There is not enough talent surrounding Rosen, for us to truly know 100% that Rosen is a QB who can win a superbowl this year, even if he improves. What is the bar? How will we know he will reach an elite level, top 5 or 6 for example? That uncertainty is why we have to draft another prospect next draft, and we are built to draft one high in 2020, hopefully 1st. Then, we would be in a great position, let Rosen and the new prospect battle it out! Increases our chances of getting the guy significantly because we can’t afford to miss again. We still have plenty of cap space and picks to begin to plug the holes on this team to set the QB up to succeed. We’ll be able to get a much better gauge on things with competition when the team is actually trying to win in terms of the talent level they are putting on the field.
Yes and no. I always say that evaluating a young QB is more than just TDs. Adversity and inferior cast around a QB means adversity and you can learn a lot when you watch a QB fights through adversity. Almost every QB can have great stats when everything is fine. But fighting through adversity is a whole other ball game.
I could give you the reverse i.e. where a good play is negatively rated by coaches. Rosen lost his starting gig on one of his most important plays in preseason. In the 3rd preseason game he scrambled to the right and threw a bullet to Ford - right on the money between two defenders. It was a highlite reel for the media and fans loved it. I loved it. But with my cheers and my "ohhhh" and "ahhhh" I said to my fellow fan next to me "dam, he just lost the starting gig."
Why? As great as this pass was there was receiver 5 or 6 yards in front of him. Uncovered. It was the safe option. If you understand Flores and O'Shea then you know "safe comes first". That was his target. The pass he threw could have been deflected or even intercepted if he'd play against first stringers. O'Shea wants the safe option. Dump the ball off and let the receiver do the work. He probably would have gained as many if not even more yards and if Ford turns into a blocker he takes the pig skin home.
That type of evaluation is also applying to bad plays or plays when everything goes haywire. As a coach looking at film you can get a dam good idea from every play how good a QB is or can be.
How good Rosen can be we saw in the first half of last weeks game. And yes people argue because he had better protection. But that is only half the story. We had for the most part max protection. We blocked with 5, 6 sometimes 7 players 4 defenders. When you do that you lose targets in the passing game. Rosen had for the most part in the first half 3 or 4 targets playing against 5, 6 or 7 defenders in the backfield. That means he had to be extremely accurate because number wise we were behind. He was nearly perfect. What might have looked like a better situation for Rosen it was actually worse.
That max protection broke down in the 2nd half when the Chargers committed more players to the rush. It was an adjustment they had to make watching Rosen in the first half completing his passes. They put more numbers on the line and overwhelmed our max protection. And we didn't or couldn't (based on lack of talent) make adjustment.
And the second half gave us a boatload of information. How did he handle the pressure? Did he make the right decisions? I saw two really bad plays. One was the run near our own endzone. But I also saw that very same play yesterday from Mahomes. Running in the backfield, looking downfield, hunted by defenders and eventually caught for a sack. Both QBs "forgot" to just throw it away. What makes Rosen's plays worse is that his play was close to a safety. I am sure that was addressed in the QB room. If he can learn from that play mission accomplished.
The other bad play was his INT. He was impatient, frustrated, wanted to make a play in a game which slipped away and made a bad decision. Point is: will he learn from that?
For the rest if the second half as bad as it was he made mostly the right decisions. He was trying to escape pressure and threw most balls in places where either only the receiver can get it or just did throwaways (which include overthrows on purpose). There are a couple of plays where he could have done better but I have the advantage of sitting at the 50 yard line, have the whole field in view and I am not chased by a bunch Mac Trucks.
TBH I almost would say that you can learn more from a QB in distress than you do when everything is perfect.
Rosen will have a near 100% evaluation at the end of the season (if he can stay healthy). The question is: will he have shown enough (even in adversity) to be our franchise QB?
If he does we will not pick a QB high in the draft.