Given the general mood in the forums recently I've been reticent to post lately but here goes, the keys to defeating Cleveland...
When Miami has the ball
Cleveland has a statistically good defense. They're 6th in YPG but only 16th in PPG, giving up only 19 points to the offense-impaired Colts but 27 against the much better Bengals. Their strength lies not in the front 7, where they're merely ordinary, but in their strong secondary, lead by 2nd year guys Joe Haden - by advanced stats, the best rookie CB last year - and SS T.J. Ward, a playmaker on the rise. Opposite Haden is veteran Sheldon Brown, a very solid player until 2010. From what I've seen them so far it's a very strong secondary, and advanced stats support it: Cleveland ranks 8th in pass defense, the lowest of the defenses that have been above average against the pass so far this year (yes, it's been a passing bonanza across the league).
However, there are reasons for optimism for Miami's passing game. While Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess will probably have a hard time on this one (Cleveland ranks 5th against both #1 and #3/#4 receivers) they're average against #2s (nominally handled by Hartline, since he usually lines up outside) and lousy against both TEs and RBs (23rd and 31st, respectively). Miami's best course of action is a return to Checkdown Henne: underneath routes to the RBs and testing the LBs with Fasano. While Mastrud provides little help in the passing game, 2-TE sets once again should feature prominently in the game plan.
The reasoning for this is the weakness of Cleveland's defense: the running game. Over two games, they've given up 139 yards to the Bengals and 109 to the Colts - and the latter have little running game to challenge teams with. That 124 YPG average ranks them 24th in the league, although advanced stats are a bit more forgiving (ranking them 18th overall). With the unexpected performance of Daniel Thomas last week agains the Texans, Miami should direct its main attention to this part of their D. Rankings of the Miami's rushing game are pointless - they're very much inflated by Thomas' great game last week - but the overall performance should direct the team towards a more run-oriented gameplan.
Most importantly, Cleveland has little hope to rush the edge. While Jake Long has been less than his stellar self so far this season, he's still well above most LTs, Marc Colombo is a turnstile on the RT spot, and Vernon Carey has been a liability while he struggles to handle his position change. This has been consistently exploited by the Pats and Texans, who have very good defensive lines - however, Cleveland relies on two rookies, Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard, and a veteran who most felt had a breakout year last season, Ahtyba Rubin. The rookies have looked impressive early on, each notching a sack so far. However, Sheard has yet to face a guy like Long (even after practicing with Joe Thomas) and Taylor should be double teamed by Pouncey and Carey, a matchup hard to win for the youngster. Incognito should be strong against the underwhelming Rubin, and if the Browns flip their DTs, it's an even easier matchup, with a double team of Incognito and Pouncey over the rookie.
If I'm Miami, I discard the 3 WR sets that have dominated the offensive philosophy lately. This isn't a game that's going to be won by spreading the field; rather, I come out with a base 2-TE set (which the Dolphins have also heavily used) and rely on short passes to the backs and TEs to complement what should be a dominanting ground performance. I double up Taylor, put TE support on the right side of the line, and the offense should be good for 24 points.
When Cleveland has the ball
Miami's defense has been horrid, there's no other way about it. Standard stats support it: 31st in PPG (well above KC, but tied with Indy and Atlanta), 32nd in YPG, 31st in yards per play, only above Carolina... you name it, they've been awful. The passing game appears to be the main culprit - they're 30th in passing YPG, compared to 22nd against the run - but advanced stats suggest a different story.
While Miami does rank 30th agains the pass, Football Outsiders has them ranked 28th against the run. This is a huge problem: while New England and Houston have fantastic passing offenses, and the struggles against the pass can be thus somewhat justified, the running game was supposed to be this defense's strength. They've invested heavily in talent across the front 7, and the inability of the unit to stop the run is worrisome.
Fortunately, Cleveland isn't firing in all cilinders on offense. Their rushing game has been pedestrian so far - 26th in YPA, 21st in YPG, 25th by advanced stats - and it can all be traced to problems on the OL. Tony Pashos got a nice FA contract last season, but then missed the season with an ankle injury, and hasn't played so far. He returned to practice Wednesday, but even if he plays, you bet the Dolphins will attack the right side. Which is just as well - Cleveland rarely runs to the right - but whould give Cameron Wake a whale of a day. Expect a sack or two for him on Sunday.
