MarinoEqualsGod
The man, the myth, the legend
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-teams-improve-2014/
Here's to a great season! :hump::up::hi5::hump:
Here's to a great season! :hump::up::hi5::hump:
Look who's on the front of ESPN.com in the Grantlad section (Teams on the Rise)
- Thread starter MarinoEqualsGod
- Start date
DisturbedShifty
Peace out
That's pretty cool. Though I have to ask. Why is being featured on Grantland that big of a deal?
Miami Dolphins
2013 Record: 8-8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.5 (overperformed by 0.5 wins, 12th-luckiest team in NFL)
Record in Games Decided by Seven Points or Fewer: 6-4 (.600, 10th-luckiest)
2013 Strength of Schedule: 0.502 (11th-toughest)
Estimated 2014 Strength of Schedule: eighth-easiest
Turnover Margin: minus-2
2014 Out-of-Division Schedule: NFC North, AFC West, vs. Ravens, at Jaguars
Miami, quite memorably, could have clinched a playoff spot in the AFC with a win in either of its final two games against division rivals with nothing to play for. It didn’t go so well; the Dolphins laid an absolute egg in one of the worst performances of the season, a 19-0 loss in Buffalo, before losing 20-7 at home to the Jets in the season finale. It was the worst a team has played with a playoff spot on the line since the 2004 Bills lost a home game in Week 17 to a Steelers team with absolutely nothing to play for. Buffalo has never recovered from that game; it’s a combined 54-90 since then and hasn’t come close to sniffing a playoff spot. Will the Dolphins suffer the same cruel fate?
I don’t think they will. It’s fair to say the Dolphins were fielding just about the worst possible offensive line the NFL will allow you to suit up by the end of last season, as a porous unit was hit by the departure of Jonathan Martin and the suspension of Richie Incognito. I would say the linemen at the core of those hazing allegations were distracted by the national attention, but having read the transcripts, I doubt they’re particularly aware of what’s going on in reality at any given moment. In any case, the only holdover from last year’s line is the most talented player, center Mike Pouncey, who will miss at least the first two weeks after undergoing offseason hip surgery. Miami will start five new linemen in Week 1, and although there aren’t any guarantees the line will be great, having professionals like Branden Albert around should be an upgrade toward adequacy. Miami also invested a first-round pick on Ja’Wuan James (who will play right tackle) and a third-rounder on Billy Turner (who should eventually take over a guard spot), so there’s more depth than there was a year ago.
The improved offensive line should make things easier for third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill, as I wrote about when I profiled his strengths and weaknesses in August. With the Tannehill–Mike Sherman relationship gone bust, it’s critical to see what new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor does to play to the strengths of his offense, notably wideouts Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline. Lazor’s expected to install some elements of the Philadelphia offense after coming over from Chip Kelly’s crew.
Miami’s other serious concern is fixing a run defense that ranked 29th in football last year, as opposing teams ran for 133 yards or more 10 times. Handicapped by the largesse of deposed4 general manager Jeff Ireland, the Dolphins are stuck shuffling chairs around instead of investing in replacements for their front seven. Just one year after signing him to a five-year, $35 million deal to be their middle linebacker of the future, the Dolphins are moving Dannell Ellerbe to the weak side and shifting Koa Misi into the middle. And the less said about third linebacker Philip Wheeler’s 2013, the better. Fortunately, Ireland guaranteed Wheeler’s $5 million base salary for 2014, so the Dolphins couldn’t cut him this offseason. Miami also lost underrated defensive tackle Paul Soliai to the Falcons in free agency and has milk-carton pass-rusher Dion Jordan (who had two sacks last year after the Dolphins traded up to take him with the third pick) out for the first four games because of a PED suspension, so I have significantly less faith that the run defense will actually get much better in 2014. If the Dolphins can keep Tannehill upright, I think he has enough potential to keep them competitive with Baltimore for a wild-card spot. Because they’ll play the Ravens at home, I’m pegging the Dolphins to narrowly beat out Flacco & Co. for the final spot in the AFC playoffs. Unless the Bills get in the way again.
Best-Case Scenario: Tannehill has a Nick Foles–esque breakout year in his new offensive scheme and the Dolphins ride a dominant rush to some of the best pass defense in football, producing double-digit wins for the first time since the Chad Pennington/Tony Sparano magic of 2008.
