Who did you like in the draft? What kind of things do you look for beyond simply production numbers.
I’m not saying your view of Merrit is wrong just more curious how you see the WR position.
You quote all the time. Maybe you could also provide some more in-depth analysis of your opinions and rationale? Not sure I've seen a like from you in a while either. I'd like to have more of a two-way discourse.
I've said it several times but I'll repeat it. I didn't love our draft. I'm leery about Tua's health, and severely disliked that we did not pick OL to protect him. They're either future prospects (Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt), poor pas protectors (Robert Hunt), or simply not ready for prime time (Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt). Of the OL, the only one I liked was Solomon Kindley, who may have had a down 2019, but he already proved he can pass protect decently against SEC competition, has the tools, and is a ready-to-go run blocker. But he was a middle round pick. IMHO, we should have done better with the 1st and 2nd rounders. I'm OK with Austin Jackson, but even before the draft heavily advocated for moving up from 18 to get one of those top 4 OT's ... and we gambled and lost because none fell. While I disliked the Raekwon Davis selection, I did like the Strowbridge selection. Honestly, I don't dislike all of our picks, but almost all of them were serious reaches except for Tua. I didn't think our draft chose the right guys. On paper, this should be the best Dolphins draft ever. IMHO, it's nowhere close to that.
You wanted my rationale for WR's, here it is.
For me I look for the things that project to success at the NFL level. Rarely is a collegiate player not successful and then miraculously becomes productive against tremendously higher competition. So, that is one predictor. Each position has it's own predictors, but yeah, that one is very common. In fact, I'd call that one universal. By the same token it is unlikely but possible that someone can be average at the collegiate level and excel at the NFL level, but that almost never has to do with the change in competition, and almost always because they were superior athletically and inferior skill-wise. These are the "raw" prospects. Some can eventually learn the skills to catch up to the level of the NFL, but most never fully do. These prospects tend to be exceptional prospects athletically, but had no skill. Best case scenario, that's Meritt. He timed fast in the 40. Unfortunately, he did not look nearly that fast in pads. I would question that 40 time because the video didn't look like he was a 4.3 guy or even a 4.4 guy honestly. He may not be as tall as the listing either, but he did look solid so the weight may be right. I liked that he sometimes blocked downfield, that is encouraging. But, if he is the fastest guy on the team (doubtful from watching that video though), then the only things that really would prevent his QB from giving him a lot of targets would be bad route running (killer in the NFL) or bad hands. I'm guessing he's a bad route runner, although I didn't really see enough of him to judge. Also, if he were a real next-level threat, he would have been double covered ... and he wasn't. His QB didn't go to him when he had 1v1 matchups. He wasn't the go to guy in the red zone or on 3rd down. This, to me, screams not exceptional at the collegiate level. And given that his level of competition was very low, that bodes very poorly.
OK, hope that covers the production part. Here are some of the big factors for a WR.
WR's first and foremost need to be able to create separation, which means quickness (not speed) and route running are imperative. This is the reason guys like Jarvis Landry and Wes Welker were so good, they were quick and knew how to generate separation out of their routes by being savvy and precise route runners. Landry also had great hands. Welker--the quicker of the two--didn't actually have very good hands. Both were exceptional because they were very strong in the strongest skill needed at the WR position. I didn't see Meritt creating a lot of separation, but that video didn't really show too many targets to him either, so I'll withhold judgement there.
The second most important thing for a WR at the NFL level is not seen a lot in college, and that is the ability to beat press coverage. Ask any QB who they want as their starting WR's, and they'll almost always tell you they want the guy who can beat press coverage. Again, it's all about creating that separation and route running. If a super-quick guy gets jammed at the line of scrimmage and delays his route, the QB's progression means that when he looks to that WR, the WR is not where he is supposed to be, and it messes up the progression and the QB has to locate him, re-assess, it takes longer, and becomes a risky throw. Also the QB may get shellacked while he waits for the WR to make up the lost time on the route. It destroys the QB's progression. That's why the NFL has gone to bigger WR's, because they're strong enough to beat press coverage. Since the DB's can no longer mug them downfield, the WR does not need the elite quickness and speed of the 1980's to create separation, and the bigger WR's also present a much better target for a QB. Look at Mike Evans at Tampa Bay as one of the prototypical modern WR's.
The third most important trait for a WR would probably be speed. Deep speed scares defenses and causes safeties to stay back, opening up the underneath stuff for the other WR/TE/RB to do the very common short passing game routes. It also opens up the run game. While speed is not always something that translates into catches, it is something almost every offense needs. As long as you have 1 speedy deep threat, the value of speed at the other WR positions goes down tremendously. Pass rushing in today's NFL is so fierce and complex that very few offenses ask their OL to pass protect much more than 3 to 4 seconds. That's a low bar, to be sure, but it is reality. Throwing the deep ball is HARD in today's NFL because keeping the pass rush off the QB for that long is very hard. This is why you see scrambling QB's like Russell Wilson doing so well, they can buy that extra time for their WR's to get deep. Some QB's are running QB's who look to run, others are scrambling QB's who look to make downfield throws. The traditional pocket passer has become less desired, because OL can't block the pass rush long enough to throw the deep ball very often. So, that speed is nice, but not as valuable as you might think.
The fourth most important aspect of a WR (and after the top two, all of these are debatable as to which should be ranked higher ... it's a preference thing) is the ability to Run After the Catch (RAC) or usually expressed by his ability to get Yards After the Catch (YAC). This is where guys like CeeDee Lamb really shine. It's the ability to protect the OL by throwing a quick pass, protect the QB by getting the ball out of his hands quickly, and hide everything in an offense and just get a talented runner the ball in space. Once he's past the front 7, fast and talented runners can wreak havoc. Some entire offenses are built around this principle. Again, this is not a skill I saw in the Meritt video. Perhaps he was better than average at it ... but not special. In the NFL he will not have the speed advantage he had in small college football.
The fifth most important part of playing WR is probably hands. Sad, yes. But most NFL evaluators will excuse bad hands if they can find that rare prospect who can create separation and beat press coverage. Everything else is gravy. Again, Jarvis Landry, excellent hands. Wes Welker, poor hands. Probably more NFL GM's would take Welker in his prime over Landry, simply because he was a little better at creating separation and finding those dead spots in zones.
Now you've taken a lot of my time and these are some of the things I look for when judging a WR. I hope that helps.