Elsewhere on the line, the big loss has been Eric Steinbach, out for the year after surgery on his back. Steinbach rounded up an excellent left side of the line, and the main source of Hillis' success last season. But with him out, rookie Jason Pinkston has been underwhelming his team's expectations. He was reportedly a strong run-blocker with pass-blocking deficiencies, but he hasn't been able to drive and thus the running game has suffered. While he will improve over time, it's still week 3, and the Dolphins should be able to hold their own. I don't expect to shut them out on the ground, but they shouldn't go over 100 yards.
These same problems in the OL will help the struggling secondary. With Vontae Davis probably out for the game, it will be up to the DL to generate enough pressure to force misfires by Colt McCoy. McCoy has shown excellent presence even under pressure, but all QBs fold if enough heat is pressed upon them. Also, Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie aren't exactly world beaters. Still, the main problem will once again be the TEs. Shurmur's staple is a strong passing to these guys, and so far it's shown: Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore are amongst the lead-leading TEs so far - one with receptions, the other with TDs.
Miami looked very vanilla against the Patriots, but had plenty of success with DB blitzes against the Texans. Nolan and his unit apparently resented the lack of OTAs more than the offense, and his unit should keep improving as time continues. Jason Taylor's proclamations aside, if they keep with these sort of designs, they should give the Cleveland offense fits.
Think of the Cleveland offense like the Patriots, with much worse blocking. We won't be shredded for 500 yards again, but unless we shut out the TEs by some miracle, expect Cleveland to score at least 17 points, all through the air.
Special teams
It goes without mentioning that Joshua Cribbs can change a game. With our lousy coverage, the only hope is that Carpenter shoots the balls OOB enough to make Cribbs useless. Brandon Fields has a cannon for a leg, but again, lousy coverage could end up negating his potential. The good news? Cleveland coverage hasn't been all that great either. We probably won't break a huge return, but we should have solid starting field position on Sunday.
I don't expect Carpenter to miss a couple of cheap shots again, and neither should anyone else.
In short
Miami should win this game handily, and the defense has a chance to come out looking much better than in weeks prior - not exactly a strong compliment, but you take what you can.
Things that can kill the game for us:
- Sticking to the 3 WR sets and test their secondary.
- The TEs, yet again.
- Joshua Cribbs.
Things that can clinch the game for us:
- Our DL, particularly Cameron Wake wide right and Randy Starks on the left A gap.
- Rushing games (ours and theirs)
- Checkdown Henne - as hard as it is to believe.
When Miami has the ball
Cleveland has a statistically good defense. They're 6th in YPG but only 16th in PPG, giving up only 19 points to the offense-impaired Colts but 27 against the much better Bengals. Their strength lies not in the front 7, where they're merely ordinary, but in their strong secondary, lead by 2nd year guys Joe Haden - by advanced stats, the best rookie CB last year - and SS T.J. Ward, a playmaker on the rise. Opposite Haden is veteran Sheldon Brown, a very solid player until 2010. From what I've seen them so far it's a very strong secondary, and advanced stats support it: Cleveland ranks 8th in pass defense, the lowest of the defenses that have been above average against the pass so far this year (yes, it's been a passing bonanza across the league).
However, there are reasons for optimism for Miami's passing game. While Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess will probably have a hard time on this one (Cleveland ranks 5th against both #1 and #3/#4 receivers) they're average against #2s (nominally handled by Hartline, since he usually lines up outside) and lousy against both TEs and RBs (23rd and 31st, respectively). Miami's best course of action is a return to Checkdown Henne: underneath routes to the RBs and testing the LBs with Fasano. While Mastrud provides little help in the passing game, 2-TE sets once again should feature prominently in the game plan.
The reasoning for this is the weakness of Cleveland's defense: the running game. Over two games, they've given up 139 yards to the Bengals and 109 to the Colts - and the latter have little running game to challenge teams with. That 124 YPG average ranks them 24th in the league, although advanced stats are a bit more forgiving (ranking them 18th overall). With the unexpected performance of Daniel Thomas last week agains the Texans, Miami should direct its main attention to this part of their D. Rankings of the Miami's rushing game are pointless - they're very much inflated by Thomas' great game last week - but the overall performance should direct the team towards a more run-oriented gameplan.
Most importantly, Cleveland has little hope to rush the edge. While Jake Long has been less than his stellar self so far this season, he's still well above most LTs, Marc Colombo is a turnstile on the RT spot, and Vernon Carey has been a liability while he struggles to handle his position change. This has been consistently exploited by the Pats and Texans, who have very good defensive lines - however, Cleveland relies on two rookies, Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard, and a veteran who most felt had a breakout year last season, Ahtyba Rubin. The rookies have looked impressive early on, each notching a sack so far. However, Sheard has yet to face a guy like Long (even after practicing with Joe Thomas) and Taylor should be double teamed by Pouncey and Carey, a matchup hard to win for the youngster. Incognito should be strong against the underwhelming Rubin, and if the Browns flip their DTs, it's an even easier matchup, with a double team of Incognito and Pouncey over the rookie.
