marino2duper73
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Hey FH!
Let's roll with Week 2 of the season with my X-Factors for the home opener against the Bills...
X-Factor #1 - Scheming D to replace RD
Last week for the Pats I stated the importance of Raekwon Davis and his run stopping abilities being key. Unfortunately, I was right in his relevance, as now he is on IR for a bit and there is a void vs the run game. Scheming for Buffalo will have to account for the run game, and I suspect that the Amoeba set on defense will debut this week on running downs. Many people wondered why the Fins didn't line up Amoeba vs the Patriots. That had a lot to do with the personnel NE was using on running plays. 3 WR sets, then handing the ball off. Buffalo will mimic what NE did on short-yardage situations: Stack the O-line, and motion the WR to detect the coverage. Miami most likely will bring the safeties up a bit, and go man-to-man with the CBs, giving the safeties the responsibility of lining up the LBs correctly to plug the right gaps. Also, look for the Fins to show 4 to 7 pass rushers, and peel off to disguise coverages all day. Jaelen Phillips will see more time as well.
X-Factor #2 - Albert Wilson
Albert Wilson will have a key role Sunday with his route running to free up Jaylen Waddle. With Parker running slants and deep hooks on the outside, the designed pick plays at the LOS to create lanes for Waddle will be fun to watch. Once Buffalo adjusts to zone to keep Waddle and Parker in front of the defense, look for Wilson to have opportunities in open space created in these scenarios when Buffalo doubles Gesicki over the middle. Wilson will also be set up nicely for the deep crossing route if Buffalo doubles Waddle and uses their safeties to counter on Parker's side of the field. Keep in mind that this strategy is what opened the field up for Ahmed/Gaskin in the passing game as well. Oh yeah, don't sleep on Tua finding some chunk yardage on the ground when Buffalo plays the Deep Cover 2, and Wilson clears the linebackers out with his routes as well. Of course, Wilson will see about 70% of the offensive snaps if Miami establishes the run early.
X-Factor #3 - Double-covering Diggs
I firmly believe that taking away Diggs is Miami's #1 priority. Most Fin Fans want to focus mainly on keeping Allen in the pocket, and trust X on Diggs with safety help. I think Flo knows that Diggs is their big play guy, and it's the other WRs that benefit from Diggs being taken out of the passing game. Miami's secondary is capable of handling the WR2,/WR3 vs Byron Jones with Nik Needham lurking. That will be the matchup to watch.
X-Factor #4 - Special Teams... again
Our new punter Michael Palardy was dropping dimes inside the 10 yard line all preseason, then proceeded to have a terrible day last week. New England had the benefit of great field position 3 times from bad punting. Flipping the field is crucial vs the Bills. Palardy will have to get back to preseason form and pin the Bills deep in their own territory often for Miami to have opportunities with a shorter field. Look for Palardy to bounce back and show up.
X-Factor #5 - Time of Possession/Humidity
This will be the biggest factor of the game. NE's offense had the ball over 13 minutes longer than Miami's offense opening day. With the weather forecasting 90°F and humid as all get out, keeping our defense off the field and fresh will decide this game. The Miami defense is conditioned to play in South Florida in mid-September, Buffalo's is not. This brings up the obvious mentality of running the ball and short passes to keep Miami and its offense on the field and wear out Buffalo's D. It all boils down to the 4th quarter and conditioning. Even if Miami is down a score or two heading into the final quarter, that's where you will see whether Buffalo is conditioned or not. My thoughts are the latter. There's a good chance Miami lights up the scoreboard in the 4th quarter on a gassed Buffalo defense. Oh, and don't forget about cramping in the second half. Opposing teams consistently have players cramping up later in the game, and Buffalo will be no different.
BONUS X-FACTOR - 2020 blowout loss
I know last year was last year, but Miami's defense was throttled and embarrassed last year in the "win and in" game Week 17 in 2020. Many players still on the roster this year, no matter what they say, have had this game on their mental calendar. You're going to see big hits by Miami's D, and an attitude of reckoning on Sunday. Watch for things to get chippy early on, and expect a few personal fouls along the way. Yes, our defense has something to prove Sunday, and it's going to be evident in their energy.
LLLLEEEETTTT'SSSS GOOOOOO DOLPHINS!
