Just maybe because it is "upset" week in the nfl ... | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Just maybe because it is "upset" week in the nfl ...

fisi

fisi

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How else do you explain the pathetic performance from our beloved Dolphins. OR the Saints loss AND the 49ers loss. Or the New England win with Mr Bunchen throwing for just 140yards. It started off with East Carolina upsetting Virginia tech, from there I know its going to be a long weekend. You get this type of weekends once every month or so. All my picks were shredded.
 
This wasn't really an upset. Everybody knows Miami's weaknesses match up perfectly to Buffalo's strengths. I'm probably the most "glass is half empty" guy around so I had this pinned as a loss when the schedule came out in April. I fully expect a strong showing over the next 2 weeks and heading into the bye at 3-1. Everybody take a deep breath and just let it play out.
 
fisi said:
How else do you explain the pathetic performance from our beloved Dolphins. OR the Saints loss AND the 49ers loss. Or the New England win with Mr Bunchen throwing for just 140yards.
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Easy.


All those teams that lost suck and shouldn't have been expected to win in the first place. :idk:
 
BEANTOWNFINFAN said:
We shouldn't have expected the Saints to be the Browns?
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Well, I didn't. I laughed when I saw a bunch of people in my suicide pool get knocked out by them. Browns are underrated because of how criminally inept they can be. Sort of like the Dolphins. They're not free-win tier bad like the Jags, Raiders, and Giants. And when do the Saints ever have anything more than their passing game?
 
And if the Dolphins win 35-7 next week against KC and RT throws for 350yds and 3 or 4TDs, they'll be excellent and playoff talk will resume around here.

LOL you people kill me. 1 game.. 1 game against a team we match up horribly with and blow it all up! SMH...
 
BlueCelicaTRD said:
And if the Dolphins win 35-7 next week against KC and RT throws for 350yds and 3 or 4TDs, they'll be excellent and playoff talk will resume around here.

LOL you people kill me. 1 game.. 1 game against a team we match up horribly with and blow it all up! SMH...
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Yep.

But the injuries really are piling up. No Knowshown, Shelley Smith, Pouncey still out. Not to mention the LBs... This next game is going to be tough. Poe inside especially vs Dallas Thomas (who I expect they'll put in, unfortunately) is pretty scary. The bye week needs to come soon.
 
BlueCelicaTRD said:
And if the Dolphins win 35-7 next week against KC and RT throws for 350yds and 3 or 4TDs, they'll be excellent and playoff talk will resume around here.

LOL you people kill me. 1 game.. 1 game against a team we match up horribly with and blow it all up! SMH...
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There's another side of the coin. You people that want to look at everything in a vacuum and say "oh its just one gd game. Oh my God!" are just about as ridiculous. It isn't the one game. It's that it's one game so early in the season that came on the heels of a great win that gave a lot of people hope that things might finally be different with this team. Tannehill's performance last week, even in victory, raised red flags for a lot of people. Then he went out yesterday and dropped that complete turd of a performance and now people are alarmed about him.
I do agree that some people are way too quick to be up in arms, but it is all about the context of things and not just what is on the surface. Tannehill has looked very shaky throwing the ball the last two weeks. I would argue that his ball placement so far is much worse than it was last season, save for a few games. I am willing to at least entertain the idea that some of it may be due to the new offense and kinks that need to be worked out, but people need to also strongly consider at the same time that maybe, just maybe, Tannehill is not ever going to be able to put it all together.
 
Yesterday's loss wasn't an upset at all. It can be argued, pretty easily, that the Bills have more talent across the board than the 'phins.
 
Was a big upset weekend. I was looking at betting the underdog and betting the money line.

There were 3 good chances this past weekend. Clev at home against the saints was a 2.4-1 payout.
Jets at Packers were a 3.4-1 payout. And San Diego was 1.8-1

Couldn't decide which one to pick and went with Denver and lost my money. Live and learn.

There was also St Louis 2-1, Dallas 1.5-1, and Chicago 2.7-1 that would have won you big money.
 
