Man, We Really Screwed Up Bypassing T.j. Watt! | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Man, We Really Screwed Up Bypassing T.j. Watt!

Eli Apple? Is that one better? :lol:

You can take it all serious if you want. I'm sure others will. I just think it would be cool to see how people do in real time then use that in future years to see who really knows what. Then bump and post in the same thread every year.


I’d take apple as a prospect all over again. Yep. Just like I’d take Charlton all over again.

If they came out tomorrow it wouldn’t be any different.

And guess what they were both plan b targets for Miami. Actually apple was the target til tunsil fell in our lap
 
Shouldn't be difficult. Take all who make a pick while Miami's on the ****. Shouldn't be difficult to have a 'most would have taken . . . '
That said, I'm out. I don't follow college, so I have no idea. When Miami's on the clock, I generally have 3-4 names. I'll be happy with any of them. I suspect there are a few like me.


There's a Charles Harris thread around here somewhere that was created in the few minutes after he was selected where I said I would've taken Tre'Davious White. There was no comparison in terms of how I had them graded out. But it's up to people to do their own post history research and find this type of stuff for themselves if they want to know bad enough.

My evaluations are already out there in the draft forum. Have been for 10 years. I provide fluid positional rankings for people to look at a year ahead of draft day. That's all I do....watch college football. 7 days a week. And go to high school football games on Friday night. I'm glad to provide that for those around here that are interested in that type of assessment. It's mostly for the forward thinkers.

The thing is, you have some posters who post one opinion about one prospect such as "This kid is gonna be great".... and they think they're a scout when the kid ends up a good player. It doesn't work like that. You have to disclose why the kid is going to be great and what he needs to work on. What you perceive his strengths and weaknesses to be. Every single prospect has both.

You've got to have 400-500 other takes on 400-500 other prospects every single year to find out how good you really are. You'll have a lot of misses in there. One "this kid is gonna be great" doesn't make you a talent evaluator.
 
The important thing is it's gotta be live - the votes have to come in during those few minutes when we're on the clock with only who's left on the board. Unfortunately there's no way to accommodate the "I'd trade up for that guy, I wouldn't have traded down there, etc."

May be necessary to tweak 'live.' As long as someone posts his/her pick before the NEXT team picks, that's close enough. I wouldn't mind, 'I WOULDN'T have taken Jordan. I'd have taken Bruce Smith.' What I DON'T want is posting picks the following day, or, posting in November about who SHOULD have been taken. Post the picks when the uncertainty is the same as Miami's.
 
May be necessary to tweak 'live.' As long as someone posts his/her pick before the NEXT team picks, that's close enough. I wouldn't mind, 'I WOULDN'T have taken Jordan. I'd have taken Bruce Smith.' What I DON'T want is posting picks the following day, or, posting in November about who SHOULD have been taken. Post the picks when the uncertainty is the same as Miami's.

Sure, uncertainty and pressure, I agree.
 
And just to address the rest of it:

There are seven rounds in a draft. Who has double digit draft picks working out from a draft?

Since 2016 (which is the only time period relevant to my argument that you can't just throw "typical Dolphins" out there when referring to our drafting):

We have:

Laremy Tunsil
Xavien Howard
Kenyan Drake
Jakeem Grant
Charles Harris
Raekwon McMillan
Davon Godchaux
Vincent Taylor
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Mike Gesicki
Jerome Baker
Durham Smythe
Kalen Ballage
Cornell Armstrong
Jason Sanders

All starting or contributing.

I'd say no significant busts (other than Tankersley at this point).

I would say most teams draft class "contribute" I want to develop players, keep them on our team, and turn them into players who can help us to get a SB.

I will say this. I was happy with this years draft class in comparison to years past.
 
We screw up passing on Bress(twice) Rodgers, Gronk, Brady(6 times) and on and on......it doesn't matter now cause we can't change it.
 
But that doesn't support the other side of the debate.

That's my whole point.

Grier has drafted 3 first rounders. Laremy Tunsil, Charles Harris and MInkah Fitzpatrick.

Harris is in his second year and currently hurt. I think he will be a player for us, others think he will be a bust. The jury is definitely still out.

Two home runs and one maybe is exactly the opposite of boom or bust, considering the volatility of the success rate of first round picks.

Anything that happened before 2016 has no bearing on what's happening now.