Worst-Case Scenario: An early-season injury to Tannehill leaves Miami running an up-tempo offense with Matt Moore, which goes about as well as those words sound in a sentence. Cameron Wake — who is secretly three months older than Jared Allen — reveals himself to be on the downside of his career, as Jordan continues to have Shea McClellin’s career in better weather for more money.
2013 Record: 8-8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.5 (overperformed by 0.5 wins, 12th-luckiest team in NFL)
Record in Games Decided by Seven Points or Fewer: 6-4 (.600, 10th-luckiest)
2013 Strength of Schedule: 0.502 (11th-toughest)
Estimated 2014 Strength of Schedule: eighth-easiest
Turnover Margin: minus-2
2014 Out-of-Division Schedule: NFC North, AFC West, vs. Ravens, at Jaguars
Miami, quite memorably, could have clinched a playoff spot in the AFC with a win in either of its final two games against division rivals with nothing to play for. It didn’t go so well; the Dolphins laid an absolute egg in one of the worst performances of the season, a 19-0 loss in Buffalo, before losing 20-7 at home to the Jets in the season finale. It was the worst a team has played with a playoff spot on the line since the 2004 Bills lost a home game in Week 17 to a Steelers team with absolutely nothing to play for. Buffalo has never recovered from that game; it’s a combined 54-90 since then and hasn’t come close to sniffing a playoff spot. Will the Dolphins suffer the same cruel fate?
I don’t think they will. It’s fair to say the Dolphins were fielding just about the worst possible offensive line the NFL will allow you to suit up by the end of last season, as a porous unit was hit by the departure of Jonathan Martin and the suspension of Richie Incognito. I would say the linemen at the core of those hazing allegations were distracted by the national attention, but having read the transcripts, I doubt they’re particularly aware of what’s going on in reality at any given moment. In any case, the only holdover from last year’s line is the most talented player, center Mike Pouncey, who will miss at least the first two weeks after undergoing offseason hip surgery. Miami will start five new linemen in Week 1, and although there aren’t any guarantees the line will be great, having professionals like Branden Albert around should be an upgrade toward adequacy. Miami also invested a first-round pick on Ja’Wuan James (who will play right tackle) and a third-rounder on Billy Turner (who should eventually take over a guard spot), so there’s more depth than there was a year ago.
The improved offensive line should make things easier for third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill, as I wrote about when I profiled his strengths and weaknesses in August. With the Tannehill–Mike Sherman relationship gone bust, it’s critical to see what new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor does to play to the strengths of his offense, notably wideouts Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline. Lazor’s expected to install some elements of the Philadelphia offense after coming over from Chip Kelly’s crew.
Miami’s other serious concern is fixing a run defense that ranked 29th in football last year, as opposing teams ran for 133 yards or more 10 times. Handicapped by the largesse of deposed4 general manager Jeff Ireland, the Dolphins are stuck shuffling chairs around instead of investing in replacements for their front seven. Just one year after signing him to a five-year, $35 million deal to be their middle linebacker of the future, the Dolphins are moving Dannell Ellerbe to the weak side and shifting Koa Misi into the middle. And the less said about third linebacker Philip Wheeler’s 2013, the better. Fortunately, Ireland guaranteed Wheeler’s $5 million base salary for 2014, so the Dolphins couldn’t cut him this offseason. Miami also lost underrated defensive tackle Paul Soliai to the Falcons in free agency and has milk-carton pass-rusher Dion Jordan (who had two sacks last year after the Dolphins traded up to take him with the third pick) out for the first four games because of a PED suspension, so I have significantly less faith that the run defense will actually get much better in 2014. If the Dolphins can keep Tannehill upright, I think he has enough potential to keep them competitive with Baltimore for a wild-card spot. Because they’ll play the Ravens at home, I’m pegging the Dolphins to narrowly beat out Flacco & Co. for the final spot in the AFC playoffs. Unless the Bills get in the way again.
Best-Case Scenario: Tannehill has a Nick Foles–esque breakout year in his new offensive scheme and the Dolphins ride a dominant rush to some of the best pass defense in football, producing double-digit wins for the first time since the Chad Pennington/Tony Sparano magic of 2008.
