my 2 cents
my 2 cents
Ok it is an odd time of the season to write an post titled state of the organization, but many of us as fans have packed it in for this year. When we evaluate the “state†of anything we naturally focus on the past. In this case, we should look at the past if for nothing more than to offer some perspective as to how we a once proud franchise has evolved into one of the three worst teams in the NFL. While there are many fans that are dealing with the frustration of their favorite franchise dwelling in the depths of despair and understandably frustrated to the point of wanting to fire anyone and everyone that is currently trying to deal with the sad state of affairs we now face, we should take a step back at times and look at the infamous “big picture†and evaluate where we have been and where we are going…as for where we are now in the process, that will be an individual judgment that each of us can make.
The truly great organizations that are perennially near the top of their perspective sports generally have a solid owner and organizational structure. While our owner is truly committed and I believe wants to be a standout owner, there are some questions regarding H. Wayne Huizenga’s handling of certain situations. While his motivations are I believe solid it is his implementation of his vision that has gone help lead us to the point we are now. First we can look at the handling of a South Florida icon, Don Shula. Don Shula’s exodus from this organization was handled poorly. While it was arguably time for Shula to go as a head coach, his replacement Jimmy Johnson in essence deemed Don Shula persona non grata from the organization. Distancing a legend from the organization where his legend was built should never have been permitted by any owner.
Mr Huizenga gave JJ total control to basically do what he wanted and in turn JJ brought us questionable characters such as Cecil Collins, Gene Atkins, and Lawrence Phillips all in hopes that results would overshadow any concerns regarding the limits one would take to have a winning franchise. After JJ’s melt down and handling of the Marino situation, Mr. H basically gave JJ the green light to hire his replacement. Nowhere in business is it a good idea to let a failure as a leader hire the next leader. So onward JJ trudged to hire his buddy Dave Wannsteadt. JJ forgot to consider that Mr. Wannsteadt had put the Chicago Bears, another storied franchise in salary cap hell and taken them to the Depths only the 2006 Miami dolphins have seen. Not a good idea Mr. Huizenga to give so much control to one person. So Dave Wannsteadt proceeds to take our franchise to a 4-12 mark in 2004 after a disappointing 2003 campaign in which Mr. H bowed to the desperation of a coach wanting to keep his job in the face of growing staff meltdowns. So now we forward to the rebuilding of this franchise in which Mr. Huizenga correctly identified his lack of football knowledge and appropriately in my opinion created the position of Director of football Operations. Mr. Huizenga once again opened his pocketbook and convinced another Dolphin icon Dan Marino to come aboard. The only problem was that the position was basically responsible for nothing more than being a liaison between the organization and Mr. H. Dan promptly assessed the role and said thanks but no thanks.
Once again Mr. H opens his pocketbook and hires the flavor of the day Nick Saban, and gives Nick the all the power. Nick promptly hires a coaching staff with a payroll that is reminiscent of Enron management. Coincidentally to date we have had the same results. While all of this is nothing more than historical fodder and buried in the past to some degree, there are two issues that will affect the state of the franchise going forward. The first being the willingness of Mr. H to dole out the funds in order to make this franchise great again. This is the most encouraging issue as we view the past to see the future. Past behavior is the best indicator of future actions and accomplishments. And Mr. H has spared no expense, including hiring Coach’s, building the best facilities and staying hands off as an owner. The second issue is more troubling. When all the power is given to one person it endangers the entire organization, not from a standpoint of ability but simply from workload and empowerment of others in the organization. It is a scary thought but what if Nick Saban got hit by a bus or simply decided to call it a career tomorrow. We would find out quickly that we do not have an organization but rather we are relying on a person, whether this single person is qualified is not yet known. I truly believe that Mr. H wants to be the best, but his decisions are troubling as his reliance on specific individuals rather than a collective group of individuals. Carolina would go on without John Fox, Marty Hurney would make sure of that, the Patriots and Scott Pioli would go on without Bill Bellichick and the Miami Dolphins would panic without Nick Saban, regardless of your opinion of the job he is doing.
