Regardless of the general state of gloom and doom in the forums, here it goes...
WHEN MIAMI HAS THE BALL
Miami's rushing game has come alive in the past couple of weeks. After the shootout with New England, Daniel Thomas has firmly settled himself as a powerful option for the inside running the Dolphins prefer. This is good, both because it's the strength of the OL (Miami has been pretty good at perimeter rushing to the left, where Jake Long roams and Carey usually pulls, but god awful towards the right, home of the TEs and Marc Colombo), Reggie Bush's continued ineffectiveness (he's currently ranked last among qualifying rushers according to DVOA) and the downturn of the passing game.
Thomas is currently ranked as the 9th most productive back, and the 7th most effective (the first is a counting stat, the second a rate one). Impressive, and the Dolphins have noticed: in spite of their claims that Bush is the starting back (which technically, he is), Thomas has received the lion share of the carries the past two games (18 for Bush's 6 against the Texans, 23/11 @CLE). While San Diego doesn't have a great defense, their best unit is the front seven, although they still rank below average against the rush (both by regular and advanced stats, they hover around 20). While they're lousy in power situations and stuffing rushes for a loss (or a no-gainer), they *are* good at preventing long runs through the middle, ranking 8th in 2nd level yards. However they go back to crappy in open field yards (22nd) which should open up opportunities for counters, particularly with fakes right back to left. And actually, that's San Diego's weak spot: the left side of the line, a result of two injuries on their DL (Luis Castillo and Jacques Cesaire). A solid dose of off-tackle left rushes for Thomas should yield consistent 5-yarders, which are enough to kill a team. It's up to the Dolphins to execute this plan. Since they attacked Cleveland's weak spots the past game, I expect them to do the same here.
I mentioned Miami's passing game is dwindling, and it's a direct result of two factors: pressure through the right side, and drops. Miami has given up a whopping 11 sacks, good for 26th in the league if we consider the number of passing plays they've had; most of this pressure comes from the right, where Marc Colombo continues to be a huge liability, and Carey continues to try and adjust to the position change. Interestingly, after last week Carey went out with a shoulder injury, much maligned youngster John Jerry came in and performed admirably against Phil Taylor. Carey practiced with the starters on Wednesday, and figures to be back in the lineup, but Jerry's performance gives hope should Carey go out again. The overall pressure has caused Henne to quicken his release, and as such routes have been shortened: few deep passes have come out of the backfield the past couple of games. The Chargers can exploit this: while regular LBs Travis Laboy and Shaun Phillips don't generate much in the way of rushes, they rotate often with Larry English and Antwan Barnes, who leads the team with two sacks. Barnes is very much a situational pass rusher, but he's very competent at this, and the Dolphins (once again) should be wise to slide a TE to the right side, like they did most of the game against the Browns. They should learn from their mistakes: they few times they didn't put a TE (or Nate Garner as an extra lineman) on the right side, Henne was rushed immediately, usually by Sheard. Barnes can do the same.
San Diego's secondary doesn't scare anyone, particularly now. While Antoine Cason has performed competently, Quentin Jammer is no longer a decent defensive back, and their nickel and dime people are even worse. They do have a great safety in Eric Weddle, but Bob Sanders went down last year and has been placed in IR; subbing for him is Steve Gregory, he of the PED suspension last season. If you stay away from Cason and Weddle, you have a great shot at success: San Diego is ranked 17th against #1s, but 30th against #2, 32nd against slot receivers, and 31st against TEs. The only bright spot in pass coverage for them is against RBs, where they currently rank 2nd in the league. So the formula changes from last week: Throw at everybody except Marshall (assuming Cason takes him personally), schew the dumpoff to the RBs, and forget throwing deep against Weddle. Short and intermediate passes with Hartline and Bess should be a great recipe this week, with another solid dose of Fasano.
Miami's offense has *everything* to take on the Chargers, but that was the case last week against the Browns. If the Dolphins do not solve their red zone woes, we will be talking about another great statistical game with few points on the board on Monday. Best case scenario, they can score 30+ on the Chargers. Worst case? Well... we're used to it.
WHEN SAN DIEGO HAS THE BALL
It won't take the best case scenario to keep up with the Chargers' passing game. Phillip Rivers is still very much an elite QB, but Antonio Gates hasn't recovered from the turf toe injury that took him down last season, and his impact is felt throughout the San Diego offense. While they rank 6th in YPG, they go all the way down to 15th in PPG this season. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? Miami ranks 14th and 27th, respectively. This is an offense very much like ours in this respect: they're better than their point totals would suggest, and a big part of it is that their biggest end zone guy is in the bench or, when in the field, ineffective. Consider this: Gates has, until this season, averaged 13.5 YPC. This year? 9.3. His replacement is an old friend of the Dolphins, Randy McMichael (who's currently beating Gates in YPC average). However he's not the biggest threat to the defense. You might consider Vincent Jackson (8th most productive among receivers) or Malcolm Floyd (25th) the biggest concerns, but while Jackson is a great threat, the Dolphins can handle him, particularly with Vontae Davis back from injury. Actually, Floyd should have a bigger game than Jackson, since the Dolphins currently rank 20th against #2 receivers, and Floyd is no slouch. But they're also not the biggest threat via the pass.
