Man, We Really Screwed Up Bypassing T.j. Watt! | Page 11 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Man, We Really Screwed Up Bypassing T.j. Watt!

I’m aware Davenport was 2018. I was just referencing that he’s the only ideal 2 point player on college tape that was drafted and shown well in a 43 ask that I can recall and he had the frame for it. I did forget about the trade up by the saints however.

Trent Williams has played hurt pretty much all year but yes that’s a legit feat to move that mountain

My bad. Misunderstood you.
 
Watt was appealing for a number of reasons. He played with great instincts and effort, was strong at the POA, showed great bend and flexibility, and he made plays in a variety of ways - deflecting passes, chasing down runs away, and, of course, sacking and pressuring the QB. He also tested as an elite athlete, which is particularly important for a OLB Pass Rushers/Pass Rushers who start wide. I know that Slimm, CK, and I liked him a lot and ranked better than where he was drafted. Having JJ Watt as a brother mattered, too.

I understand why people were high on Harris, but in general, if you're going to take a guy with athletic limitations early, you want him to be outstanding everywhere else, don't want him to be undersized, and you would really like him to have elite hands. Harris had a number of issues beyond his athletic limitations. He's a skilled and instinctive pass rusher, and he still has a chance to be a good player, but his deficiencies both lower his ceiling and increase his chance of failing to develop into something more than a role player.

Every player has a range of outcomes. People who struggle to with talent evaluations tend to randomly assign a best-case scenario to Player X or a worst-case scenario to Player Y, rather than identifying the correct ranges for each. Of course, everyone misses, but the way you miss will speak to the frequency with which you miss. It's no different than a batter, golfer, or shooter (basketball). The consistent/accurate players tend to have pure/efficient swings/shots - giving themselves higher chances to succeed.
Excellent post..

When I studied Harris it came down to him not having a feel for the game, yes he was raw making the late transition from basketball but when he pass rushed I felt it was him experimenting with pass rush moves without any real plan or vision, sometimes being monotonous with certain moves like his spin move, bad timing overall in a lot of cases, when it came to defending the rush, there was little ability to understand what was happening and being able to track while he made moves..being raw with limited athletic numbers is tough to gamble on ya know..

Just the opposite with Watt, would of been a nice selection for us.
 
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I noticed you did not reply with an actual answer. Hindsight is 20/20, so these should be easy questions. Of course, we're also going to ask your opinions before the next draft … where you can put your money where your mouth is so to speak, so start watching tape now. :)
Money where the mouth is, that idea of starting a thread on prospects over the next few years is getting better and better .
 
Money where the mouth is, that idea of starting a thread on prospects over the next few years is getting better and better .

That stuff is fine but I'm never going to ignore situational influence. Slimm or j-off-her-doll or ckparrothead or anyone else as a solo analyst will make a pick here, but it's not necessarily the one he would make if in charge of Dolphins personnel. That is an entirely different dynamic and it's silly to pretend otherwise. All of a sudden he's got multiple paid and trusted employees providing opinions and feedback all year long. More than a year of opinion on most of these prospects. He's got access to interviews and tidbits that none of us have now.

In short, he's got information overload and people pushing him in multiple directions. Some of these guys nailed the prior draft and others flopped. So now he's got to weigh his own opinions in comparison to ones from guys who had the proper pick a year ago, and two years ago, and now they sharply disagree with the guy he favors this time.

That is the real world. It would not be the same dance card. It's the same thing for me when I make sports wagers at home by myself on computer/phone as opposed to the lineup I have when I am in person in Las Vegas, listening to people I respect. It is never the same lineup and amounts. Never. Same thing with the political wagers on Predictit. I had one Las Vegas friend insisting for 2 years that Tennessee was the new Alaska in terms of awful state polling model that always overstates the Democrat to absurd degree in statewide races. He made the largest political wager of his life on Marsha Blackburn. I finally came around, but not to the level he did. However, if I don't know that guy or don't value his opinion then I'm probably not involved period.

I just hate it when fundamental aspects are ignored by the Dolphins, like explosiveness among edge rushers, or arm length for cornerbacks, or drafting older prospects instead of finding more intriguing younger ones.
 