Worst-Case Scenario: An early-season injury to Tannehill leaves Miami running an up-tempo offense with Matt Moore, which goes about as well as those words sound in a sentence. Cameron Wake — who is secretly three months older than Jared Allen — reveals himself to be on the downside of his career, as Jordan continues to have Shea McClellin’s career in better weather for more money.
It is typically well written and respected...Bill Simmons lends a lot of cred....
MarinoEqualsGod
The man, the myth, the legend
It's moreso because the link on the front of ESPN has that same picture of Tannehil. It's not the main picture, but one of the smaller ones in the Grantland section below the top headlines...
where's th'fish
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Simmons doesn't know much about football, but I suppose he might know who does. Barnwell, in any case, is a good writer. I used to think he hated the Dolphins, but at a time when most are down on the fins, he's picking them to be a wild-card, so maybe I'm wrong.
Don't get wrong, Barnwell is still good even when he doesn't like the Dolphins. You might not know it from reading this forum, but one thing has nothing to do with the other.
Simmons rarely write about football...he has assembled a good team and many articles are very well written with plenty of examples and good explanations.
MarinoEqualsGod
The man, the myth, the legend
If you include his picks column, he writes about football at least once a week.
DisturbedShifty
Peace out
Oh, ok. I wasn't sure is all. Usually the words ESPN and Miami Dolphins usually doesn't bode well.
roy_miami
2020 cant get here soon enough
Interesting the prediction is 8th easiest schedule which is the opposite of the average fan who seems to be under the impression we have the toughest sked in the league.
I listen to all their NFL podcasts and in one of the earlier ones they briefly talked about the Dolphins and Mays said 'don't get me started on them, they're going to be horrible. But lets save that for the AFCE edition.' Then there was none of that talk during the actual AFCE podcast, its as if they came to their senses after studying the team in depth. I think the perception is we embarrassingly lost back to back games as 95% favorites, and that is going to carry over to this season.
Here is the reality for me:
-we were dogs at Buffalo and depending on how bad Tannehill's knee was we might have been dogs week 17 too, at the very least it was a lot closer to a coin flip than a surefire victory.
-just getting rid of the asshat Jeff Ireland is going to be a huge morale boost for most of the locker room, it doesn't even matter if Hickey is a worse GM or an even bigger asshat right now.
-Albert and James will likely look like bad signings years from now but they could be exactly what the doctor ordered for the team right now.
-this is the deepest most talented roster I can remember for the longest time.
-and last but not least, I have analytical data that suggests Philbin might be elite right now, which (and I know I'm pretty much alone here) is backed up with what I see with my eyes. Here's what you need to understand about analytics: if there is a stat that suggests elite then chances are quite good that it is a predictive stat. If I knew nothing of Russell Wilson except his passer rating stats I would say he's highly likely to turn out to be elite. I actually do know basically nothing of college football but I'll go out on a limb and say AJ McCarron's analyitics jump off the page to me as a likely candidate to be a very successful QB.
As for what I see with my eyes I'm like the Nate Silver of evaluating head coaches. I have a very simple rule: if you manage the game properly you are probably a good coach. Thats it. Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick and Joe Philbin are three of the best at game management in the game today. Contrast that with three of the worst I've seen Tony Sparano, Jason Garrett and Jim Schwartz.
Understanding what proper game management is is the difficult bit however. I know a bunch of you donkeys are going to try to come up with some game management mistakes but you are wrong, you just are. If I am an expert on anything I'm an expert at game theory. Everybody thinks they are an expert, and I've learned through the years that its fruitless to try to show a donkey why he is a donkey, but the truth of the matter is most of you simply don't understand and will never understand. And the evidence of that fact is Awsi Dooger wouldn't be cleaning up in Vegas if every expert was really as good as they think they are.
Here's a simple test: anybody that thinks go/go-go was childs play I can immediately dismiss as a hopeless as far as game theory is concerned. Go/go-go was at worst EV neutral and at best brilliant. Anybody with half a clue should be able to figure out why its EV neutral. Working out how it could be brilliant is a much more difficult assignment and I'll be impressed if there is another poster on this board that can get to that conclusion.