So Mr. Saban has given us a winning season and had us believing that our turnaround had begun. This season has reminded us that the NFL is not about hope and quick fixes but about solid long term management of an organization. Where exactly we are in that process is murky at best because of what Mr. Saban inherited. Now we can look at the gritty details of the recent past. This organization chose to invest long term in players such as Jason Taylor, Marty Booker, Zach Thomas, Randy McMicheal, Chris Chambers and Jeno James. It does not take a detailed football fan to see that the investment in these players individually has not helped the sum of the organization. Whether these players are worth their salary or not; it is a fact that their salaries have affected our ability to be flexible regarding free agency and trades. So Nick basically inherited a mess. For those that want to sign Orlando Pace, Drew Brees, Hutch and every other top flight free agent out there, the reality is that the money simply was not there. The implications of creating that space are more detrimental than enduring a couple losing seasons for the long term. The best we could hope for was an LJ Shelton and Will Allen. Mr. Saban has taken a lot of heat for his signings but you get what you pay for and you only have a finite amount of dollars. Alas Nick is not totally off the hook either, many have questioned his decision to pursue Duante Culpepper rather than Drew Brees, which looks like a bad decision in retrospect, however given the information at the time it was a legitimate decision and does not qualify Saban for the idiot of the year award. So a bad decision based on information and evaluation that was legitimate, I see no problems with the process but still in retrospect probably a bad decision. Also Nick has taken heat for drafting Ronnie Brown. Ronnie Brown is truly making Chicken Soup from Chicken feathers with the room he has had to run and with number of legitimate game changing threats he has surrounding him. I ask when looking back, who else was there that better fit the number 2 pick? Also for those that want to trade down and acquire 86 picks in every draft….it takes a trading partner willing to give you equal value.
So here we are, a couple bad decisions but overall a decent overall process for making those decisions in a poor organizationally structured franchise. Where we are in the process Nick so loves to talk about now? Well we have dead cap eaten up in bonuses paid to ex dolphins that never saw the field., we have Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Marty Booker, Chris Chambers, and Randy McMicheal eating up an extraordinary percentage of our cap for 2007 and 2008. Cutting these players accelerates the cap hit, and no one is going to trade for an over 30 high cap figure player and give you legitimate value in return. So we are forced to suffer through the misdeeds of our past. For those that simply say trade X player or cut em today…not going to happen the only player legitimately in danger is none other than Daunte Culpepper. His contract is such that the hit would be a savings as opposed to having to pay the entire amount of his compensation next year as most of his money is in roster bonus and salary. The amortized bonus part while high is nothing compared to the actual earnings potential for 2007. A decision must be made on C-Pepp before next year. As for other players not likely to be seen next year due to their contract structure and the value that could be created compared to their performance….in my opinion say goodbye to the following; Jeno James, Kendyll Jacox, Travis Minor, Jeff Zgonina, Keith Traylor, Kevin Carter, Vonnie Holiday, Donnie Spragen, Taveras Tillman and Olindo Mare. Decision and restructuring may be in the works for players such as Joey Harrington, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, and Sammy Morris. Overall the first three years of the Saban era will ultimately end up being about overhauling the middle part and bottom part of the roster in my opinion. The top end free agents and any big moves will come after the huge contracts are dealt with. So folks prepare for more of the same the next two years and hopefully we will find a gem or bargin and win a few more games in that time frame.
So for 2007 we should see some more salary cap space although I doubt Nick will put us in the same position with different names as far as long term top end free agents. Sorry to all the Lance Briggs fans. A solid 2007 draft and hopefully we can do some maneuvering to gain addition chances to find that gem. As for positional breakdowns for 2007 the way I see them.
Quarterbacks: A decision has to be made on Culpepper and Harrington. I do not see both back and although C-Pepp may regain his form, in my opinion I would have to see more than what I have seen so far. Although Joey Harrington may not be the 7 year “answerâ€Â, I think he may be our QB for the next 2-3 seasons in a short term deal. Lemon probably will return but as a number 2 and not a number 3. I see us taking a shot at a mid round QB or young lower priority free agent type as our number 3. When our cap is no longer eaten up by CC, Zach and JT..We may either have our QB in Harrington or make the investment needed to get one in 2008 or 2009.
Running backs: Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and a low pick or free agent or late training camp addition as our number 3. At fullback Darien Barnes will face competition next year from someone already on our roster…Kyle Eckel. Fullback is not a high profile high qualification position in this offense.
Receivers: Although CC is a perennial tease and not a number 1, you cannot cut him because of the cap hit and his eternal “potentialâ€Â, I doubt there is anyone willing to give equal value based on his production and contract, so basically we are stuck. So say goodbye to Marty Booker. Booker will either have to restructure or be gone. It is impossible for me to see spending over 12 million dollars of 2007 cap space for this tandem. Wes Welker is a restricted free agent and hopefully we keep him at market price which will be a raise for him. Hagan should go into camp as the number 2 guy. Vick, Gibson, and others will audition along with draft picks for the #4 and 5 spots given we resign Welker. At TE McMicheal is too costly to move and not real attractive to others..So he returns. The perennial search for a solid # 3 developmental guy continues.