In the NFL always look at the result of the road team the prior week. It's a cheap tip off toward what type of intensity level to expect. I've mentioned this often in the 9+ years I've posted on this site. Road teams coming off a loss fare 9% better against the spread than road teams coming off a victory. It's the difference between slight positive expectation and slight negative expectation. With home teams it doesn't matter at all. There is no long term trend based on how the home team fared a week earlier.

New England and Chicago were road teams coming off losses as favorite. That aligns with energy and upside. New Orleans also was in that role. But once you get to road favoritism of that level there are many dangers and additional requirements.

Road teams coming off big home victories are susceptible to flat efforts on the road. That happened to the Dolphins, Seahawks and Lions. The Steelers also showed nothing after winning at home a week earlier. Again, it's a favorable trend but not an absolute. Naturally there can be exceptions, like the Texans who had such an embarrassing season last year they are not yet ready to throw away games on the road, or the Jaguars who simply aren't very good and got thumped on the road despite losing a week earlier.

BTW, it was not a good sign when the bettors took the Bills from +1 to -1.5 in the late going. I'm not sure that move was noted on this site. The late money flooded in on Buffalo, identical to our meeting on the road in the next to last game last season. Those late moves have an erratic history over the past 3 decades. Recently the late money has been getting there. I've been receiving conflicting information on which betting group is responsible and who is doing their handicapping.

I have no idea how anybody can expect an easy victory over the Chiefs, a playoff team now 0-2. Much more often than not a road team in that situation will produce an energized desperate performance. I was rooting for the Chiefs to pull out that game yesterday, helping the Dolphins next week and also removing Denver from the unbeaten ranks.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
In the NFL always look at the result of the road team the prior week. It's a cheap tip off toward what type of intensity level to expect. I've mentioned this often in the 9+ years I've posted on this site. Road teams coming off a loss fare 9% better against the spread than road teams coming off a victory. It's the difference between slight positive expectation and slight negative expectation. With home teams it doesn't matter at all. There is no long term trend based on how the home team fared a week earlier.

New England and Chicago were road teams coming off losses as favorite. That aligns with energy and upside. New Orleans also was in that role. But once you get to road favoritism of that level there are many dangers and additional requirements.

Road teams coming off big home victories are susceptible to flat efforts on the road. That happened to the Dolphins, Seahawks and Lions. The Steelers also showed nothing after winning at home a week earlier. Again, it's a favorable trend but not an absolute. Naturally there can be exceptions, like the Texans who had such an embarrassing season last year they are not yet ready to throw away games on the road, or the Jaguars who simply aren't very good and got thumped on the road despite losing a week earlier.

BTW, it was not a good sign when the bettors took the Bills from +1 to -1.5 in the late going. I'm not sure that move was noted on this site. The late money flooded in on Buffalo, identical to our meeting on the road in the next to last game last season. Those late moves have an erratic history over the past 3 decades. Recently the late money has been getting there. I've been receiving conflicting information on which betting group is responsible and who is doing their handicapping.

I have no idea how anybody can expect an easy victory over the Chiefs, a playoff team now 0-2. Much more often than not a road team in that situation will produce an energized desperate performance. I was rooting for the Chiefs to pull out that game yesterday, helping the Dolphins next week and also removing Denver from the unbeaten ranks.
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I am hoping that playing at 5280 feet has an effect on their recovery. Playing at altitude then going to play in heat and humidity, plus the early start on the east coast should be in our favor(early starts usually impact west coast teams. Any #s on what a team does after playing on the road at Mile High? The Rockies seem to believe that the altitude is a detriment to their starting pitchers stamina I would be curious to see if it hurts teams the following week.
 
madmic21 said:
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I am hoping that playing at 5280 feet has an effect on their recovery. Playing at altitude then going to play in heat and humidity, plus the early start on the east coast should be in our favor(early starts usually impact west coast teams. Any #s on what a team does after playing on the road at Mile High? The Rockies seem to believe that the altitude is a detriment to their starting pitchers stamina I would be curious to see if it hurts teams the following week.
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We are playing the Chiefs at 4:25
 
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