I listen to all their NFL podcasts and in one of the earlier ones they briefly talked about the Dolphins and Mays said 'don't get me started on them, they're going to be horrible. But lets save that for the AFCE edition.' Then there was none of that talk during the actual AFCE podcast, its as if they came to their senses after studying the team in depth. I think the perception is we embarrassingly lost back to back games as 95% favorites, and that is going to carry over to this season.
Here is the reality for me:
-we were dogs at Buffalo and depending on how bad Tannehill's knee was we might have been dogs week 17 too, at the very least it was a lot closer to a coin flip than a surefire victory.
-just getting rid of the asshat Jeff Ireland is going to be a huge morale boost for most of the locker room, it doesn't even matter if Hickey is a worse GM or an even bigger asshat right now.
-Albert and James will likely look like bad signings years from now but they could be exactly what the doctor ordered for the team right now.
-this is the deepest most talented roster I can remember for the longest time.
-and last but not least, I have analytical data that suggests Philbin might be elite right now, which (and I know I'm pretty much alone here) is backed up with what I see with my eyes. Here's what you need to understand about analytics: if there is a stat that suggests elite then chances are quite good that it is a predictive stat. If I knew nothing of Russell Wilson except his passer rating stats I would say he's highly likely to turn out to be elite. I actually do know basically nothing of college football but I'll go out on a limb and say AJ McCarron's analyitics jump off the page to me as a likely candidate to be a very successful QB.
As for what I see with my eyes I'm like the Nate Silver of evaluating head coaches. I have a very simple rule: if you manage the game properly you are probably a good coach. Thats it. Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick and Joe Philbin are three of the best at game management in the game today. Contrast that with three of the worst I've seen Tony Sparano, Jason Garrett and Jim Schwartz.
Understanding what proper game management is is the difficult bit however. I know a bunch of you donkeys are going to try to come up with some game management mistakes but you are wrong, you just are. If I am an expert on anything I'm an expert at game theory. Everybody thinks they are an expert, and I've learned through the years that its fruitless to try to show a donkey why he is a donkey, but the truth of the matter is most of you simply don't understand and will never understand. And the evidence of that fact is Awsi Dooger wouldn't be cleaning up in Vegas if every expert was really as good as they think they are.
Here's a simple test: anybody that thinks go/go-go was childs play I can immediately dismiss as a hopeless as far as game theory is concerned. Go/go-go was at worst EV neutral and at best brilliant. Anybody with half a clue should be able to figure out why its EV neutral. Working out how it could be brilliant is a much more difficult assignment and I'll be impressed if there is another poster on this board that can get to that conclusion.
I don't, picks "articles" don't count....by writing I mean actually writing (which he seems to do little of these days, mostly focusing on his podcast and other media)
KTOWNFINFAN
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What is all that crap about being the 12th luckiest ?? How do they come up with that stat?? Do they get everyone on the team to pick lottery numbers and see which team comes the closest?
Dolfan Dave
Active Roster
Bill Barnwell always gives a fair shake to fins
KTOWNFINFAN
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:sidelol::sidelol::sidelol: This might be my vote for post of the year. Absolutely hilarious. What makes it so funny is I am pretty sure you were serious. So let me get this straight, you are an expert on game management/theory, and anyone who disagrees with your superior assessments are donkeys and have no idea what we are talking about? I feel like I should ask for your autograph. Your line about Awsi cleaning up in Vegas really puts your knowledge into a nutshell. Experts who write columns are not the ones setting lines in Vegas. Vegas lines are set to balance bets not guess outcomes. I can assure you there are a lot of other posters on here besides myself and Awsi who make a killing in betting on sports. Just like my thread a few weeks ago about betting the first week in preseason (which is one of the most profitable times to bet all football season). It was met with a lot of people who read handicapper headlines about not understanding the preseason, and called me crazy. But my lock DID hold up and I was 11 of 14 for the preseason.
As for your views on Philbin, well since you are a genius and I am but a donkey, I will trot out and nibble on some grass, while waiting for you in all your expertise to tell us why giving away a play before the snap of the ball is so brilliant, when players who play the game, agree with last years results, when saying it was a dumpster fire of an idea.
roy_miami
2020 cant get here soon enough
Here's another thing I've learned over the years about gambling donkeys: most, if not all of them, claim to be huge winners...