Offensive Line: Sorry but Shelton will probably be back. He is not a superstar but his contract is not extraordinary given he is supposed to be our LT. Now if D-Mac, Alabi or a draft pick beats him out at LT, I doubt his salary will be on our books as a RG or backup. Alabi, Orrin Thompson and any draft picks or other low priority free agents will be in the mix as well as D_Mac whom we hopefully will resign to bring to camp. Vernon Carey has improved every year and is our best lineman, which is a little like being the skinniest girl at a fat farm. Jeno James will have played his last game as a Dolphin by Training Camp 2007. McKinney, Hadnot, Toledo, Pape, Berger and low priority free agents and draft picks will be in the mix inside.
Specialists: Goodbye Olindo Mare. Clutch misses and high salary do not get covered by lots of touchbacks. Denney and Jones will return.
Defensive Linemen: This is the first area we will see the Saban effect in my opinion. The high cap hits of Carter, Zgonina, Bowens and Holliday will be gone and we will see Roth, Evans, the Wright brothers hopefully, and Kevin Vickerson start to play and maybe we will say…Nick knew what he was doing on the Defensive Line. JT is in the same situation as Zach…limited return value, too costly to cut and probably not many trade partners..Also he is still productive.
Linebackers: Zach is a Dolphin until he decides he does not want to be. His cap hit is enormous but cutting him would cost slightly more. Spragen should be gone and Pope is the only keeper among the backups. Look for some mid level free agents and draft picks to compete here. Crowder has star potential and his contract is coming due in the area we have some space coming available. He should be a Dolphin for a long time.
Defensive Backs: Overall no one with the exception of Tillman is a has cut potential because of the cap. Tillman is very replaceable, but the overall group would be better if Travis Daniels was a #3 corner instead of a #1. Will Poole is on IR but who would prefer Michael Lehan or Eddie Jackson instead of a healthy Will Poole. Although he has disappeared and has had injury concerns, do not be surprised to see Will Poole as a #4 or 5 corner at worst.
Overall in the draft I hope we continue to take the best player at whatever pick we are drafting at. The only position I do not see us potentially taking with our number one pick is QB (too early in our rebuilding process to ignore other positions of greater need) and DL (too many young prospects with high upside). In free agency, I can see Nick possibly taking mid level and low level younger prospects but we simply do not have the cap space not is it coming available for us to pursue the Lance Briggs of the world. So the future going forward in my humble opinion is more of the same for the next two years although hopefully we will see more wins, there is no Super Bowl in our future for 2007 or 2008. This should not be a reflection of Nick although his Culpepper decision definitely could put us back a year in the overall process.
The truly great organizations that are perennially near the top of their perspective sports generally have a solid owner and organizational structure. While our owner is truly committed and I believe wants to be a standout owner, there are some questions regarding H. Wayne Huizenga’s handling of certain situations. While his motivations are I believe solid it is his implementation of his vision that has gone help lead us to the point we are now. First we can look at the handling of a South Florida icon, Don Shula. Don Shula’s exodus from this organization was handled poorly. While it was arguably time for Shula to go as a head coach, his replacement Jimmy Johnson in essence deemed Don Shula persona non grata from the organization. Distancing a legend from the organization where his legend was built should never have been permitted by any owner.
Mr Huizenga gave JJ total control to basically do what he wanted and in turn JJ brought us questionable characters such as Cecil Collins, Gene Atkins, and Lawrence Phillips all in hopes that results would overshadow any concerns regarding the limits one would take to have a winning franchise. After JJ’s melt down and handling of the Marino situation, Mr. H basically gave JJ the green light to hire his replacement. Nowhere in business is it a good idea to let a failure as a leader hire the next leader. So onward JJ trudged to hire his buddy Dave Wannsteadt. JJ forgot to consider that Mr. Wannsteadt had put the Chicago Bears, another storied franchise in salary cap hell and taken them to the Depths only the 2006 Miami dolphins have seen. Not a good idea Mr. Huizenga to give so much control to one person. So Dave Wannsteadt proceeds to take our franchise to a 4-12 mark in 2004 after a disappointing 2003 campaign in which Mr. H bowed to the desperation of a coach wanting to keep his job in the face of growing staff meltdowns. So now we forward to the rebuilding of this franchise in which Mr. Huizenga correctly identified his lack of football knowledge and appropriately in my opinion created the position of Director of football Operations. Mr. Huizenga once again opened his pocketbook and convinced another Dolphin icon Dan Marino to come aboard. The only problem was that the position was basically responsible for nothing more than being a liaison between the organization and Mr. H. Dan promptly assessed the role and said thanks but no thanks.
