Josh Allen: The Only Plausible First Round QB Option for Miami

[rent this space]

You can worry about whatever you want to worry about. I worry about his footwork which has led to some accuracy issues.

The amount of scrutiny that is applied to Senior Bowl practice reports is ridiculous. These are All Star practices. Everyone's working with new receivers, new playbooks, odd situations, etc. The practices can be valuable to the discerning eye. They can be breathtakingly misleading to people on message boards playing the game of telephone, reading reports from onlookers who may, or may not actually have even been paying much attention to the player in practice, let alone know what they're seeing.

sorry- I guess I didn't phrase that very well. Do you think he can overcome these issues? Better footwork can be taught but the track record isn't good for guys with similar numbers to Allen.

 

[ckparrothead]

sorry- I guess I didn't phrase that very well. Do you think he can overcome these issues? Better footwork can be taught but the track record isn't good for guys with similar numbers to Allen.

The track record isn't good for guys with completion percentages much higher than Josh Allen's, either. What if I told you that less than a hundredth of one percent of the quarterbacks coming out with 65-plus percent completion will end up good pro QBs?

Completion percentage is not a good predictor. No statistic is.

Do I want incomplete passes and inaccurate throws? Absolutely not. But I'm going to judge the accuracy by looking at a ton of factors that one single cumulative number on a page doesn't take account of.

He's got some issues leaning away from the throw, gets into trouble from an accuracy standpoint because of it. Going to have to work on his feet, his discipline. He was also throwing to guys who really just weren't open. You'd be surprised what that does to the percentage of passes you throw that look "uncatchable".

 

[ANUFan]

Jesus man, where the hell have YOU been? Good to see you!

Studying my butt off all the time! I can't tell you the last time I watched anything...Lol! Well...Jags vs. Pats...does that count?

 

[ckparrothead]

As for thread topic, I would say that I have ENTERTAINED the idea that Miami could take a quarterback at pick 11. That's intentional word choice, because it implies that I'm just amusing myself.

In all seriousness, they're not taking one. Very little chance. Very, very little. They're 100% sold on Tannehill. It's tough to take a 1st round QB when you're sold on your starter. The argument that the backup QB spot is that important, see 2017, may make some sense, but it's a stretch. A big stretch.

The ONLY scenario where this happens, is they get stuck between a rock and a hard place, presented with a guy they rated high, not having any inkling of a clue that he'd make it to their pick, and then when it's their turn they're faced with having to explain to everyone in the room, the owner, scouts, coaches, even themselves, that the guy who is up there on war room draft board very clearly marked ahead of everyone else as the best player available, is not going to be their pick. That's hard to explain, no matter what the position is.

In other words, to end up taking a quarterback, they would need to get Laremy Tunsil'd.

So it's possible. The question is, which quarterback?

Adam Gase will like Josh Allen and I think he'll hit some of Dan Marino's erogenous zones as well. But even they will not like how he's played in bigger games against better defenses, and I can see Grier and Tannenbaum killing the guy on the much argued about accuracy issues.

I think the staff will like Baker Mayfield, possibly Grier as well. But Adam Gase hates the spread. Hates it. I don't know that I have ever seen him seriously entertain a short quarterback, and it could be because his system demands too much in the shallow areas of the field between the numbers. To whatever extent Gase has a relationship with Kliff Kingsbury, he's going to get an earful from Kliff about Mayfield's time at Texas Tech, and the way it ended.

The guy I come back to, though...the guy that I think every single voice in that room is going to agree is a good quarterback prospect...is Josh Rosen. Adam Gase will adore the way Rosen operates from the pocket. Dan Marino will like him. The staff will like him (I already know this to be true). Grier will like him. Everyone will like him. And I could see them being pretty damned convinced that there's no way in hell he makes it to pick 11.

But then...what if he does?

When I *entertain* this line of thinking, that's the thought that preoccupies me, most of the time.

 

[Michigan Mike]

From my observations this guy is Joey Harrington 2.0. The similarities in college stats and hype coming out are way too similar for my liking.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

I meant he had almost triple in 2016 with all the players that supposedly caused the struggles this year by leaving.

Reading is clearly difficult for me lol. My bad.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

The track record isn't good for guys with completion percentages much higher than Josh Allen's, either. What if I told you that less than a hundredth of one percent of the quarterbacks coming out with 65-plus percent completion will end up good pro QBs?

Completion percentage is not a good predictor. No statistic is.

Do I want incomplete passes and inaccurate throws? Absolutely not. But I'm going to judge the accuracy by looking at a ton of factors that one single cumulative number on a page doesn't take account of.

He's got some issues leaning away from the throw, gets into trouble from an accuracy standpoint because of it. Going to have to work on his feet, his discipline. He was also throwing to guys who really just weren't open. You'd be surprised what that does to the percentage of passes you throw that look "uncatchable".

The thing I like about the practices is the camera angles it affords you to look at this guys. During yesterday's practices, in the mirrored offense vs. air drills, I slowed down everyone's motion frame-by-frame. Allen looks beautiful doing this. Shoulders and hips are married to the feet, the motion is pretty, the follow through is perfect.

With Mayfield, it looks like it's a lot harder for him to go through throwing mechanics. That's not to say it is, just that when you slow it down, it's clear who is a more natural thrower of the football.

THe thing I love about Mayfield's game is how fast he does everything. And he's a ****ing master at manipulating the defense with ball fakes, his eyes, and the choppy footwork within the pocket. They were showing a highlight over and over again where he flips his hips, the LBs sprint that direction, and he goes right up the seam for a wide open TD.

 

[rent this space]

Reading is clearly difficult for me lol. My bad.

Not a problem, I freely admit that I don't follow college ball closely and no one will ever refer to me as an "Xs bad Os" guy. Please don't misunderstand me, these are honest questions. I saw him make some incredible throws in those videos but 56% in both seasons is tough to reconcile. Bottom line: there are some very smart people that think he could be great QB so we will see, I was wrong that one time...

 

[Stoobz]

I think Josh Allen has much more project to him than any sort of near term starter.

Huge potential but so much work has to be done for him to reach it. He will struggle early and often.

 

[Birdmond]

I think Josh Allen has much more project to him than any sort of near term starter.

Huge potential but so much work has to be done for him to reach it. He will struggle early and often.

Agreed. I’m of the belief that is really important for Allen and Lamar Jackson to sit and learn for as long as possible. But I love em both.