No, the biggest concern for Miami's pass defense should be Mike Tolbert. This is not a case of overreaction to Floyd's monster week 1 game (3 TDs): he has had more catches than any other Charger this season, and while the bulk came in the first two games, last week he had 3 - but no Charger had more than 5. He's a big part of their offense, filling the role that Moose Johnston used to in Turner's early 90s Dallas teams. And Miami *should* be concerned, since they're currently ranked 30th in efficiency against RBs. While they give up relatively few yards (28.8 avg) they are giving them up in important situations, allowing opposing teams to convert for first downs with their dumpoffs and screens. Miami has to focus on Tolbert and stop him quickly when he comes out of the backfield, or we're going to see a lot of long drives on Sunday.
However, the passing game is of little concern compared to the rushing offense of San Diego. Ryan Matthews has matured into a great running back, currently ranked 5th in production and 4th in efficiency. Tolbert's blocking is a big part of it, but the OL deserves a lot of credit for this. They're not flashy: they don't get a lot of big runs, but they also rarely get stopped at the LOS. Miami has a strong defensive front, that has gotten progressively better as the season goes on, but the run stuffing we saw last year isn't there, and Soliai and Co. better step up if they hope to limit Matthews. Currently, they're awful at everything: 27th in stuffed rushes, 27th in 2nd level yards, 27th in power situations... missed tackles have been critical in this respect. The biggest culprit here is the OL left side, where Randy Starks and Jared Odrick usually line up. Miami has been putting Koa Misi on this side in obvious rushing situations, and it's helped some, but they still need to improve dramatically if they want to avoid the long drives.
Still, I expect San Diego to score around 20 points. Our offense should hold them off the field long enough to limit their opportunities, and San Diego's own struggles in 1st down coupled with a few breaks should be enough to hold them to this level.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both teams have had good kickers, great punters, and lousy coverage for the past few years. It's gotten to the point where San Diego was giving up returns for TDs seemingly every week, and Miami should be able to get good field position. San Diego has a couple of shifty returners, so they should also have good starting field position. Expect a lot of crappy coverage on both sides.
OUTLOOK
What can I say? This is another team that Miami should come out on top of, *if* they can stop beating themselves. I hope for a 24-21 Miami victory, but I know full well a 35-13 disaster is possible. It all comes down to what Miami comes out there: the "we-find-ways-to-lose" squad that has trotted the past weeks, or the team that this team can actually be.
ETA: Sorry, it's week 4. I guess I'm a bit off
WHEN MIAMI HAS THE BALL
Miami's rushing game has come alive in the past couple of weeks. After the shootout with New England, Daniel Thomas has firmly settled himself as a powerful option for the inside running the Dolphins prefer. This is good, both because it's the strength of the OL (Miami has been pretty good at perimeter rushing to the left, where Jake Long roams and Carey usually pulls, but god awful towards the right, home of the TEs and Marc Colombo), Reggie Bush's continued ineffectiveness (he's currently ranked last among qualifying rushers according to DVOA) and the downturn of the passing game.
Thomas is currently ranked as the 9th most productive back, and the 7th most effective (the first is a counting stat, the second a rate one). Impressive, and the Dolphins have noticed: in spite of their claims that Bush is the starting back (which technically, he is), Thomas has received the lion share of the carries the past two games (18 for Bush's 6 against the Texans, 23/11 @CLE). While San Diego doesn't have a great defense, their best unit is the front seven, although they still rank below average against the rush (both by regular and advanced stats, they hover around 20). While they're lousy in power situations and stuffing rushes for a loss (or a no-gainer), they *are* good at preventing long runs through the middle, ranking 8th in 2nd level yards. However they go back to crappy in open field yards (22nd) which should open up opportunities for counters, particularly with fakes right back to left. And actually, that's San Diego's weak spot: the left side of the line, a result of two injuries on their DL (Luis Castillo and Jacques Cesaire). A solid dose of off-tackle left rushes for Thomas should yield consistent 5-yarders, which are enough to kill a team. It's up to the Dolphins to execute this plan. Since they attacked Cleveland's weak spots the past game, I expect them to do the same here.
I mentioned Miami's passing game is dwindling, and it's a direct result of two factors: pressure through the right side, and drops. Miami has given up a whopping 11 sacks, good for 26th in the league if we consider the number of passing plays they've had; most of this pressure comes from the right, where Marc Colombo continues to be a huge liability, and Carey continues to try and adjust to the position change. Interestingly, after last week Carey went out with a shoulder injury, much maligned youngster John Jerry came in and performed admirably against Phil Taylor. Carey practiced with the starters on Wednesday, and figures to be back in the lineup, but Jerry's performance gives hope should Carey go out again. The overall pressure has caused Henne to quicken his release, and as such routes have been shortened: few deep passes have come out of the backfield the past couple of games. The Chargers can exploit this: while regular LBs Travis Laboy and Shaun Phillips don't generate much in the way of rushes, they rotate often with Larry English and Antwan Barnes, who leads the team with two sacks. Barnes is very much a situational pass rusher, but he's very competent at this, and the Dolphins (once again) should be wise to slide a TE to the right side, like they did most of the game against the Browns. They should learn from their mistakes: they few times they didn't put a TE (or Nate Garner as an extra lineman) on the right side, Henne was rushed immediately, usually by Sheard. Barnes can do the same.