Once again Mr. H opens his pocketbook and hires the flavor of the day Nick Saban, and gives Nick the all the power. Nick promptly hires a coaching staff with a payroll that is reminiscent of Enron management. Coincidentally to date we have had the same results. While all of this is nothing more than historical fodder and buried in the past to some degree, there are two issues that will affect the state of the franchise going forward. The first being the willingness of Mr. H to dole out the funds in order to make this franchise great again. This is the most encouraging issue as we view the past to see the future. Past behavior is the best indicator of future actions and accomplishments. And Mr. H has spared no expense, including hiring Coach’s, building the best facilities and staying hands off as an owner. The second issue is more troubling. When all the power is given to one person it endangers the entire organization, not from a standpoint of ability but simply from workload and empowerment of others in the organization. It is a scary thought but what if Nick Saban got hit by a bus or simply decided to call it a career tomorrow. We would find out quickly that we do not have an organization but rather we are relying on a person, whether this single person is qualified is not yet known. I truly believe that Mr. H wants to be the best, but his decisions are troubling as his reliance on specific individuals rather than a collective group of individuals. Carolina would go on without John Fox, Marty Hurney would make sure of that, the Patriots and Scott Pioli would go on without Bill Bellichick and the Miami Dolphins would panic without Nick Saban, regardless of your opinion of the job he is doing.
So Mr. Saban has given us a winning season and had us believing that our turnaround had begun. This season has reminded us that the NFL is not about hope and quick fixes but about solid long term management of an organization. Where exactly we are in that process is murky at best because of what Mr. Saban inherited. Now we can look at the gritty details of the recent past. This organization chose to invest long term in players such as Jason Taylor, Marty Booker, Zach Thomas, Randy McMicheal, Chris Chambers and Jeno James. It does not take a detailed football fan to see that the investment in these players individually has not helped the sum of the organization. Whether these players are worth their salary or not; it is a fact that their salaries have affected our ability to be flexible regarding free agency and trades. So Nick basically inherited a mess. For those that want to sign Orlando Pace, Drew Brees, Hutch and every other top flight free agent out there, the reality is that the money simply was not there. The implications of creating that space are more detrimental than enduring a couple losing seasons for the long term. The best we could hope for was an LJ Shelton and Will Allen. Mr. Saban has taken a lot of heat for his signings but you get what you pay for and you only have a finite amount of dollars. Alas Nick is not totally off the hook either, many have questioned his decision to pursue Duante Culpepper rather than Drew Brees, which looks like a bad decision in retrospect, however given the information at the time it was a legitimate decision and does not qualify Saban for the idiot of the year award. So a bad decision based on information and evaluation that was legitimate, I see no problems with the process but still in retrospect probably a bad decision. Also Nick has taken heat for drafting Ronnie Brown. Ronnie Brown is truly making Chicken Soup from Chicken feathers with the room he has had to run and with number of legitimate game changing threats he has surrounding him. I ask when looking back, who else was there that better fit the number 2 pick? Also for those that want to trade down and acquire 86 picks in every draft….it takes a trading partner willing to give you equal value.
So here we are, a couple bad decisions but overall a decent overall process for making those decisions in a poor organizationally structured franchise. Where we are in the process Nick so loves to talk about now? Well we have dead cap eaten up in bonuses paid to ex dolphins that never saw the field., we have Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Marty Booker, Chris Chambers, and Randy McMicheal eating up an extraordinary percentage of our cap for 2007 and 2008. Cutting these players accelerates the cap hit, and no one is going to trade for an over 30 high cap figure player and give you legitimate value in return. So we are forced to suffer through the misdeeds of our past. For those that simply say trade X player or cut em today…not going to happen the only player legitimately in danger is none other than Daunte Culpepper. His contract is such that the hit would be a savings as opposed to having to pay the entire amount of his compensation next year as most of his money is in roster bonus and salary. The amortized bonus part while high is nothing compared to the actual earnings potential for 2007. A decision must be made on C-Pepp before next year. As for other players not likely to be seen next year due to their contract structure and the value that could be created compared to their performance….in my opinion say goodbye to the following; Jeno James, Kendyll Jacox, Travis Minor, Jeff Zgonina, Keith Traylor, Kevin Carter, Vonnie Holiday, Donnie Spragen, Taveras Tillman and Olindo Mare. Decision and restructuring may be in the works for players such as Joey Harrington, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, and Sammy Morris. Overall the first three years of the Saban era will ultimately end up being about overhauling the middle part and bottom part of the roster in my opinion. The top end free agents and any big moves will come after the huge contracts are dealt with. So folks prepare for more of the same the next two years and hopefully we will find a gem or bargin and win a few more games in that time frame.