Let's roll with Week 2 of the season with my X-Factors for the home opener against the Bills...
X-Factor #1 - Scheming D to replace RD
Last week for the Pats I stated the importance of Raekwon Davis and his run stopping abilities being key. Unfortunately, I was right in his relevance, as now he is on IR for a bit and there is a void vs the run game. Scheming for Buffalo will have to account for the run game, and I suspect that the Amoeba set on defense will debut this week on running downs. Many people wondered why the Fins didn't line up Amoeba vs the Patriots. That had a lot to do with the personnel NE was using on running plays. 3 WR sets, then handing the ball off. Buffalo will mimic what NE did on short-yardage situations: Stack the O-line, and motion the WR to detect the coverage. Miami most likely will bring the safeties up a bit, and go man-to-man with the CBs, giving the safeties the responsibility of lining up the LBs correctly to plug the right gaps. Also, look for the Fins to show 4 to 7 pass rushers, and peel off to disguise coverages all day. Jaelen Phillips will see more time as well.
X-Factor #2 - Albert Wilson
Albert Wilson will have a key role Sunday with his route running to free up Jaylen Waddle. With Parker running slants and deep hooks on the outside, the designed pick plays at the LOS to create lanes for Waddle will be fun to watch. Once Buffalo adjusts to zone to keep Waddle and Parker in front of the defense, look for Wilson to have opportunities in open space created in these scenarios when Buffalo doubles Gesicki over the middle. Wilson will also be set up nicely for the deep crossing route if Buffalo doubles Waddle and uses their safeties to counter on Parker's side of the field. Keep in mind that this strategy is what opened the field up for Ahmed/Gaskin in the passing game as well. Oh yeah, don't sleep on Tua finding some chunk yardage on the ground when Buffalo plays the Deep Cover 2, and Wilson clears the linebackers out with his routes as well. Of course, Wilson will see about 70% of the offensive snaps if Miami establishes the run early.
X-Factor #3 - Double-covering Diggs
I firmly believe that taking away Diggs is Miami's #1 priority. Most Fin Fans want to focus mainly on keeping Allen in the pocket, and trust X on Diggs with safety help. I think Flo knows that Diggs is their big play guy, and it's the other WRs that benefit from Diggs being taken out of the passing game. Miami's secondary is capable of handling the WR2,/WR3 vs Byron Jones with Nik Needham lurking. That will be the matchup to watch.
X-Factor #4 - Special Teams... again
Our new punter Michael Palardy was dropping dimes inside the 10 yard line all preseason, then proceeded to have a terrible day last week. New England had the benefit of great field position 3 times from bad punting. Flipping the field is crucial vs the Bills. Palardy will have to get back to preseason form and pin the Bills deep in their own territory often for Miami to have opportunities with a shorter field. Look for Palardy to bounce back and show up.
X-Factor #5 - Time of Possession/Humidity
This will be the biggest factor of the game. NE's offense had the ball over 13 minutes longer than Miami's offense opening day. With the weather forecasting 90°F and humid as all get out, keeping our defense off the field and fresh will decide this game. The Miami defense is conditioned to play in South Florida in mid-September, Buffalo's is not. This brings up the obvious mentality of running the ball and short passes to keep Miami and its offense on the field and wear out Buffalo's D. It all boils down to the 4th quarter and conditioning. Even if Miami is down a score or two heading into the final quarter, that's where you will see whether Buffalo is conditioned or not. My thoughts are the latter. There's a good chance Miami lights up the scoreboard in the 4th quarter on a gassed Buffalo defense. Oh, and don't forget about cramping in the second half. Opposing teams consistently have players cramping up later in the game, and Buffalo will be no different.
BONUS X-FACTOR - 2020 blowout loss
I know last year was last year, but Miami's defense was throttled and embarrassed last year in the "win and in" game Week 17 in 2020. Many players still on the roster this year, no matter what they say, have had this game on their mental calendar. You're going to see big hits by Miami's D, and an attitude of reckoning on Sunday. Watch for things to get chippy early on, and expect a few personal fouls along the way. Yes, our defense has something to prove Sunday, and it's going to be evident in their energy.
LLLLEEEETTTT'SSSS GOOOOOO DOLPHINS!
