Kyler Murray Declares For Nfl

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by napsndreds, Jan 9, 2019.

  1. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    I don't think so. Rosen is nothing like Mahomes. His biggest weaknesses are Mahomes' biggest strengths. I have posted this link elsewhere tonight and I think I posted it here prior to last year's draft. The website footballsfuture.com has the best collection of draft analysts I have seen, along with this forum. One of the top guys posted this analysis of Josh Rosen prior to the draft. The movement numbers and 3rd down numbers were startling:

    https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/9370-why-josh-rosen-isn’t-the-quarterback-you-think-he-is/

    "According to Solak, Rosen ranks second-to-last in accuracy outside the pocket, third-to-last in placement outside the pocket, and dead-last (by a wide margin) in accuracy AND placement from a “move platform.” NFL.com has Rosen listed as completing just 42.4 percent of his passes when asked to move."

    ***

    IMO, it is not complicated. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa are the only three guys I have ever seen who averaged above 11 YPA over an entire college season.

    They will be the first pick in three consecutive drafts
     
  2. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    It's such a freakish stat that many gloss over it. The thing that people don't seem to get, when saying that Mayfield is a much better passer, is that Murray - if ever so slightly - put up even better passing stats in the same offense, on the same team, the very next season. Mayfield is more polished as a passer, but he came out as polished as it gets. There's a reason people compared him to Drew Brees. Murray, though, is a more dynamic passer than Mayfield. Because of his athleticism and arm strength (which looks better than Mayfield's to my eye), he's able to make plays that Mayfield simply cannot - just like Russell Wilson is able to make plays that Drew Brees cannot.

    Mayfield had the advantage of treating football as a full-time job; whereas, Murray split time with baseball. Assuming Murray devotes his time to football, he should pick up nuances quickly. He's clearly a natural - instinctive and bright. Even if Murray comes in absurdly short - say 5'8 1/2" - it doesn't change much. At a certain point - probably 6'2/6'3 - you're not seeing over the line. You're looking through lanes. It's one of the reasons many shorter QB's who process things quickly don't get balls batted as often as taller QB's who process things slowly/not as quickly. Especially with as much shotgun as teams runs, and the tendency to really only pass from under center in play-action situations, which naturally creates room between the line and the QB, it's just not a big deal.

    In terms of passing talent, Murray has what you want and need. In terms of running talent, he's the quickest QB since Mike Vick - maybe quicker but obv not as fast. If your OC can't do something with that, you need a new OC. He's also one of the few QB's who doesn't need a great OL to thrive - because he is so quick and instinctive. That's a big deal to me when projecting a QB without knowing his destination.
     
  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    It doesn't matter what you or I think. It matters what they think. They hired Kliff Kingsbury because of what he has done with QBs, the best of which is clearly Patrick Mahomes. They hired him to do that with Josh Rosen and that's their mindset right now. I think you're getting caught up in semantics.
     
  4. TruePoizon

    TruePoizon A True Fan

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    my fear is that, say we draft Murray and he decides after a year to pursue baseball instead. Big waste of a pick.
     
  5. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Da Dalphins

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    Safe picks are not always the best one...
     
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  6. finomenal

    finomenal FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Do you have a top 10 grade on him or 1st round? I have a feeling he'll end up going #1 overall to a team who trades up.
     
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  7. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Top 10 on Murray. Other Top 10 guys at this stage for me are Quinnen Williams, Jonah Williams, Ed Oliver, Josh Allen, and Nick Bosa. Haven't seen elite athleticism from the top CB's, but the Combine could propel one or two.
     
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  8. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    My top 12-

    Q Williams
    Bosa
    Allen
    Murray
    J Williams
    Oliver
    White
    G Williams
    Wilkins
    Baker
    Haskins
    Locke
     
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  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Pretty good list. With regard to how I'd guess they'll rank on my board: Maybe to Greedy and Baker, depending on how they test. Murphy and Love are right there. Probably to White. I give QB's their own ranking, because the position is so unique, but Haskins is in the discussion for me. Locke is not. I like Wilkins, but I'll probably have a top-40 grade, rather than a top-20 grade on him. Last year, I had 17 (I think) top-20 non-QB's, with Mayfield and Darnold getting top-10 grades and Rosen getting a generic 1st.
     
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  10. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    You just can’t teach that kids feel for space in the run and pass game. He’s got it in spades.

    Stands out in a big way.
     
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  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    White will probably be a top-20, not top-10 guy for me. Kuechly, Shazier, and Roquan Smith are the only top-10 LB's I've seen this decade. Need a special player to overcome the value deficit inherent in the position, but I did have LVE and Edmunds as top-20 grades and among the 10 best non-QB's in 2018. White could be in a similar situation for me.

    Jachai Polite and Jeffery Simmons are likely top-20 guys as well. Brian Burns could be, depending on how he weighs in/tests, and Juan Thornhill could be in that range. He's super versatile, instinctive, and he's a bigtime playmaker. Doubt any of the receivers grade as top 20, but a handful could make top 40. No RB's. It's early in the process, and some guys will rise and fall with testing. There aren't a lot of players at positions of high value that really wow me, though.
     
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  12. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I agree on Locke. I just think he will go top 10 based on arm strength. I like Greedys length over the CBs but combine will be telling.
    I really like Wilkins. He reminds me of a Minkah type player. Kind of guy you want on your team.
     
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  13. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    The one RB that I would consider as a late RD1 to contending team that is strong in trenches is Josh Jacobs. He is a terrific combo of speed power and elusiveness. Maybe Ravens.
     
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  14. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    That's super rich for me. Think you can get one of Barnes, Williams, Henderson on Day 3, and they all look like quality backs. Jacobs is cool, but RB is way too situation-dependent to consider in the 1st unless you're looking at a phenom. They also wear down and are extremely cheap. From a team-building perspective, it just doesn't make sense.
     
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  15. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    I would ordinarily tend to agree - RBs can be had in later Rds from a value perspective.
    Couple points- I do think this kid is special- maybe not Gurley Saquon or Elliot level- but a slight notch below. Not for Miami, but on a contending team- he can put you over the top.
    I like him better than Chubb Michel Kerryon and Jones who were top 40 picks.
    Also this 2019 draft- I see a drop in talent after 15-20 which increases this kids value.
     
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