So for 2007 we should see some more salary cap space although I doubt Nick will put us in the same position with different names as far as long term top end free agents. Sorry to all the Lance Briggs fans. A solid 2007 draft and hopefully we can do some maneuvering to gain addition chances to find that gem. As for positional breakdowns for 2007 the way I see them.
Quarterbacks: A decision has to be made on Culpepper and Harrington. I do not see both back and although C-Pepp may regain his form, in my opinion I would have to see more than what I have seen so far. Although Joey Harrington may not be the 7 year “answerâ€Â, I think he may be our QB for the next 2-3 seasons in a short term deal. Lemon probably will return but as a number 2 and not a number 3. I see us taking a shot at a mid round QB or young lower priority free agent type as our number 3. When our cap is no longer eaten up by CC, Zach and JT..We may either have our QB in Harrington or make the investment needed to get one in 2008 or 2009.
Running backs: Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and a low pick or free agent or late training camp addition as our number 3. At fullback Darien Barnes will face competition next year from someone already on our roster…Kyle Eckel. Fullback is not a high profile high qualification position in this offense.
Receivers: Although CC is a perennial tease and not a number 1, you cannot cut him because of the cap hit and his eternal “potentialâ€Â, I doubt there is anyone willing to give equal value based on his production and contract, so basically we are stuck. So say goodbye to Marty Booker. Booker will either have to restructure or be gone. It is impossible for me to see spending over 12 million dollars of 2007 cap space for this tandem. Wes Welker is a restricted free agent and hopefully we keep him at market price which will be a raise for him. Hagan should go into camp as the number 2 guy. Vick, Gibson, and others will audition along with draft picks for the #4 and 5 spots given we resign Welker. At TE McMicheal is too costly to move and not real attractive to others..So he returns. The perennial search for a solid # 3 developmental guy continues.
Offensive Line: Sorry but Shelton will probably be back. He is not a superstar but his contract is not extraordinary given he is supposed to be our LT. Now if D-Mac, Alabi or a draft pick beats him out at LT, I doubt his salary will be on our books as a RG or backup. Alabi, Orrin Thompson and any draft picks or other low priority free agents will be in the mix as well as D_Mac whom we hopefully will resign to bring to camp. Vernon Carey has improved every year and is our best lineman, which is a little like being the skinniest girl at a fat farm. Jeno James will have played his last game as a Dolphin by Training Camp 2007. McKinney, Hadnot, Toledo, Pape, Berger and low priority free agents and draft picks will be in the mix inside.
Specialists: Goodbye Olindo Mare. Clutch misses and high salary do not get covered by lots of touchbacks. Denney and Jones will return.
Defensive Linemen: This is the first area we will see the Saban effect in my opinion. The high cap hits of Carter, Zgonina, Bowens and Holliday will be gone and we will see Roth, Evans, the Wright brothers hopefully, and Kevin Vickerson start to play and maybe we will say…Nick knew what he was doing on the Defensive Line. JT is in the same situation as Zach…limited return value, too costly to cut and probably not many trade partners..Also he is still productive.
Linebackers: Zach is a Dolphin until he decides he does not want to be. His cap hit is enormous but cutting him would cost slightly more. Spragen should be gone and Pope is the only keeper among the backups. Look for some mid level free agents and draft picks to compete here. Crowder has star potential and his contract is coming due in the area we have some space coming available. He should be a Dolphin for a long time.
Defensive Backs: Overall no one with the exception of Tillman is a has cut potential because of the cap. Tillman is very replaceable, but the overall group would be better if Travis Daniels was a #3 corner instead of a #1. Will Poole is on IR but who would prefer Michael Lehan or Eddie Jackson instead of a healthy Will Poole. Although he has disappeared and has had injury concerns, do not be surprised to see Will Poole as a #4 or 5 corner at worst.
Overall in the draft I hope we continue to take the best player at whatever pick we are drafting at. The only position I do not see us potentially taking with our number one pick is QB (too early in our rebuilding process to ignore other positions of greater need) and DL (too many young prospects with high upside). In free agency, I can see Nick possibly taking mid level and low level younger prospects but we simply do not have the cap space not is it coming available for us to pursue the Lance Briggs of the world. So the future going forward in my humble opinion is more of the same for the next two years although hopefully we will see more wins, there is no Super Bowl in our future for 2007 or 2008. This should not be a reflection of Nick although his Culpepper decision definitely could put us back a year in the overall process.