That stuff is fine but I'm never going to ignore situational influence. Slimm or j-off-her-doll or ckparrothead or anyone else as a solo analyst will make a pick here, but it's not necessarily the one he would make if in charge of Dolphins personnel. That is an entirely different dynamic and it's silly to pretend otherwise. All of a sudden he's got multiple paid and trusted employees providing opinions and feedback all year long. More than a year of opinion on most of these prospects. He's got access to interviews and tidbits that none of us have now.

In short, he's got information overload and people pushing him in multiple directions. Some of these guys nailed the prior draft and others flopped. So now he's got to weigh his own opinions in comparison to ones from guys who had the proper pick a year ago, and two years ago, and now they sharply disagree with the guy he favors this time.

That is the real world. It would not be the same dance card. It's the same thing for me when I make sports wagers at home by myself on computer/phone as opposed to the lineup I have when I am in person in Las Vegas, listening to people I respect. It is never the same lineup and amounts. Never. Same thing with the political wagers on Predictit. I had one Las Vegas friend insisting for 2 years that Tennessee was the new Alaska in terms of awful state polling model that always overstates the Democrat to absurd degree in statewide races. He made the largest political wager of his life on Marsha Blackburn. I finally came around, but not to the level he did. However, if I don't know that guy or don't value his opinion then I'm probably not involved period.

I just hate it when fundamental aspects are ignored by the Dolphins, like explosiveness among edge rushers, or arm length for cornerbacks, or drafting older prospects instead of finding more intriguing younger ones.
I agree with that.. Pressure can alter the decision making process..

I think it’s important for the Gm to have full autonomy over personnel, pro and college..That way he can settle into the role and just go with instinct and live or die..

The thing about this Gm role and being called a Pro, it’s really a flawed system..If I was an owner I would have some untraditional ways of hiring my personnel guy..
 
I agree with that.. Pressure can alter the decision making process..

I think it’s important for the Gm to have full autonomy over personnel, pro and college..That way he can settle into the role and just go with instinct and live or die..

The thing about this Gm role and being called a Pro, it’s really a flawed system..If I was an owner I would have some untraditional ways of hiring my personnel guy..

Ross should think about getting Dan Marino more into the mix in terms of personnel/draft decision making. He knows football, has instincts and we couldn't really do much worse than we're doing now.
 
I'm suprised Harris has avoided any criticism for so long. The likes of Tannehill, Landry, Parker and Jones have taken up most posts. He looks average at best and that's being kind. I don't see any playmaking ability that is even near consistent. I said it last season. Another poor draft pick alas.
 
That stuff is fine but I'm never going to ignore situational influence. Slimm or j-off-her-doll or ckparrothead or anyone else as a solo analyst will make a pick here, but it's not necessarily the one he would make if in charge of Dolphins personnel. That is an entirely different dynamic and it's silly to pretend otherwise. All of a sudden he's got multiple paid and trusted employees providing opinions and feedback all year long. More than a year of opinion on most of these prospects. He's got access to interviews and tidbits that none of us have now.

In short, he's got information overload and people pushing him in multiple directions. Some of these guys nailed the prior draft and others flopped. So now he's got to weigh his own opinions in comparison to ones from guys who had the proper pick a year ago, and two years ago, and now they sharply disagree with the guy he favors this time.

That is the real world. It would not be the same dance card. It's the same thing for me when I make sports wagers at home by myself on computer/phone as opposed to the lineup I have when I am in person in Las Vegas, listening to people I respect. It is never the same lineup and amounts. Never. Same thing with the political wagers on Predictit. I had one Las Vegas friend insisting for 2 years that Tennessee was the new Alaska in terms of awful state polling model that always overstates the Democrat to absurd degree in statewide races. He made the largest political wager of his life on Marsha Blackburn. I finally came around, but not to the level he did. However, if I don't know that guy or don't value his opinion then I'm probably not involved period.

I just hate it when fundamental aspects are ignored by the Dolphins, like explosiveness among edge rushers, or arm length for cornerbacks, or drafting older prospects instead of finding more intriguing younger ones.


