alexander on us for the #2 overall, ..

I posted this earlier in Blue's thread....



It was reported that Saban will be using some sort of value chart in determining the final value over the #2's worth. Honestly, I can't see it differing tremendously for the one that was released in public.

That said, it terms of value, if his board is anything at all like this one, Tampa would have to give up a truckload in equal value, which I doubt they'll do

They don't have to give up all the value in THIS draft. A 1st in 2006 and a 2nd (or maybe even 3rd) this year would match the value.

 

[Dudeman]

They don't have to give up all the value in THIS draft. A 1st in 2006 and a 2nd (or maybe even 3rd) this year would match the value.

a draft is a draft.....Saban is not just going to lower the value of his pick just because fans or "experts" may perceive it as a "weak" draft.

it's going to be somewhere in the range of a first, second, and third...

so if Tampa gave up #5, #36, and #91, Saban would probably be amenable to that

besides, if Tampa wants Smith/Rodgers that bad, they gotta pay the price. Saban can easily say "Hey, I'm gonna take Alex/Aaron, but if you give me those 3 picks, its a deal."

Saban has the leverage here, especially if the Niners take a QB

 

[ckparrothead]

In the end you look at the need and the talent. This talk of the QBs being better than last year's top QBs is garbage, pure and simple...and that is coming from a man (me) who openly hopes we draft Aaron Rodgers. Teams are trying to get the Dolphins, Browns, and 49ers to take the QBs.

What does Tampa have to gain by faking interest in trading up for Smith or Rodgers? Easy. Gruden has a reputation for handling QBs very well. If Gruden is tooting these guys' horns, then in theory other teams should get themselves another look...especially teams with a defensive head coaches who supposedly don't know a whole lot about offense (Hmm...Mike Nolan, Nick Saban, Romeo Crennell....ya think?). Also, by Tampa professing their eagerness to trade up so early, they are trying to get other teams who may ACTUALLY be in love with the two QBs, to try and trade up in order to beat Tampa to the punch.

What would tampa have to gain by attempting to ensure that both QBs end up taken in the top 4 picks? Simple. Mike Williams, or Ronnie Brown. Braylon Edwards will DEFINITELY get taken before Mike Williams. We can all agree on that. If, in theory, by the time the first 3 picks are done Alex Smith, Braylon Edwards, and Aaron Rodgers are off the board, that leaves the Bears with either Williams or Brown, and leaves Tampa with whoever the Bears did not pick.

Back to talent and need...

What does Jon Gruden like about Mike Williams? His size. He's a home town hero. Gruden's offense favors BIG wide receivers. I have personally heard him say this before, living in Tampa as I do. He said that he likes wide receivers that are real big, tall, and physical because in his own words "It really makes a difference"

What does Jon Gruden like about Ronnie Brown? He's got the speed of Pittman, the receiving skills of Pittman, much better size than Pittman (Pittman and Alstott in one?), and NONE of the off-field issues that Mike Pittman has. Ronnie Brown has a clean record. Gruden's offense has always been at its best when he's got a Pittman or a Pittman-like back (Garner) performing really well, and Ronnie Brown is as close to that as you're getting in this draft. It makes things a lot easier on his quarterback to have a back like that.

 

[dolphingator]

Gruden is a pretty intelligent guy. If he wants one of the QBs badly enough to give his top 2 picks away, that tells me that Alex Smith is worth picking for ourselves. NOBODY out there thinks he will be a bust. No one.

I would rather get a TOP player (one) than a bunch of mediocre ones. And I don't care how many draft picks we accumulate. This is not Monopoly and draft picks are not little green houses to collect in numbers. We need QUALITY offensive talent, not the middle-of-the-road guys. Don't even bring up NE, they are basically a fluke and an accident. Look at their oh-so-dominating last second Vinatieri FG wins in SB's.

We need to acquire talent and DOMINATE for the next 5-10 years. You can't get cheap at the skill positions and expect to dominate. Especially at QB.

 

[ckparrothead]

Gruden is a pretty intelligent guy. If he wants one of the QBs badly enough to give his top 2 picks away, that tells me that Alex Smith is worth picking for ourselves. NOBODY out there thinks he will be a bust. No one.

I would rather get a TOP player (one) than a bunch of mediocre ones. And I don't care how many draft picks we accumulate. This is not Monopoly and draft picks are not little green houses to collect in numbers. We need QUALITY offensive talent, not the middle-of-the-road guys. Don't even bring up NE, they are basically a fluke and an accident. Look at their oh-so-dominating last second Vinatieri FG wins in SB's.

We need to acquire talent and DOMINATE for the next 5-10 years. You can't get cheap at the skill positions and expect to dominate. Especially at QB.

Case in point. If Dolphingator were an NFL GM, then Gruden would have just succeeded in his plan.

 

[rafael]

Case in point. If Dolphingator were an NFL GM, then Gruden would have just succeeded in his plan.

of course it could also just mean that Gruden believes that the this year's QBs are better than last year's. The simplest solution is usually the right one.