If I'm Miami, I discard the 3 WR sets that have dominated the offensive philosophy lately. This isn't a game that's going to be won by spreading the field; rather, I come out with a base 2-TE set (which the Dolphins have also heavily used) and rely on short passes to the backs and TEs to complement what should be a dominanting ground performance. I double up Taylor, put TE support on the right side of the line, and the offense should be good for 24 points.
When Cleveland has the ball
Miami's defense has been horrid, there's no other way about it. Standard stats support it: 31st in PPG (well above KC, but tied with Indy and Atlanta), 32nd in YPG, 31st in yards per play, only above Carolina... you name it, they've been awful. The passing game appears to be the main culprit - they're 30th in passing YPG, compared to 22nd against the run - but advanced stats suggest a different story.
While Miami does rank 30th agains the pass, Football Outsiders has them ranked 28th against the run. This is a huge problem: while New England and Houston have fantastic passing offenses, and the struggles against the pass can be thus somewhat justified, the running game was supposed to be this defense's strength. They've invested heavily in talent across the front 7, and the inability of the unit to stop the run is worrisome.
Fortunately, Cleveland isn't firing in all cilinders on offense. Their rushing game has been pedestrian so far - 26th in YPA, 21st in YPG, 25th by advanced stats - and it can all be traced to problems on the OL. Tony Pashos got a nice FA contract last season, but then missed the season with an ankle injury, and hasn't played so far. He returned to practice Wednesday, but even if he plays, you bet the Dolphins will attack the right side. Which is just as well - Cleveland rarely runs to the right - but whould give Cameron Wake a whale of a day. Expect a sack or two for him on Sunday.
Elsewhere on the line, the big loss has been Eric Steinbach, out for the year after surgery on his back. Steinbach rounded up an excellent left side of the line, and the main source of Hillis' success last season. But with him out, rookie Jason Pinkston has been underwhelming his team's expectations. He was reportedly a strong run-blocker with pass-blocking deficiencies, but he hasn't been able to drive and thus the running game has suffered. While he will improve over time, it's still week 3, and the Dolphins should be able to hold their own. I don't expect to shut them out on the ground, but they shouldn't go over 100 yards.
These same problems in the OL will help the struggling secondary. With Vontae Davis probably out for the game, it will be up to the DL to generate enough pressure to force misfires by Colt McCoy. McCoy has shown excellent presence even under pressure, but all QBs fold if enough heat is pressed upon them. Also, Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie aren't exactly world beaters. Still, the main problem will once again be the TEs. Shurmur's staple is a strong passing to these guys, and so far it's shown: Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore are amongst the lead-leading TEs so far - one with receptions, the other with TDs.
Miami looked very vanilla against the Patriots, but had plenty of success with DB blitzes against the Texans. Nolan and his unit apparently resented the lack of OTAs more than the offense, and his unit should keep improving as time continues. Jason Taylor's proclamations aside, if they keep with these sort of designs, they should give the Cleveland offense fits.
Think of the Cleveland offense like the Patriots, with much worse blocking. We won't be shredded for 500 yards again, but unless we shut out the TEs by some miracle, expect Cleveland to score at least 17 points, all through the air.
Special teams
It goes without mentioning that Joshua Cribbs can change a game. With our lousy coverage, the only hope is that Carpenter shoots the balls OOB enough to make Cribbs useless. Brandon Fields has a cannon for a leg, but again, lousy coverage could end up negating his potential. The good news? Cleveland coverage hasn't been all that great either. We probably won't break a huge return, but we should have solid starting field position on Sunday.
I don't expect Carpenter to miss a couple of cheap shots again, and neither should anyone else.
In short
Miami should win this game handily, and the defense has a chance to come out looking much better than in weeks prior - not exactly a strong compliment, but you take what you can.
Things that can kill the game for us:
- Sticking to the 3 WR sets and test their secondary.
- The TEs, yet again.
- Joshua Cribbs.
Things that can clinch the game for us:
- Our DL, particularly Cameron Wake wide right and Randy Starks on the left A gap.
- Rushing games (ours and theirs)
- Checkdown Henne - as hard as it is to believe.