I’m not entirely sure why you are arguing with me, since we essentially agree. The only thing I am really advocating is cutting a little slack to long time fans who call into question our drafting. While it is technically accurate that nothing before 3 years ago is relevant now as we are under a new regime, it’s just as accurate that drafting prior to 3 years ago has been so bad that fans have every right to be skeptical still. It’s like telling long time Cleveland fans they are going to be in the Super Bowl next year...they have every right to be skeptical and or critical in their observations until they are well on their way to that Super Bowl. Over my tenure as a fan, the drafting has largely been forgettable to awful, 3 decent drafts is a good start to changing that, but there can be no denying that boom or bust has been pretty accurate overall since JJ was coach.
 
We screw up passing on Bress(twice) Rodgers, Gronk, Brady(6 times) and on and on......it doesn't matter now cause we can't change it.

FWIW, I remember this board when Rodgers was drafted and virtually no one on the sight advocated drafting him because he was a Tedford QB. When it comes to who we draft, I put little stock into what fans project and want.
 
FWIW, I remember this board when Rodgers was drafted and virtually no one on the sight advocated drafting him because he was a Tedford QB. When it comes to who we draft, I put little stock into what fans project and want.

I didn't want him. I was new here but Rodgers had some things I didn't like, such as the weird Tedford sideways ball positioning and a tendency to throw short. I attended a USC vs Cal game in 2004 at the Coliseum in which Rodgers finished with a ridiculously high completion percentage, but it was all safe short throws and at least a half dozen times he refused to throw to deep receivers who were wide open. It was laughable. In fact, there were sorority girls sitting one row behind me who were laughing at Aaron Rodgers: "Why didn't he throw it to that guy? That was a touchdown. How stupid is he?"

That is what I was hearing at the Coliseum, and it matched what I was seeing. Months later just before the draft Merrill Hodge ran a lengthy segment on ESPN spotlighting that game and all the deep open shots that Rodgers refused to attempt.

It was 100% accurate. Cal lost that game in tight fashion against a great USC team that went on to win the national championship. But the game should have been stolen if Aaron Rodgers had a fleck of downfield guts that day.

Obviously that has no relationship to Rodgers that we know now, or throughout his NFL tenure. Very rare situation because the patience worked. It wasn't really adjustment because Packer fans were ready to give up on him. The first couple of years the mechanics did not improve and all the flaws were there. That career could have unfolded markedly different if Rodgers had been forced to play immediately somewhere else.

However, to be fair ckparrothead was the poster here who championed Aaron Rodgers more than anyone leading to that draft. I had no idea who ckparrothead was but his overall analysis stood out as very sharp, no matter if I disagreed from player to player.

The aspect I tried to emphasize from outset here in 2005 is that you have got to look at a player's history and resume, prioritizing early excellence and not merely what he looks like in the final months of the draft process. Otherwise you are going to be fooled time and again. I like TedSlimm because he gets this stuff out there very early...a year or more in advance. Often he finds a guy and places him at or near the top, even if the rest of us have yet to hear of him.

Often I'll know about a freshman mostly because he was prominently involved in bets I won or lost. That is unintentional scouting.
 
I would say most teams draft class "contribute" I want to develop players, keep them on our team, and turn them into players who can help us to get a SB.

I will say this. I was happy with this years draft class in comparison to years past.

How about this year's in comparison to 2016?
 
Derwin is a phenomenal player, but he has t played 4 positions on the Chargers and excelled at it like Minkah has for Miami.

Minkah is going to be an all pro just like Derwin James will.
Maybe Minkah will of this staff doesn’t screw it up first. . He won’t be all
Pro bouncing around series to series.
 
I was singing TJ Watt's praises pre-draft … everybody kept saying I was wrong, he is strictly a 34 LB and we should pass on him. Scheme fit or not, put that kid at DE or switch to a 34 … he is that good.

I kept saying he could turn out to be the best defensive player in the draft, his pass rush reminds me a LOT of his brother, with superior length, leverage, size and speed … tough for any OL to really win against him for very long. No, he doesn't have the elite lateral quickness or get-off of some rushers … but once he engages TJ Watt simply wins. The only question is how long can the OL delay their loss. TJ Watt's pass rush is relenteless, physical, and unstoppable. I've loved the kids game since before the draft, and am in no way surprised he is blossoming into a dominant player.
 
Always?

Who'd we pass over when we took Minkah?

Tunsil?

Howard?


Holy crap you just listed the Dolphins best draft picks of the last decade. And yet still none are top 5 at their position. But carry on acting like we are the Steelers or Patriots.
 
Holy crap you just listed the Dolphins best draft picks of the last decade. And yet still none are top 5 at their position. But carry on acting like we are the Steelers or Patriots.

Lol. Someone said we "always" pass over superstars for busts or mediocre players (or something like that).

I was just asking who he would have rather had than those three guys from our last few drafts.

It wasn't a commentary on how dreadful we've historically been at drafting.

But thanks for the mini-rant. Refreshing.
 
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