Kyle Orton vs Alex Smith

[dolfanmark]

When I read the profiles on these 2 players, I don't see why one is is considered a top 5 pick, and the other is projected as a 3rd rounder. I know that Orton's stock fell on what was considered a "down year." But, he still completed over 60% of his passes and threw 31 TD's and only had 5 INTs. Both played in wide open college offenses, mostly from the shotgun. Both have good qualities, and both have question marks. But, is the difference between the two that great that they should be taken 2-3 rounds apart? I don't think so. I think whoever takes Alex Smith is going to overpay. And I think that whoever takes Kyle Orton is going to have a potential steal, with regard to performance versus salary.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Athletic ability, mechanics and down the road upside. All 3 severely favor Smith. Orton has just the type of elongated release that virtually disqualifies him from NFL success, IMO.

 

[fishypete]

Sounds like a good fight.

 

[Kthurmus23]

I would take Orton over Smith in a bare knukle boxing match though.

 

[wonderl33t]

Sounds like a good fight.

the difference is Orton played well against crap teams but folded and was benched for poor play versus the big 10's better defenses. Alex Smith destroyed everything in his path, none of the games were even close. That includes annihilating a very solid Big 12 team and stomping the balls of a BCS team

 

[Oregonfinfan]

That is what I have been saying all along I will be irate if we draft Smith with Orton being aroudn later I think Orton is a very good passer who if not for a down year would be up where these other qb's are purdue is in a much tougher college football conference than utah i believe and people will see it I just hope Saban has the sense to see it himself!

 

[fsu_nole4life]

I think Orton has great upside plus he is a guy we can get in the later rounds rather than Smith at #2.. Still i would rather have mcpherson

 

[dolfanmark]

Athletic ability, mechanics and down the road upside. All 3 severely favor Smith. Orton has just the type of elongated release that virtually disqualifies him from NFL success, IMO.

The Sporting News on Alex Smith- "Adequate arm strength, but not good. Can make most NFL throws, but can't deliver the ball into tight spots."

The Sporting News on Kyle Orton- "Has a powerful arm and can make all the downfield throws and put the ball in the tightest of spots."

It's just one example of something in Orton's favor. I'm not disagreeing that Smith is the better pro prospect. But, is he really worth a $20M signing bonus when compared to guys like Campbell, Frye, and Orton? I don't see a convincing argument that Smith has that much more potential than any of those guys.

 

[merlin00069]

Another main reason was the injury Orton had midway through last year. His stock was going through the roof before all that happened.

 

[Jaj]

No Smith can be his own type of QB that's what seperates him. He's Pennington with a bit more arm, on wheels...

Kyle Orton however I've always liked almost as much as Andrew Walter. Charlie Frye not as much.

If Kyle Orton got into better shape, and quickened his deep release then he could be a good QB.

 

[fishypete]

Me...I rather pick Lefors with a 4th round pick...and pay him 1/10 what it will cost for Smith or Rodgers....and you aren't going to find a better more accurate QB in the draft.

 

[yankeehillbilly]

Athletic ability, mechanics and down the road upside. All 3 severely favor Smith. Orton has just the type of elongated release that virtually disqualifies him from NFL success, IMO.

A lot of people said that Marino's throwing mechanics were off. Shula told Dan to not listen to those people and to not change a thing. Not comparing Orton to Marino, just pointing out that there is no such thing as a particular release disqualifing a QB from NFL success.

I do agree with you that Smith is the better choice right now. Ive seen a few of Orton's games this season and last and while he has the ability to throw deep, his accuracy does suffer on the long ball. He also has a bit of a windup (the "elongated release" you were talking of?) on the deep ball, but none on the intermediate throws. He is also laser accurate on short and intermediate passes.
Orton has a lot of potential, maybe as much as Smith, but it will require a couple of years of grooming and some serious weight training.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

The Sporting News on Alex Smith- "Adequate arm strength, but not good. Can make most NFL throws, but can't deliver the ball into tight spots."

The Sporting News on Kyle Orton- "Has a powerful arm and can make all the downfield throws and put the ball in the tightest of spots."

It's just one example of something in Orton's favor. I'm not disagreeing that Smith is the better pro prospect. But, is he really worth a $20M signing bonus when compared to guys like Campbell, Frye, and Orton? I don't see a convincing argument that Smith has that much more potential than any of those guys.

I didn't say anything about arm strength. In fact, I think some people here are overrating Smith's arm. He should fill out and get somewhat stronger including velocity, but I doubt he'll ever have a big arm.

I tend to make instant judgments regarding key aspects of a position. Orton probably does have a better arm than Smith. But the first time I saw his release I rejected him immediately, in regard to NFL potential. You can't have that built-in delay, from decision being made to the time the ball leaves your hand. Those 1-4 tenths of a second can't be made up in the NFL. Orton is still moving hand forward while other QBs have long since released the ball. Just my opinion. As someone mentioned here earlier today, Byron Leftwich has a long delivery.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

A lot of people said that Marino's throwing mechanics were off. Shula told Dan to not listen to those people and to not change a thing. Not comparing Orton to Marino, just pointing out that there is no such thing as a particular release disqualifing a QB from NFL success.

I do agree with you that Smith is the better choice right now. Ive seen a few of Orton's games this season and last and while he has the ability to throw deep, his accuracy does suffer on the long ball. He also has a bit of a windup (the "elongated release" you were talking of?) on the deep ball, but none on the intermediate throws. He is also laser accurate on short and intermediate passes.
Orton has a lot of potential, maybe as much as Smith, but it will require a couple of years of grooming and some serious weight training.

It was amazing with Marino. The criticism was just the opposite, that his release was too short. I've never heard that before or since. I distinctly remember Bobby Beathard, who was GM of the Redskins, saying "he pushes the ball." That was hardly a compliment. He meant Marino pushed it more than threw it. Of course, Marino was coming off a downer senior year and everyone was trying to find a rationale.

 

[Jaj]

I didn't say anything about arm strength. In fact, I think some people here are overrating Smith's arm. He should fill out and get somewhat stronger including velocity, but I doubt he'll ever have a big arm.

I tend to make instant judgments regarding key aspects of a position. Orton probably does have a better arm than Smith. But the first time I saw his release I rejected him immediately, in regard to NFL potential. You can't have that built-in delay, from decision being made to the time the ball leaves your hand. Those 1-4 tenths of a second can't be made up in the NFL. Orton is still moving hand forward while other QBs have long since released the ball. Just my opinion. As someone mentioned here earlier today, Byron Leftwich has a long delivery.

That can be corrected however on the NFL level. Orton has two things that can go a long way in the NFL, he's got the physical tools and intermediate accuracy. Most players who enter the draft can't throw the long ball very well. However, A.J. Feeley can't either even with his arm strength. Frerrote has a better deep ball than Feeley even. Orton would be a good prospect in the 3-4 to take a shot on to develop. He needs to get in shape and dedicate himself.