San Diego's secondary doesn't scare anyone, particularly now. While Antoine Cason has performed competently, Quentin Jammer is no longer a decent defensive back, and their nickel and dime people are even worse. They do have a great safety in Eric Weddle, but Bob Sanders went down last year and has been placed in IR; subbing for him is Steve Gregory, he of the PED suspension last season. If you stay away from Cason and Weddle, you have a great shot at success: San Diego is ranked 17th against #1s, but 30th against #2, 32nd against slot receivers, and 31st against TEs. The only bright spot in pass coverage for them is against RBs, where they currently rank 2nd in the league. So the formula changes from last week: Throw at everybody except Marshall (assuming Cason takes him personally), schew the dumpoff to the RBs, and forget throwing deep against Weddle. Short and intermediate passes with Hartline and Bess should be a great recipe this week, with another solid dose of Fasano.
Miami's offense has *everything* to take on the Chargers, but that was the case last week against the Browns. If the Dolphins do not solve their red zone woes, we will be talking about another great statistical game with few points on the board on Monday. Best case scenario, they can score 30+ on the Chargers. Worst case? Well... we're used to it.
WHEN SAN DIEGO HAS THE BALL
It won't take the best case scenario to keep up with the Chargers' passing game. Phillip Rivers is still very much an elite QB, but Antonio Gates hasn't recovered from the turf toe injury that took him down last season, and his impact is felt throughout the San Diego offense. While they rank 6th in YPG, they go all the way down to 15th in PPG this season. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? Miami ranks 14th and 27th, respectively. This is an offense very much like ours in this respect: they're better than their point totals would suggest, and a big part of it is that their biggest end zone guy is in the bench or, when in the field, ineffective. Consider this: Gates has, until this season, averaged 13.5 YPC. This year? 9.3. His replacement is an old friend of the Dolphins, Randy McMichael (who's currently beating Gates in YPC average). However he's not the biggest threat to the defense. You might consider Vincent Jackson (8th most productive among receivers) or Malcolm Floyd (25th) the biggest concerns, but while Jackson is a great threat, the Dolphins can handle him, particularly with Vontae Davis back from injury. Actually, Floyd should have a bigger game than Jackson, since the Dolphins currently rank 20th against #2 receivers, and Floyd is no slouch. But they're also not the biggest threat via the pass.
No, the biggest concern for Miami's pass defense should be Mike Tolbert. This is not a case of overreaction to Floyd's monster week 1 game (3 TDs): he has had more catches than any other Charger this season, and while the bulk came in the first two games, last week he had 3 - but no Charger had more than 5. He's a big part of their offense, filling the role that Moose Johnston used to in Turner's early 90s Dallas teams. And Miami *should* be concerned, since they're currently ranked 30th in efficiency against RBs. While they give up relatively few yards (28.8 avg) they are giving them up in important situations, allowing opposing teams to convert for first downs with their dumpoffs and screens. Miami has to focus on Tolbert and stop him quickly when he comes out of the backfield, or we're going to see a lot of long drives on Sunday.
However, the passing game is of little concern compared to the rushing offense of San Diego. Ryan Matthews has matured into a great running back, currently ranked 5th in production and 4th in efficiency. Tolbert's blocking is a big part of it, but the OL deserves a lot of credit for this. They're not flashy: they don't get a lot of big runs, but they also rarely get stopped at the LOS. Miami has a strong defensive front, that has gotten progressively better as the season goes on, but the run stuffing we saw last year isn't there, and Soliai and Co. better step up if they hope to limit Matthews. Currently, they're awful at everything: 27th in stuffed rushes, 27th in 2nd level yards, 27th in power situations... missed tackles have been critical in this respect. The biggest culprit here is the OL left side, where Randy Starks and Jared Odrick usually line up. Miami has been putting Koa Misi on this side in obvious rushing situations, and it's helped some, but they still need to improve dramatically if they want to avoid the long drives.
Still, I expect San Diego to score around 20 points. Our offense should hold them off the field long enough to limit their opportunities, and San Diego's own struggles in 1st down coupled with a few breaks should be enough to hold them to this level.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both teams have had good kickers, great punters, and lousy coverage for the past few years. It's gotten to the point where San Diego was giving up returns for TDs seemingly every week, and Miami should be able to get good field position. San Diego has a couple of shifty returners, so they should also have good starting field position. Expect a lot of crappy coverage on both sides.
OUTLOOK
What can I say? This is another team that Miami should come out on top of, *if* they can stop beating themselves. I hope for a 24-21 Miami victory, but I know full well a 35-13 disaster is possible. It all comes down to what Miami comes out there: the "we-find-ways-to-lose" squad that has trotted the past weeks, or the team that this team can actually be.
ETA: Sorry, it's week 4. I guess I'm a bit off
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