The Dolphins have crazy access to these kids and they still suck at drafting so I'm not gonna worry one way or another how that relates. More of a fun thing to pass the time and go back and see who said what about who.
 
Well as you already said, hindsight is 20/20 but as an fsu guy I wanted Derwin James over Minkah and Derwin has been absolutely balling this year. Minkah has been good and I think he will continue to be good for us but DJ has been better so far. Either of those guys are great picks though so I still love Minkah.

I'd take Michael Thomas over X Howard, Howard's good but I love Michael Thomas, dude is the definition of a number 1 wr.....Tunsil I'd stick with, I think he can be an all pro LT.
Thank you for your reply! Both are good players, and I can see how you might prefer them. Personally, I'll take a top CB over a top WR, so I'd go with Xavien Howard, but Michael Thomas is a guy I really liked coming out, and he has really played well. The James vs. Fitzpatrick thing may rage for some time, both are good players, but with different roles. Ultimately, I see Minkah as the superior FS and coverage guy, whereas James is more like Reshad Jones and TJ McDonald. I'll go again with the coverage and ball skills over the box skills, so I'm very happy with Fitzpatrick, but am hoping to see him play as a true FS more often starting next year.

Cheers, and thanks for the response.
 
Money where the mouth is, that idea of starting a thread on prospects over the next few years is getting better and better .
Yep, I even started a thread in VIP stating who I would have picked just after the draft and before any rookie minicamps. I encouraged people to post who they would have drafted at those spots. Some people put their selections up there, so in VIP, there is some room for accountability and bragging rights. :D One of my picks was Maurice Hurst, who is a DL for the Oakland Raiders. He was a 5th round pick because of medical reasons, but a 2nd round talent who is doing very well as a rookie.
 
I wanted TJ Watt so bad, I was so pissed when we passed on him, I knew he was gonna be nasty ,the way I put it is that he probably trains and gets pointers from his brother, and HoD older brother probably helps him anyway he can which could only make it easier for any football player, but that could also be said for players who has siblings that didn't out, the same way Nick Bosa will be a monster
 
I’m pretty sure tak McKinley tested pretty similar to Harris and was a 4.8 guy himself. That’s really the only guy that plays in a 3 point ask people could point to with a regards to Miami missing on.

The rest of them are 2 point guys or taco charlton or Charles Harris.

Jordan Willis hasn’t done much. Although he’d fit the ask. Probably gonna go down as just not a very good 43 de class. It happens.

I think some of it comes back to when miami has a real need the options in the class that fit just haven’t been there or worked out.

Takk ran a 4.59, we had needs at OG, S and TE also, no excuse for that type of reach.
 
Watt was appealing for a number of reasons. He played with great instincts and effort, was strong at the POA, showed great bend and flexibility, and he made plays in a variety of ways - deflecting passes, chasing down runs away, and, of course, sacking and pressuring the QB. He also tested as an elite athlete, which is particularly important for a OLB Pass Rushers/Pass Rushers who start wide. I know that Slimm, CK, and I liked him a lot and ranked better than where he was drafted. Having JJ Watt as a brother mattered, too.

I understand why people were high on Harris, but in general, if you're going to take a guy with athletic limitations early, you want him to be outstanding everywhere else, don't want him to be undersized, and you would really like him to have elite hands. Harris had a number of issues beyond his athletic limitations. He's a skilled and instinctive pass rusher, and he still has a chance to be a good player, but his deficiencies both lower his ceiling and increase his chance of failing to develop into something more than a role player.

Every player has a range of outcomes. People who struggle to with talent evaluations tend to randomly assign a best-case scenario to Player X or a worst-case scenario to Player Y, rather than identifying the correct ranges for each. Of course, everyone misses, but the way you miss will speak to the frequency with which you miss. It's no different than a batter, golfer, or shooter (basketball). The consistent/accurate players tend to have pure/efficient swings/shots - giving themselves higher chances to succeed.

After the combine many Draftniks had him in the 3rd round. That 3 cone at 250 is unacceptable.
 
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